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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| π¦πΊ Australia | β | July Housing Construction Permits [Month-on-Month] | Graphical display | |||||
| π¨π³ China | β | August Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) | Graphical display | |||||
| π«π· France | β | August Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) | Graphical display | |||||
| π©πͺ Germany | β | August Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) | Graphical display | |||||
| πͺπΊ Europe | β | August Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) | Graphical display | |||||
| π¬π§ England | β | August Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) | Graphical display | |||||
| πͺπΊ Europe | β | July unemployment rate | Graphical display |
* We have selected indicators with high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Important remarks and market closures
| kinds | time | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed | - | πΊπΈ America | - |
| Closed | - | π¨π¦ Canada | - |
Today's Outlook
The market is still stuck in the low range of the downward trend that occurred after Chairman Powell's remarks, and no clear movement to break out has been confirmed. With the US market closed today, there is a possibility that price movements will be limited due to a decrease in trading participants. In the short term, the market is likely to remain within a range, and careful consideration is required when deciding to sell on dips or rallies, given the decline in liquidity.
Although the market is currently at the top of the uptrend formed after Chairman Powell's remarks, there is no clear sign of a breakout. With the U.S. market closed today, there is a possibility that price movement will be limited due to reduced liquidity. In the short term, the market is likely to remain in the high range, and new factors are likely to be needed to pursue higher prices. Both buying on dips and selling on rallies require careful consideration, taking into account the fluctuations in price movements due to thin trading.
Although the market is currently at the top of the uptrend formed after Chairman Powell's remarks, there is no clear sign of a breakout. With the U.S. market closed today, there is a possibility that price movements will be limited due to reduced liquidity resulting from a decline in market participants. In the short term, the market is likely to remain in a narrow range at high levels, and new factors will be needed to test the upside. This is a time when careful consideration is needed, taking into account both buying on dips and selling on rallies, and taking into account the range of price movements.
It has maintained a gentle upward trend so far, and although the momentum itself is not strong, it continues to move up from the lower end. With the US market closed today, there is a possibility that price movements will be limited due to reduced liquidity. In the short term, it is likely that buying on dips will be encouraged, assuming the price remains within the channel, but caution is needed regarding fluctuations due to sudden flows. Given the thin liquidity, this is a day that requires careful response, including selling on rallies.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
The USD/JPY traded without a clear sense of direction throughout the day due to the US market being closed and a lack of major trading material. The European market also saw no major movements, with prices fluctuating within a limited range.
Today, EURUSD saw limited movement to test the highs of the uptrend that followed Chairman Powell's remarks. Although buying led the way in European markets, momentum gradually slowed due to the limited number of trading participants, partly due to the US market being closed.
Today, GBP/USD tried to break through the highs of the uptrend formed after Chairman Powell's remarks, but lost momentum. Although buying became dominant, price movements were sluggish due to the US market being closed and trading participants were limited, and time ran out.
Today, AUD/USD saw buying dominate in the European market, with moves to update the previous day's high. In the New York market that followed, due to the US market being closed, there was little significant price movement, and the trend continued to be directionless. Overall, the price range was limited, but there were many instances throughout the day when the pair was conscious of moving within an ascending channel, suggesting a certain degree of stability.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| Price Fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
The market remains at the lows of the downward trend following Chairman Powell's remarks, lacking direction.
With the US market closed, investors are aware of the possibility of limited price movements due to reduced liquidity.
In the short term, the situation is likely to continue with a range-bound attack and defense
Expected range
The downside is expected to be around 146.80
On the upside, the area around 147.50 is likely to become an upper resistance zone.
Overall, we expect the price to move in the range of 146.80 to 147.50.
tactics
Considering the decline in liquidity, we will focus on short-term range rotation
When buying on dips, confirm support at the lower end and then take a small stance
Even when aiming for a sell-off, be careful of sudden price movements
trigger
A clear break above 147.50 could confirm a short-term recovery.
If it breaks below 146.80, it will likely weaken.
Be aware of unexpected flows that may occur during New York hours when liquidity is low
Nullification Conditions
If a significant break below 146.80 occurs, the range assumption will be denied.
Even if the closing price breaks above 147.50, tactics will need to be reconsidered.
If volatility expands more than expected, invalidate the range strategy.
Risk Event
Decrease in liquidity due to US market closure
Small economic indicators and statements by important figures released during European hours
Sudden geopolitical risks and stock market fluctuations could have an impact on the dollar/yen exchange rate
Position Management
Keep position size to about half of normal size
Take profits frequently, aiming for 10 to 20 pips
Place stop losses at the nearest support/resistance level to avoid excessive risk
Checklist
Can the 146.80 support level be maintained?
Will there be a reaction at the upper resistance around 147.50?
Abrupt price movements due to reduced liquidity
Market Summary
Although it is in the high range of the rising wave, there is no clear breakout and it seems to be stagnating.
Liquidity is declining due to the US market closure, and price ranges are likely to be limited.
In the short term, the market is likely to remain in a range-bound state while waiting for new information.
Expected range
Expected range: 1.0880β1.0950
On the downside, the area around 1.0880 is likely to be seen as a potential pullback point.
On the upside, around 1.0950 is likely to be a benchmark for pullback selling.
tactics
Basically, range rotation is used
As the price approaches the lower limit, consider picking up shallow dips with small lots after confirming a rebound.
When approaching the upper limit, consider selling on the rebound in installments and avoid chasing.
trigger
The 5-minute chart confirmed a breakout above 1.0950 and the increase in trading volume indicates a continuation of the upward trend.
If the recovery is slow after breaking below 1.0880, it is likely to be a sign that the downward trend is dominant.
Focus on early London trading and flow changes before and after the fix
Nullification Conditions
If the closing price remains above 1.0960, reconsider the range assumption.
If the market shows signs of breaking below 1.0870, we will also review our tactics.
When a high volatility trend is confirmed with successive sudden rises and falls in the middle of the range
Risk Event
Thin trading and temporary flows due to US market closure
Eurozone index revisions and headlines
Contagion of sudden fluctuations in stocks and interest rates
Position Management
The size is kept to 50% or less of the normal size.
Take profits in increments of 10-20 pips
Set stop loss at 15-25 pips outside the most recent high and low, and maintain a risk-reward ratio of 1:1 or more.
Checklist
Isn't the order book thinning due to the battle between 1.0880 and 1.0950?
Early London market direction and whether there was a reversal before or after the fix
Timing of change from contraction to expansion of volatility on 5-minute chart
Market Summary
While remaining in the high range of the rising wave, it has been difficult to break out of the uptrend.
Liquidity is likely to decrease due to the US market closure, limiting price ranges
In the short term, the market is in a range as investors wait for new information.
Expected range
Expected range: 1.2700β1.2760
On the downside, around 1.2700 is likely to be seen as a potential pullback point.
On the upside, the 1.2760 level is likely to be a benchmark for pullback selling.
tactics
The tactic is based on range rotation and skipping the middle slope.
As the price approaches the lower limit, consider picking up small amounts on dips after confirming a rebound.
When the price approaches the upper limit, consider selling on the rebound in installments and avoid buying on the rise.
trigger
The 5-minute chart confirmed a breakout above 1.2760 and the increase in trading volume indicates a continuation of the upward trend.
A slowdown in the recovery after breaking below 1.2700 should be treated as a weakness signal.
Keep an eye on the early London market and flow changes before and after the fix
Nullification Conditions
If the closing price remains above 1.2770, we will reassess the range assumption.
If a break below 1.2685 becomes established, we will reconsider our tactics.
If a higher-than-expected volatility shift is confirmed
Risk Event
Thin trading and transient flow fluctuations due to the US market closure
UK and Eurozone index revisions and headlines of key figures
Contagion of sudden fluctuations in stocks and interest rates
Position Management
Limit position size to 50% or less of normal size
Take profits in installments of 10-20 pips
Set stop loss at 15-25 pips outside the most recent high and low, and maintain a risk-reward ratio of 1 or more.
Checklist
Confirmation of thickness and execution of 1.2700 and 1.2760
Early London market direction and whether there was a reversal before or after the fix
Timing of change from 5-minute volatility contraction to expansion
Market Summary
Maintaining a gentle upward channel, but momentum is limited
The trend of cutting the lower price will continue, but there is a possibility that the price movement will be limited due to the US market closure.
Environments where caution is required against fluctuations due to sudden flow
Expected range
Expected range: 0.6680β0.6740
On the downside, around 0.6680 is likely to be seen as a support level.
On the upside, the 0.6740 level is likely to be a benchmark for pullback selling.
tactics
The strategy is to buy on dips, but be cautious when prices are high.
If it approaches the lower limit, check for a rebound and pick up small amounts.
There is room to consider selling on a pullback near the upper limit of the range.
trigger
If the price clearly breaks above 0.6740, the possibility of a channel widening will be considered.
A break below 0.6680 would signal short-term weakness
Keep an eye on the direction of the market in early London hours and the thin trading flow during New York hours
Nullification Conditions
If the market maintains 0.6750 on a closing price basis, we will reconsider our buying assumptions.
If the 0.6670 level breaks and holds, we will need to reconsider our tactics.
If the expected range does not function due to a sudden change to high volatility, prioritize withdrawal
Risk Event
Reduced liquidity and temporary flows due to US market closures
Sudden fluctuations in Australian economic indicators and resource prices
Cross-flows due to the spread of stock market and interest rate trends
Position Management
Position size is limited to about 50% of normal size
Take profits in installments of 10-20 pips
Limit your risk by placing stop losses 15-25 pips outside the most recent highs and lows.
Checklist
Will the 0.6680 support hold?
Whether or not the price will break through 0.6740 and how the volume will change
Whether sudden flows will occur due to a decrease in liquidity
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
USDJPY remained range bound throughout the day as the US market was closed today.
summary
There were no major economic indicators or events, resulting in price movements lacking direction.
Although there was some buying in the European market, the price range was limited during New York trading hours.
Today's price movements
In European markets, the index rose to around 147.80, but then stagnated.
Participation was limited in the New York market, and the price remained small, moving around 147.50 to 147.80.
Background/materials
Due to the closure of the US market, liquidity was reduced, making it difficult for large price movements to occur.
In terms of the external environment, the dollar's overall movements have calmed down, and a wait-and-see mood has spread across the foreign exchange market.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the 4-hour chart, the upper limit of the range was tested but not broken and the downside was limited.
The immediate support is seen around 147.50, with resistance around 148.00.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the price continues to move around the moving average line, and the medium-term direction has not yet been solidified.
On the other hand, it has continued to stagnate in the high range since August, and attention is focused on whether it will exceed 148.00.
Impressions
There was a lack of material today, resulting in a particularly sluggish market.
It seems necessary to check the market's reaction again after the market reopens.
Trading Impressions
In the short term, the market conditions were such that it was easy to be aware of both buying on dips and selling on rallies.
It appears that many participants were simply adjusting their positions rather than building new ones.
Checklist
Will it be able to break through the upper limit around 148.00?
Will the support around 147.50 hold?
Will liquidity return to the US market after the market holiday?
Looking back
Today, EURUSD continued the upward trend following Chairman Powell's remarks but failed to reach a new high, and trading was limited due to the US holiday.
summary
In the European market, buying temporarily took the lead, but momentum subsequently lost momentum and the market remained small.
With the US market closed, there were few participants and the price range remained limited.
Today's price movements
In the European market, the price rose to around 1.0920, showing signs of movement in line with the previous day's high.
In the New York market, the range movement continued around 1.0900 to 1.0920, lacking direction.
Background/materials
Active trading was held back mainly due to reduced liquidity caused by the US market closure.
Market participants took a wait-and-see stance as recent developments focused on comments from Federal Reserve officials and the inflation outlook.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the 4-hour chart, the price continued to fluctuate along the uptrend.
The 1.0900 level is likely to be seen as short-term support, while the 1.0930 level is likely to be seen as resistance.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the price has remained near the upper limit of the range since July, making it difficult to determine the direction.
The deviation from the moving average is small, and the medium-term strength and weakness are balanced.
Impressions
The overall market remained quiet today due to a lack of trading material.
In the short term, the trend was to wait for an opportunity for an increase in participants.
Trading Impressions
It seemed like there was a mix of people trying to buy on dips and people thinking about selling on rallies.
A lack of direction led to more corrective trading rather than aggressive position building
Checklist
Can the support around 1.0900 hold?
Can it break through the upper limit around 1.0930?
Will the recovery of liquidity after the reopening of the US market lead to a return of momentum?
Looking back
Today, GBP/USD continued the upward trend after Chairman Powell's remarks and attempted to reach a high, but was unable to break out and stalled.
summary
In the European market, buying temporarily prevailed and prices tested the high range.
Liquidity decreased due to the US market closure, limiting price movements.
Today's price movements
In the European market, the price rose to around 1.2770, testing the previous day's high.
In the New York market, the price was held within a range of around 1.2740 to 1.2770, with little sense of direction.
Background/materials
Active trading was restrained due to limited market participants due to the US market closure.
The dollar's overall movements were calm, and there was a lack of strong news for the pound alone.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the 4-hour chart, the price was seen to be pushing back after testing the high.
Support was seen around 1.2740, and resistance around 1.2780.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the price continues to stagnate in the upper 1.2700 range, limiting the medium-term direction.
The price continues to move around the moving average line, maintaining a balanced state.
Impressions
Buying temporarily prevailed, but the thin trading volume due to the market closure weighed on the market.
In the absence of any positive new information, price movements were inevitably limited.
Trading Impressions
There were many instances where buying at dips and selling on rebounds with an eye on higher prices intersected.
Participants were conspicuous for limiting themselves to short-term trading and avoiding aggressive position building.
Checklist
Will support around 1.2740 hold?
Can we break above the 1.2780 level?
Will price movements expand as liquidity recovers after the US market reopens?
Looking back
Today, AUD/USD was dominated by buying in the European market, reaching a new high from the previous day, but in the New York market, there was little movement due to the US market closure.
summary
In the European market, buying was ahead and the rising channel was in focus.
The number of trading participants in the New York market was limited, and the market continued to lack direction.
Today's price movements
During European trading hours, it rose to around 0.6700, surpassing the previous day's high.
During New York hours, the price remained in a range of around 0.6680 to 0.6700, with price movements limited.
Background/materials
The US market was closed, reducing liquidity and reducing active trading overall.
There was a lack of new materials from Australia, and the country was vulnerable to the effects of external factors.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the 4-hour chart, the price is moving within an ascending channel and has tested the highs.
Support was seen around 0.6680, and resistance around 0.6720.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, it has remained near the upper limit of the range since July.
The overall direction was difficult to see from the relationship with the moving average, and it was easy to imagine the range continuing.
Impressions
Buying dominated the European market, but thin trading due to the market closures kept prices in check.
In the short term, the upward channel remained intact, but no aggressive moves were observed.
Trading Impressions
The trend of buying dips became dominant, but it was difficult to connect this to a trend of chasing higher prices.
As the market as a whole adopted a wait-and-see attitude, short-term trading adjustments were the focus
Checklist
Will the support around 0.6680 hold?
Can it break through the resistance near 0.6720?
Will liquidity return to the US market after the market holiday?
FX Journal