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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇺 Australia | ★★ | April-June quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) [change from previous quarter] |
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Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇦🇺 Australia | ★ | April-June quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) [Year-on-year change] |
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Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇨🇳 China | ★ | August Caixin Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) |
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Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇫🇷 France | ★ | August Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) |
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Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | August Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★ | August Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇬🇧 England | ★ | August Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised) |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★ | July Wholesale Price Index (PPI) [MoM] |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★ | July Wholesale Price Index (PPI) [Year-on-year comparison] |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | July Employment Trend Survey (JOLTS) Number of job openings |
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Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | July New Manufacturing Orders [Month-on-month] |
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Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Beige Book: Report on Economic Conditions of the Federal Reserve Banks of the United States |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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* We have selected indicators with high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Important remarks and market closures
| kinds | time | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statements by VIPs | 🇪🇺 Europe | Statement by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde |
Today's Outlook
Today, USD/JPY attempted to break out of the downtrend following Chairman Powell's remarks the previous day, but was unable to break out completely and was pushed back, continuing the trend. There is a possibility that the price may test the highs again, so caution is needed regarding short-term price movements. However, overall, there is no clear sense of direction, and the price is still mainly moving within a range. In the short term, this is a situation where it is necessary to respond with an awareness of both buying on dips and selling on rallies.
Despite a large sell-off the previous day, EURUSD ultimately settled within a range today, failing to show a clear direction. While the trend in US long-term interest rates remains a concern, price movements are likely to be limited. Assuming that the price will remain within a range today, it is likely that a strategy combining buying on dips and selling on rallies will be considered.
Today, GBP/USD broke below the uptrend that followed Chairman Powell's comments the previous day, and with no lower shadows remaining on the daily chart, downward sentiment spread among all market participants. The overall trend is likely to be dominated by movements focused on pullback selling. There may be a short-term correction phase in reaction to the large movement, but in that case, strategies that seek out good opportunities to sell on pullbacks will be in focus. Essentially, this is a time when you want to be aware of the downward trend and carefully determine the right timing.
AUD/USD saw a big sell-off the previous day, but failed to break below clear support, and traders were aware of the firmness of the downside. On the other hand, the daily chart also appears to have bounced back from resistance, meaning that market views will vary depending on traders' time frames. While there is a possibility of a small rebound in the European market, it is more important to wait for price movements to solidify in one direction rather than rushing to make a decision. In the short term, this situation calls for flexible responses, considering both buying on dips and selling on rallies.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
Today, USD/JPY briefly reached a new high from the previous day, but then lost momentum and failed to break out clearly. The market has yet to break out of the uptrend formed after Chairman Powell's remarks, and it remains unsure of direction. While buying temporarily became dominant in the European market, caution was seen in chasing higher prices.
Today, EURUSD tested the previous day's lows, but quickly rebounded. Since then, no major news has been seen, and the upside has been limited, leaving the market lacking direction. While there have been times since Europe when small buybacks have prevailed, aggressive follow-up has been refrained from.
Today, GBP/USD tested the previous day's lows, but rebounded early and turned upward. After that, there was no movement aimed at selling on the rebound, and the day ended in a quiet adjustment phase.
Today, AUD/USD was trading steadily as buying gradually came in from the European market and this trend continued into the New York market. Buying prevailed in the Australian dollar, and it recovered all of the previous day's losses.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| Price Fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
The USD/JPY was unable to break out of the downward trend following Chairman Powell's remarks the previous day and was pushed back, remaining mostly within a range.
In the short term, there is a possibility that the market will test the highs again, and the market remains vulnerable to fluctuations.
Expected range
The lower limit is expected to be around 147.80, and the upper limit is expected to be around 148.50.
It is difficult to establish a clear direction, and the development tends to move up and down.
tactics
The basic stance is to emphasize range rotation and flexibly use buying on dips and selling on rallies.
Avoid chasing high prices and enter only after checking the reaction at support and resistance levels.
trigger
If it clearly breaks above 148.50, buying sentiment may strengthen.
If it breaks below 147.80, selling pressure is likely to be felt in the short term.
US economic data could provide short-term momentum
Nullification Conditions
If the price falls below 147.50, the dip buying strategy will be invalidated.
On the other hand, if the price breaks above 148.70 and settles there, the premise of the pullback selling strategy will collapse.
Risk Event
US economic indicators (ISM, employment-related, etc.)
Changes in interest rate outlook due to comments from Fed officials
Risk aversion due to stock market and geopolitical factors
Position Management
Keep lot sizes modest and aim for diversified entries
Take profits around 148.40-148.50 as a guideline, and set stop loss below 147.50
Focus on short-term trades and keep long-term positions moderate
Checklist
Can the support around 147.80 be maintained?
Can it break through the resistance around 148.50?
Will US economic data lead to increased volatility?
Market Summary
EURUSD was heavily sold off the previous day but remains within a range and continues to lack direction.
Trends in US long-term interest rates will continue to be a focus of attention, but price movements are likely to be limited
Expected range
The downside is expected to be around 1.0870, and the upside is expected to be around 1.0930.
The market is mainly trading within a range and new information is needed to break out.
tactics
The basic approach is to focus on range rotation and flexibly combine buying on dips and selling on rallies.
In the short term, it is effective to enter after confirming support and resistance.
trigger
A clear break above 1.0930 is likely to increase buying interest.
A break below 1.0870 will increase selling pressure and signal a short-term downside.
US economic indicators could be a short-term variable
Nullification Conditions
If the price breaks below 1.0850, the dip buying strategy will be negated.
On the other hand, if the price rises above 1.0950 and settles there, the premise of the pullback selling strategy will collapse.
Risk Event
US economic indicators (ISM, employment-related, etc.)
Changes in interest rate outlook due to comments from Fed officials
European inflation data and business sentiment index
Position Management
Start with half the usual lot size and aim for diversified entries.
Take profits around 1.0920-1.0930, set stop loss below 1.0850
Focus on short-term trading and keep long-term positions conservative
Checklist
Can the support around 1.0870 hold?
Can it break through the resistance near 1.0930?
Will US economic indicators lead to a breakout from the range?
Market Summary
The GBP/USD pair broke below the uptrend following Chairman Powell's remarks the previous day, and the lack of a lower wick on the daily chart indicates a growing downward trend.
Overall, the market continues to be dominated by a tendency to sell on rebounds.
Expected range
The downside is expected to be around 1.2680, and the upside is expected to be around 1.2760.
While there may be a short-term recovery, we expect the price to continue moving within a range.
tactics
The basic strategy is to prioritize selling on rebounds.
It is effective to take advantage of temporary rises during adjustment phases and aim for the timing of a recovery.
trigger
A break above 1.2760 could boost buying momentum in the short term
A break below 1.2680 is likely to accelerate selling pressure
Economic indicators from the US and UK will be the deciding factor
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks above 1.2800 and settles there, the assumption of a sell-off will collapse.
Conversely, if the price breaks below 1.2650, the buying scenario will be negated.
Risk Event
US economic indicators (ISM and employment-related data)
Changes in interest rate outlook due to comments from Fed officials
Changes in pound supply and demand due to UK economic indicators and statements by important figures
Position Management
Lot size should be kept smaller than usual and decentralized entry should be the basis
The target for taking profits is around 1.2690 to 1.2700, with the stop loss set above 1.2800.
Emphasize short-term turnover and avoid building large positions
Checklist
Will the support around 1.2680 hold?
Will the rally near 1.2760 be contained?
Will US and UK economic data lead to increased volatility?
Market Summary
AUD/USD was heavily sold off the previous day, but did not break support and the firmness of the downside is being recognized.
On the daily chart, it appears to have bounced back from resistance, and views differ depending on the time frame.
Expected range
The downside is expected to be around 0.6670, and the upside is expected to be around 0.6730.
It is difficult to determine the direction, and the price tends to move mainly within a range.
tactics
The basic principle is to be aware of range rotation and flexibly use buying on dips and selling on rallies.
Focus on short-term price fluctuations until a clear direction emerges
trigger
A clear break above 0.6730 is likely to increase buying interest.
If it breaks below 0.6670, selling pressure is likely to prevail.
European and US economic data releases may provide short-term direction
Nullification Conditions
If the price breaks below 0.6650, the dip buying strategy will be negated.
On the other hand, if the price breaks above 0.6750 and settles there, the premise of the pullback selling strategy will collapse.
Risk Event
US economic indicators (employment-related, ISM, etc.)
Impact of Chinese economic trends and commodity prices on the Australian dollar
Australian economic indicators and RBA-related statements
Position Management
Keep lot sizes small and aim for gradual entry
Take profits around 0.6720-0.6730, and set stop loss below 0.6650.
Avoid long-term positions and focus on short-term trading
Checklist
Can the support around 0.6670 hold?
Can it break through the resistance near 0.6730?
Will volatility increase in US and China-related indicators?
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
USDJPY slightly updated the previous day's high, but was unable to break out clearly and lost momentum, continuing to lack direction.
summary
Unable to break out of the uptrend following Chairman Powell's remarks, the market remained within a range.
There were times when buying prevailed in the European market, but caution was seen in chasing higher prices.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, small buying took the lead and the price rose to around 148.20.
In the European market, there was a test of the 148.30 level, but it was unable to break above it, and after that it mainly fluctuated between 147.90 and 148.10.
Background/materials
Trends in US long-term interest rates continued to support the dollar
On the other hand, there was a lack of new information, and active positioning was limited.
The technical level formed after Chairman Powell's remarks continues to restrain the market.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the 4-hour chart, around 148.30 is seen as resistance.
The downside was supported around 147.80, confirming the formation of a short-term range.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the price continues to move within the range of the upward trend, and the medium-term direction remains unclear.
The moving average line shows a flat trend, and the holding state continues.
Impressions
Although there were some temporary test highs, the market remained cautious in chasing higher prices.
Lacking a sense of direction, the market remains unstable and prone to up and down swings.
Trading Impressions
The market was favorable for short-term trading, with both buying on dips and selling on rallies working well.
Avoiding chasing high prices and trading with an eye on the upper and lower limits of the range was effective.
Checklist
Can the support around 147.80 be maintained?
Can it break through the resistance around 148.30?
Will the announcement of US interest rates and other indicators provide a sense of direction?
Looking back
EURUSD rebounded after testing the previous day's lows, but the upside was limited and there was a lack of direction.
summary
While the firmness of the lower end was a concern, there was little momentum to chase higher prices.
The overall market saw a wait-and-see mood take hold, with prices moving mainly within a range.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the price tested the lower end of the 1.0870 range before rebounding and returning to the 1.0890 range.
In the European market, small buying was dominant, but the upside remained heavy around 1.0910.
In the New York market, the price fluctuated around 1.0900, with limited directionality.
Background/materials
Trends in US long-term interest rates continue to be a factor in determining the strength of the dollar.
There was little new, strong news from Europe, and euro-buying activity was suppressed.
Markets focused on position adjustments ahead of US economic data later in the week.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the 4-hour chart, 1.0870 was recognized as support, which helped to support the downside.
On the upside, resistance was seen around 1.0910-1.0920, and the short-term range formation continued.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the price continues to trade between 1.0850 and 1.0950, making it difficult to determine the medium-term direction.
The moving averages are flat and no clear trend signals are evident.
Impressions
The strength of the downside was confirmed, but the upward breakthrough was lacking.
The market is waiting for new information, and a wait-and-see attitude is evident.
Trading Impressions
Both buying on dips and selling on rallies were likely to work, making it a favorable environment for short-term trading.
Rather than tilting in one direction, trading in small rotations while keeping the range in mind was effective.
Checklist
Can the support around 1.0870 hold?
Can it break through the resistance around 1.0910-1.0920?
Will the release of US economic indicators lead to a breakout from the range?
Looking back
GBPUSD rebounded after testing the previous day's lows, and then the sell-off was limited and the adjustment phase continued.
summary
There was some downward pressure, but the price rebounded early and began to rise.
There were no large price fluctuations, and overall the market remained in a correctional trend.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the price remained firm at around 1.2730.
In the European market, the pair rose gradually to around 1.2760, but momentum was lacking.
In the New York market, the rate remained at a moderate level, trading around 1.2750.
Background/materials
Trends in US long-term interest rates continued to determine the strength of the dollar
There was little new information from the UK, making it difficult for the pound to develop a direction on its own.
A wait-and-see attitude prevailed in the market ahead of the release of US data.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
1.2730 is seen as short-term support
Resistance was found near 1.2760, and price movements remained within a narrow range.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the range remains between 1.2700 and 1.2800.
The moving average is flat, making it difficult to determine a medium-term trend.
Impressions
Although a rebound was observed, it did not lead to a clear trend and remained quiet.
The price range was limited both up and down, and trading participants appeared cautious.
Trading Impressions
Buying on dips worked, but it was difficult to expect large profit margins.
Selling on pullbacks was difficult to execute, and there were few opportunities for aggressive trading.
Checklist
Will the support around 1.2730 hold?
Can it break through the resistance near 1.2760?
Will US economic data change the tide?
Looking back
AUD/USD recovered all of the previous day's losses as buying from Europe continued into New York.
summary
Australian dollar buying became dominant after the European market, absorbing the decline.
Although the direction is limited, the firmness of the downside was confirmed.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the price remained small, around 0.6680.
In the European market, buying intensified and the price rose to around 0.6710.
The momentum continued in the New York market, rising to around 0.6730.
Background/materials
Amid concerns about rising US long-term interest rates, buying prevailed in the Australian dollar
There was little new news from Australia, but risk appetite supported the Australian dollar
Ahead of the release of US data, the market was dominated by corrective buying.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
0.6680 acted as short-term support
The upside was focused around 0.6730, which was the upper limit of the short-term range.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the range of 0.6650 to 0.6750 continues.
The moving averages are flat, confirming a medium-term consolidation trend.
Impressions
The fact that the Australian dollar completely recovered from the previous day's decline indicates the firmness of the downside.
However, the upward momentum is limited, and the lack of direction continues.
Trading Impressions
While the dip buying strategy worked effectively, selling on rallies was less effective.
Short-term price fluctuations were the focus, and long-term position building was refrained from.
Checklist
Can the support around 0.6680 hold?
Can it break through the resistance near 0.6730?
Will US economic indicators strengthen the direction of the Australian dollar?
FX Journal