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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★★ | August Consumer Price Index (HICP, preliminary figures) [Year-on-year comparison] |
Graphical display
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Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★★ | August Consumer Price Index (HICP Core Index, Preliminary) [Year-on-Year Comparison] |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | August Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | August ISM Manufacturing Industry Index |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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* We have selected indicators with high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
news
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino's remarks: Somewhat cautious stance on interest rate hikes
After European investors entered the market, dollar buying took the lead due to rising US long-term interest rates.
Today's Outlook
Today, the USD/JPY has seen a slight increase in the selling of the yen following comments by Deputy Governor Himino of the Bank of Japan, and the market is trying to gauge the extent of the impact. While determining whether the momentum behind the selling of the yen caused by the comments will subside, short-term strategies such as buying on dips and selling on rallies are likely to be in focus.
Today, EURUSD tested the highs of the uptrend following Chairman Powell's remarks the previous day, but the momentum failed to continue and the trend is continuing to stall. Going forward, attention will be focused on the results of US economic indicators, and depending on their contents, there is a possibility that the market will once again move toward higher highs. Overall, it is expected to remain within a range, with preparations for both buying on dips and selling on rallies likely to continue.
Today, GBP/USD continued the upward trend following Chairman Powell's comments the previous day, testing the highs, but was unable to break out and is now stalling. Market participants may be taking a wait-and-see approach ahead of the release of US economic data, and depending on the data, there is a possibility that the highs may be retested. In the short term, it is likely that investors will be conscious of buying on dips and selling on rallies, while assuming a range-bound trading strategy.
Buying continues to flow in smoothly, but as the market is approaching the resistance level seen on the daily chart, the possibility of a correction phase is on the horizon. While the European market has shown some resilience, there have also been times when the upper limit has been heavy. In the short term, we should be wary of chasing higher prices, but we should generally prioritize a stance of targeting dips.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
Today, USDJPY saw strong selling of the yen from the beginning, driven by comments from Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino and rising long-term interest rates, which led to a sudden buying spree. However, the top of the downward wave formed after Chairman Powell's comments was noticed, and there were times when it was pushed down by selling on a rebound. As a result, the price fluctuated widely up and down, but ultimately remained within a range.
Today, the EURUSD saw dollar buying dominate on the back of rising US long-term interest rates, temporarily increasing downward pressure. However, the market did not gain enough momentum to break below important support levels, limiting downside. There were some attempts to recover in the New York market, but the momentum was lacking and time ran out.
Today, the GBP/USD saw dollar buying following a rise in US long-term interest rates, and downward pressure intensified from the start of the day. The market became aware of the weight of the market after it fell below the lower limit of the upward trend formed after Chairman Powell's remarks.
Today, AUD/USD saw dollar buying dominate on the back of rising US long-term interest rates, and downward pressure from the European market intensified. Although it did not clearly break below important support levels, the overall market trend appeared to be somewhat unstable.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| Price Fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
USDJPY continues to be dominated by buying, as yen selling intensifies following comments by Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino.
The market is trying to gauge the sustainability of the effects of the comments and is searching for a direction.
Expected range
The lower limit is expected to be around 147.80, and the upper limit is expected to be around 148.50.
While the price movement will remain within the range, the focus will be on whether or not it will break out above.
tactics
The basic strategy is to prioritize buying on dips
On the other hand, when prices are in the high range, it is necessary to be aware of pullback selling and to respond flexibly by using range rotation.
trigger
Possibility of buying strengthening if it breaks above 148.50
On the other hand, if it falls below 147.80, it will be a time to consider a short-term correction.
Nullification Conditions
A break below 147.50 negates the dip buying scenario
Sudden rises and falls without volume also lead to a reassessment of strategies.
Risk Event
US economic indicators (ISM and employment-related data)
Changes in interest rate outlook due to comments from Fed officials
Changes in dollar demand due to geopolitical risks and stock market trends
Position Management
Lot size should be kept smaller than usual and decentralized entry should be the basis
Take profits around 148.40-148.50, stop loss set below 147.50
Prioritize short-term trading and maintain a stance of refraining from long-term positions
Checklist
Can the support around 147.80 be maintained?
Can it break through the resistance around 148.50?
Will US data and key figures increase volatility?
Market Summary
The EURUSD tried to rise after Chairman Powell's remarks the previous day, but the momentum was not sustained and the trend has continued.
The market is waiting for the release of US economic indicators to gauge direction.
Expected range
The downside is expected to be around 1.0870, and the upside is expected to be around 1.0930.
With a major event coming up, we are looking to see the price move within a range.
tactics
The basic strategy is to prioritize buying on dips while emphasizing range rotation.
Be mindful of pullbacks and try to deal with both sides
trigger
A clear break above 1.0930 could lead to buying.
If it breaks below 1.0870, selling pressure is likely to be felt in the short term.
Key US economic indicators trigger short-term fluctuations
Nullification Conditions
A break below 1.0850 would negate the buy-on-the-dip scenario.
On the other hand, if the price breaks above 1.0950 and settles there, the premise of the range strategy will collapse.
Risk Event
US economic indicators (ISM, employment-related data, etc.)
Changes in the outlook for monetary policy due to comments from Federal Reserve officials
European inflation data and business confidence index results
Position Management
Lot size is adjusted to half of normal size, and decentralized entry is the basis.
Take profits around 1.0920-1.0930, stop loss set below 1.0850
Focus on short-term trades and prioritize holding off on long-term positions
Checklist
Will the support around 1.0870 hold?
Can it break through the resistance near 1.0930?
Will volatility increase after the US data release?
Market Summary
GBP/USD tried to reach a high after Chairman Powell's remarks the previous day, but was unable to break out and stalled, continuing its wait-and-see trend.
Market participants appear to be holding back on active trading ahead of the release of US economic indicators.
Expected range
The lower limit is expected to be around 1.2730, and the upper limit is expected to be around 1.2790.
Until the release of US indicators, it is likely that the market will remain within this range.
tactics
The basic strategy is to emphasize range rotation and use both buying on dips and selling on rallies.
An approach that aims for short-term price fluctuations is considered more effective than trend following.
trigger
A clear break above 1.2790 could lead to buying.
If it breaks below 1.2730, selling pressure will likely intensify.
US economic indicators will determine short-term direction
Nullification Conditions
A break below 1.2700 negates the buying-on-the-dip scenario
Conversely, if the price breaks above 1.2820 and settles there, it will be difficult to implement a sell-on-rebound strategy.
Risk Event
Release of US ISM index and employment-related data
Changes in interest rate outlook due to comments from Fed officials
Changes in pound supply and demand due to UK economic indicators (PMI, etc.)
Position Management
Keep lot size small and enter in a dispersed manner
Take profits around 1.2780, stop loss set below 1.2700
Prioritize short-term turnover and maintain a stance of refraining from long-term positions
Checklist
Will the support around 1.2730 hold?
Can it break through the resistance near 1.2790?
Will US economic data increase market liquidity and direction?
Market Summary
AUD/USD continues to see steady buying, but as it approaches the daily resistance level, there is concern that it may be entering a correction phase.
Although the European market showed signs of stability, there was concern that the market was struggling to move higher.
Expected range
The downside is expected to be around 0.6670, and the upside is expected to be around 0.6720.
While keeping in mind the trend within the range, the focus is on whether or not it will break out above the range.
tactics
The basic stance is to prioritize buying on dips
Avoid chasing high prices and consider small entries after confirming support
trigger
A breakout above 0.6720 could increase buying pressure
Conversely, if it falls below 0.6670, beware of a deepening short-term correction
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks below 0.6650, the premise for buying on dips will collapse.
Stagnation accompanied by a sudden drop in trading volume also invalidates the strategy.
Risk Event
Australian economic indicators (trade balance and housing-related data)
US economic indicators and the overall movement of the dollar
China-related news impact on Australian dollar
Position Management
Start with half the usual lot size and increase it after confirming the pullback.
The target for taking profits is around 0.6710 to 0.6720, and the target for cutting losses is below 0.6650.
Focus on short-term trading and refrain from long-term positions
Checklist
Will the support near 0.6670 hold?
Can it break through the upper limit around 0.6720?
Should we pay attention to changes in liquidity before and after the release of Australian and US indexes?
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
Following the comments of Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino and the rise in long-term interest rates, the yen saw a surge in selling, but the downward trend following Chairman Powell's comments brought it back down and it remained within the range.
summary
In the early stages, yen selling led to a surge in dollar buying.
However, at the highs, it was pushed down by selling on rebounds, and after fluctuating up and down, it landed within the range.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the yen rose to around 148.20 as investors sold the yen following the comments.
After European trading hours, there was a sell-off, pushing the price back down to around 147.80.
During New York trading hours, the price fluctuated up and down, but eventually settled at around 148.00.
Background/materials
Comments by the Bank of Japan's deputy governor sparked speculation about monetary policy, accelerating yen selling.
The recovery in US long-term interest rates has supported the dollar
On the other hand, the downward resistance that has been brought into focus after Chairman Powell's remarks has limited the upside.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the 4-hour chart, the 148.20 area is seen as resistance.
The lower end of the range is functioning as support around 147.80, making the upper and lower limits of the short-term range clear.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the range continues to form around 148.00, making it difficult to determine the direction.
The moving average is trending sideways, and the trend is continuing to be stable over the medium term.
Impressions
There was a unidirectional movement in response to the material, but it eventually converged into a range.
The ups and downs of the market continue, and the market still seems to lack direction.
Trading Impressions
The market was suitable for short-term trading, with both buying on dips and selling on rallies working well.
On the other hand, if you chase high prices or sell low prices without paying attention to the range, you will likely be swayed in many situations.
Checklist
Can the support around 147.80 be maintained?
Can it break through the resistance around 148.20?
How much will US interest rate trends affect the dollar-yen exchange rate?
Looking back
Dollar buying prevailed against the backdrop of rising US long-term interest rates, but important support was maintained and the downside was limited.
summary
In the early stages, dollar buying took the lead, temporarily increasing downward pressure.
However, it did not make a clear breakout, and while it tried to recover in the New York market, it lacked momentum.
Today's price movements
In the European market, the price fell to around 1.0880 before declining.
In the New York market, there was a movement to test the 1.0900 level, but it failed to grow and remained within the range.
Background/materials
Rising US long-term interest rates supported dollar buying
However, European economic indicators were limited, and there were few factors to accelerate the selling of the euro.
The entire market took a wait-and-see stance, waiting for US economic indicators
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the 4-hour chart, the 1.0880 level acted as support.
The upside is heavy around 1.0920-1.0930, and a short-term range is forming.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the range of 1.0850 to 1.0950 continues, and the direction is unclear even in the medium term.
The moving average line is moving sideways, and the trend of holding is continuing.
Impressions
There were temporary movements in response to the information, but in the end it remained within the range.
While the market has confirmed that support is being maintained, it is in a state of searching for the next clue.
Trading Impressions
The market was one in which both buying on dips and selling on rallies were effective.
Participants who prioritized short-term price fluctuation rather than following a single direction were prominent
Checklist
Can the support around 1.0880 hold?
Can it break through the resistance near 1.0930?
Will US economic indicators provide a stronger sense of direction?
Looking back
Dollar buying progressed against the backdrop of rising US long-term interest rates, and GBP/USD fell below the lower limit of the upward trend and became weighed down.
summary
Dollar buying dominated the early stages, increasing downward pressure
Buying interest declined after the price fell below the lower limit of the upward trend following Chairman Powell's remarks.
Today's price movements
In the European market, it fell to around 1.2730 before recovering only slightly.
In the New York market, the price continued to fluctuate around 1.2740 to 1.2760, and no significant rebound occurred.
Background/materials
US long-term interest rates rose, supporting dollar demand
There was little new information from the UK side, and the relative strength of the dollar was taken into consideration.
Markets refrained from active trading ahead of US economic data releases
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the 4-hour chart, 1.2730 is seen as short-term support.
On the upside, resistance was around 1.2770, indicating the formation of a short-term range.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the price continues to trade in the high 1.2700 range.
The moving average remains flat, making it difficult to determine the medium-term direction.
Impressions
The market has become increasingly heavy, mainly due to dollar buying caused by rising interest rates.
On the other hand, it has not led to a clear trend, and the market continues to wait for further information.
Trading Impressions
While sell-offs tended to be dominant, short-term dip targets also worked locally.
Large position building was avoided, and short-term price fluctuations were the main focus.
Checklist
Will support near 1.2730 hold?
Can it break through the resistance around 1.2770?
Will US economic indicators change the market trend?
Looking back
Dollar buying prevailed against the backdrop of rising US long-term interest rates, and AUD/USD came under downward pressure but did not break support.
summary
The Australian dollar weakened as dollar buying increased in the European market.
Although important support was maintained, the instability of the direction was noted.
Today's price movements
During European trading hours, it fell to around 0.6680, increasing downward pressure.
In the New York market, there was a small rebound testing the 0.6700 level, but the momentum was limited.
Background/materials
Rising US long-term interest rates boosted dollar demand, limiting the Australian dollar's upside
There was little new news on the Australian side, and the dollar continued to dominate the market.
The overall market was in a mood of refraining from active trading ahead of the release of US economic indicators.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The 0.6680 level was seen as support and served as a short-term downside indicator.
On the upside, resistance was around 0.6720, and the trend of forming a range continued.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the price continues to fluctuate between 0.6650 and 0.6750, making it difficult to determine the medium-term direction.
The moving averages are showing a flat trend, supporting continued cross-holding.
Impressions
There were times when downward pressure intensified, but it did not lead to a decisive break of support.
Buying and selling were mixed, and the overall market was left feeling unstable due to a lack of clues.
Trading Impressions
Both buying on dips and selling on rallies were likely to be tested, making it a good day for short-term trading.
As there was no clear direction, trading was centered on range-based rotation.
Checklist
Will the support around 0.6680 hold?
Can it break through the resistance near 0.6720?
Will the results of US economic indicators strengthen the direction?
FX Journal