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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★★ | April-June Quarter Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP, revised) [Compared to the previous quarter] |
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| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★★ | April-June Quarter Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP, revised) [Annualized] |
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Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★ | July Balance of Payments and Trade Balance |
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| 🇨🇳 China | ★ | August Trade Balance (US Dollars) |
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Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇨🇳 China | ★ | August Trade Balance (Renminbi) |
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Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | July Industrial Production [Month-on-Month] |
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Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | July Industrial Production [Year-on-Year Comparison] |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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* We have selected indicators with high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
news
Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba announces resignation
Today's Outlook
This week, USD/JPY started the week with a large gap opening and the yen weakening amid market instability following Prime Minister Ishiba's announcement of his resignation. While price movements are focused on filling the gap, the pair remains embedded in the downward trend that followed Chairman Powell's comments, limiting direction. Amid a mix of political risk and monetary policy speculation, the pair will likely continue to trade within a range in the short term, but the market is sensitive to comments by key figures and related news.
The EURUSD saw dollar selling intensify following the previous day's US employment data, temporarily breaking out of the uptrend formed after Chairman Powell's remarks. However, subsequent sell-offs prevailed, leaving the breakout mostly as a shadow. It is easy to sense the weight of the upside. The market continues to seek direction based on US economic indicators and statements by key figures.
The GBP/USD pair saw dollar selling following the previous day's US employment data, briefly returning to the uptrend level following Chairman Powell's comments. However, selling intensified afterwards, leaving a long upper shadow on the daily chart. While the upside is likely to be heavy, the overall trend is also seen as moving along a descending channel, limiting the sense of direction.
The AUD/USD pair rose temporarily as dollar selling prevailed following the previous day's US employment data, but was subsequently pushed down by selling, leaving a long upper shadow on the daily chart. While the upside is heavy, the four-hour chart shows that the pair is still moving within an ascending channel. This makes it easier for buyers to buy on dips in the short term, and the market continues to look for direction based on US economic indicators and Australian factors.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
Selling dominated the European market from the beginning, and the decline temporarily stopped at a psychological turning point just before the gap was filled. The subsequent recovery was limited, and the market continued to show a lack of direction until the first half of New York time. However, dollar selling intensified again towards the end of the day, and trading ended with the gap being filled. Overall, it was a day in which the decline from Europe was the driving force, and the battle for the turning point was consolidated towards the second half of New York time.
Buying took the lead in the European market from the beginning, and this trend continued into New York time. Additional buying was observed especially in New York, and strong price movements were noted throughout. On the daily chart, the body of the stock also clearly broke upward, breaking through levels that had been in focus until then. As a result, this day confirmed that the upward trend that had continued since Chairman Powell's remarks on the 22nd appeared to have been technically consolidated.
Buying dominated the European market from the beginning, and this trend continued into New York time. The background to this was the past decline caused by the long-term interest rate shock, and attention was focused on the extent of recovery from that level. The daily chart clearly showed a recovery in the real body, indicating the strength of the correction to the downtrend. Overall, it was a day in which upward momentum was confirmed.
Buying dominated the Tokyo market, and this trend continued into the European market. The upward momentum slowed somewhat during New York trading hours, but there were no major disruptions and the market maintained a steady trend. On the daily chart, the body broke above resistance, clearly breaking through a level that had been a focus of attention until then. As a result, technically, a double bottom was completed, and the day's developments confirmed the upward trend on both short-term and long-term timescales.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| Price Fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
Following Prime Minister Ishiba's announcement of his resignation, the yen started to weaken, but there are moves to fill the gap
Still moving in the downward trend following Chairman Powell's remarks
Political risks and speculation about monetary policy intersect, limiting direction
Expected range
Expected range centered around 147.50 to 149.50
Beware of attempts to fill gaps and selling pressure at high prices
tactics
The basic strategy is to keep in mind the range rotation.
Consider buying on dips near the lower limit and sell on rallies near the upper limit
trigger
If there is a breakout above around 148.80, it will confirm short-term buying interest.
Be wary of a downward test if the price breaks 147.50
The timing of VIP remarks and US economic indicators during Tokyo time is key
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks above 149.80 and settles there
If there is significant selling pressure accompanied by a break of 147.00
Risk Event
Japanese political news
US economic indicators (consumer prices and employment-related statistics)
Statements by major central bank officials
Position Management
Maintain normal sized positions to limit risk
Profit target is adjusted gradually at around 30 to 50 pips
Stop loss is based on when the price clearly falls outside the expected range
Checklist
Check for sudden news flow due to political risk
Understand trends in US interest rates and the dollar index
Pay close attention to whether the gap is filled and the subsequent price movements
Market Summary
The dollar temporarily breaks the upward trend due to selling following the US employment data
After that, it was pushed down by selling on the rebound and the part that broke out remained as a shadow.
The market is searching for a direction as it is aware of the weight of the upper limit.
Expected range
Expect price movements to center around 1.0800 to 1.0950
The balance between upward pressure and downward buybacks is likely to continue
tactics
The basic strategy is to keep range rotation in mind.
Flexible combination of short-term selling on rallies and buying on dips
trigger
Breaking above 1.0950 confirms strengthening of short-term buybacks
If the price breaks below 1.0800, caution is needed to test the downward trend
Triggered by European economic indicators and US market trends
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks above 1.1000 and settles there
If the price falls below 1.0750 and strong selling pressure occurs
Risk Event
Major economic indicators such as US CPI and retail sales
Statements by European Central Bank officials
Sudden fluctuations in US long-term interest rates
Position Management
Regular size entry limits risk
Profit taking is adjusted gradually with a target of 20 to 40 pips
Stop loss is based on a position outside the expected range
Checklist
Check the release schedule for major US indexes
Understand price movements and liquidity changes during European trading hours
Keep an eye on whether the price movements will continue to rise or fall
Market Summary
The upward trend temporarily recovered due to dollar selling following the US employment data.
After that, selling intensified and a long upper shadow formed on the daily chart.
Price movements along the descending channel are being considered, and direction is limited
Expected range
Expected to move around 1.2550 to 1.2720
Keep an eye on the balance between heavy upper limits and buybacks at lower limits
tactics
The basic response is based on range rotation
Consider selling on rebounds near the upper limit and buying on dips near the lower limit
trigger
Beware of short-term buybacks if there is a clear break above 1.2720
Be wary of a downward trend if the price breaks below 1.2550
Triggered by trading trends during London hours and US economic indicators
Nullification Conditions
If the price settles above 1.2750, the view that upside is being suppressed will be lost.
If strong selling pressure emerges below 1.2500
Risk Event
Major US economic indicators (CPI and retail sales)
UK economic data and comments from Bank of England officials
Sudden fluctuations in US interest rates and stock markets
Position Management
Modest position sizes limit risk
Profit target is adjusted in stages to about 30 to 50 pips
Stop loss is based on a level that is clearly outside the expected range
Checklist
Check London time price movements and trading volume
Understand US interest rate trends and the dollar index
Watch closely to see if the descending channel will hold
Market Summary
Temporarily rising due to dollar selling following US employment data
After that, it was pushed down by selling and formed a long upper shadow on the daily chart.
On the 4-hour chart, the price continues to move within the ascending channel.
Expected range
Expected to move mainly around 0.6500 to 0.6630
Pay close attention to the balance between heavy upper limits and buying on dips at lower limits
tactics
The basic approach is to buy on dips
Focus on reaction near the lower limit of the channel and enter in small increments
trigger
A move above 0.6630 would confirm short-term buying interest
If the price breaks below 0.6500, caution is needed to test the downward trend
Triggered by Australian-related indexes during Tokyo time and US data during New York time
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks above 0.6660 and settles there
If the price falls below 0.6470 and strong selling pressure occurs
Risk Event
Australian economic indicators (employment and consumption data)
US major economic indicators and interest rate trends
Fluctuations in resource prices and China-related news
Position Management
Keep entries small and spread out
Profit target is adjusted in stages from 20 to 40 pips
Stop loss is set at a level outside the expected range.
Checklist
Australian economic data releases and market reactions
Understanding the correlation between resource price trends and the Australian dollar
Keep an eye on whether the ascending channel will hold
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
The market was dominated by declines during European trading hours, but ended the day with a gap filled in the second half of the New York trading day.
summary
During Tokyo hours, the market continued to move slightly, but selling of the dollar became dominant during European hours.
The rebound was limited in the first half of New York time, but selling intensified again towards the second half, filling the gap.
The battle over psychological turning points became the focus of price movements.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo time, the index continued to move without any sense of direction around 147.80.
Selling occurred suddenly in the European market, and at one point the price fell to around 147.00.
Selling resumed in the latter half of the New York session, reaching a level that filled the gap at the beginning of the week.
Background/materials
US interest rate trends over the weekend were seen as a factor, and risk aversion intensified in the early stages.
During European trading hours, weak stock markets also contributed to the dollar's tendency to sell.
In the latter half of the New York session, downward pressure intensified as investors adjusted their positions.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the 4-hour chart, the price fell below 147.50, increasing downward pressure.
Even after the gap was filled towards the end of the day, the market continued to fight for lower prices.
The short-term EMA is trending downward, confirming the slow recovery.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the body broke below the key point, reaffirming the range that has existed since late August.
The 200-day moving average is flat, making it difficult to judge the medium-term trend.
The market continues to adjust from the high range, and there is awareness of the heavy upper limit.
Impressions
Price movements from Europe to late New York reflected market caution surrounding a psychological turning point.
Although the achievement of filling the gap marks a short-term milestone, the sense of direction remains limited.
The market remained in a state of awaiting further news, with investors remaining cautious.
Trading Impressions
While the sharp drop during European trading hours provided a good opportunity for short-term selling, the rebound in the first half of the New York session was difficult.
It was important to trade with an awareness of the attacks and defenses at key points, and responding around 147.00 was particularly key.
Overall, it was a day that required flexible responses to prepare for sudden fluctuations.
Checklist
Check reactions at psychological milestones.
Keep an eye on the direction of the short-term EMA and the daily body.
Determine the correlation with US interest rates and the stock market.
Looking back
Buying from Europe continued, and buying also increased in New York, causing the daily level to be broken through.
summary
During Tokyo hours, the market remained largely unchanged, but buying became dominant during European hours.
The trend did not change even during New York hours, and additional buying led to a continued strong performance.
On the daily chart, the body broke out above the market, confirming the consolidation of the upward trend.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the market remained stagnant around 1.1050.
Buying intensified in the European market, with the dollar breaking through 1.1100 at times.
Buying continued into New York time, and prices remained in the high range until the end of the day.
Background/materials
There was relatively more awareness of the stability of US interest rates and the preference for European currencies.
Stability in the stock market also supported risk appetite, leading to selling pressure on the dollar.
This once again confirmed the trend that has continued since Chairman Powell's remarks on the 22nd.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the 4-hour chart, the stock broke above the most recent high, indicating a buying advantage.
The short-term EMA was trending upwards, highlighting the bounce at the dip.
The stock price remained at a high level even during New York time, confirming the strength of the short-term trend.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the upward trend continued from the 22nd, and the movement to break through resistance was consolidated.
The 200-day moving average continues to trend upward, providing medium-term support.
Market participants took note of the fact that the price had broken out of the upper limit of its long-term range.
Impressions
The continued buying from Europe to New York reflected a risk-taking environment.
The clear breakout on the daily chart was significant in confirming a technical milestone.
On the other hand, there was limited material support, and the market as a whole continued to maintain a cautious stance.
Trading Impressions
Buying on dips from Europe was relatively easy.
Even during New York hours, selling pressure at higher prices was weak, so maintaining buying positions was effective.
However, during periods of rapid growth, it is important to make profit-taking decisions, and a more prudent response is required rather than riding the momentum.
Checklist
Continue to confirm that the price breaks above the daily level
Keep an eye on the direction of the short-term EMA and the pullback level
Check the correlation with US interest rates and stock market trends
Looking back
Buying from Europe continued, and buying prevailed in New York as well, resulting in a recovery in value on the daily chart.
summary
During Tokyo time, there was a lack of direction and a strong wait-and-see mood.
As European trading began, buying took the lead, and this trend continued in New York.
On the daily chart, the actual stock price recovered the losses, and upward momentum became a focus of attention.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo time, the exchange rate continued to fluctuate slightly around 1.2700.
Buying intensified in the European market, with signs of a move above 1.2750.
Buying continued during New York hours, and the price remained in the high range of around 1.2800 at the end of the day.
Background/materials
The market continued to be aware of the downward trend following the long-term interest rate shock.
The recovery from that backlash attracted attention and supported the buying trend.
The resilience of the stock market also boosted investor sentiment.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the 4-hour chart, a clear breakout of the downtrend line was observed.
The short-term EMA has turned upward, confirming a bounce off the dip.
The stock price remained high even during New York time, confirming the short-term upward trend.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the actual market has recovered the decline that occurred after the long-term interest rate shock.
It remained above its 200-day moving average, indicating medium-term stability.
Market participants were aware of the rebound from long-term support levels.
Impressions
The buying flow from Europe to New York reflected the market's determination to overcome past declines.
The daily recovery stabilized investor sentiment and supported trading.
On the other hand, the underlying factors are limited, and the market remains cautious.
Trading Impressions
The buying on dips during European trading hours was relatively straightforward.
During New York time, prices continued to trade in the high range, making it difficult to decide whether to take profits or enter new entries.
While trading along the broader trend was effective, caution was needed against short-term sudden fluctuations.
Checklist
Continue to check for recovery on the daily chart
Keep an eye on the short-term EMA to maintain its upward trend
Confirm the correlation between long-term interest rate trends and the stock market
Looking back
Buying was dominant from Tokyo to Europe, and although momentum slowed in the latter half of the New York period, resistance was broken through on the daily chart.
summary
Buying took the lead from Tokyo time onwards, and the trend continued in Europe.
The upward momentum slowed down once New York time began, but there was no sign of a collapse.
The stock broke above resistance on the daily chart, and technical consolidation progressed.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, buying occurred around 0.6700, leading to a gradual upward trend.
Buying intensified further in the European market, breaking above 0.6750.
During New York time, the rise subsided and the price remained in the high range of around 0.6760.
Background/materials
Sense of stability related to the Chinese economy supported preference for the Australian dollar.
The calming of US interest rates also triggered dollar selling.
Overall, risk appetite led to buying of the Australian dollar.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the 4-hour chart, a breakout was confirmed after forming a double bottom.
The short-term EMA turned upward, and rebounds at dips became dominant.
The market remained in the high range in the second half of the New York session, demonstrating the strength of the short-term trend.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the resistance was broken and the price clearly surpassed a level that had long been in the spotlight.
The completion of the double bottom suggests a medium-term trend reversal.
Holding above the 200-day moving average is providing medium-term support.
Impressions
Price movements from Tokyo to New York confirmed the sustainability of Australian dollar buying.
The breakout above the daily price gave investors a sense of relief.
However, the material side is limited, suggesting that the situation continues to be highly dependent on external factors.
Trading Impressions
It was an easy time to buy on dips from Tokyo to Europe.
During New York time, it was difficult to decide whether to take profits or enter new trades at high prices.
It was important to manage positions after confirming that milestones had been reached.
Checklist
Confirmation of continued breakthrough of daily resistance
Keep an eye on the short-term EMA and the movement after the double bottom formation
Check US interest rates and Chinese economic indicators as external factors
FX Journal