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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | ★ | August Consumer Price Index (CPI) [Year-on-year comparison] |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇨🇳 China | ★ | August Producer Price Index (PPI) [Year-on-Year Comparison] |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | August Wholesale Price Index (PPI) [MoM] |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | August Wholesale Price Index (PPI) [Year-on-year comparison] |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | August Wholesale Price Index (PPI Core Index, excluding food and energy) [MoM] |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
|
|||||
| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | August Wholesale Price Index (PPI Core Index, excluding food and energy) [Year-on-year comparison] |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
|
* We have selected indicators with high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
The dollar/yen exchange rate briefly tested its lows yesterday, but saw buying at the lower end, resulting in a rebound and a close. The momentum of dollar selling was limited as investors focused on US interest rate trends and the stabilization of stock prices. While it is likely that the exchange rate will continue to test the downward trend today, it is unclear whether it will fall significantly unless there is clear news. In the short term, market participants will likely continue to use US economic indicators and statements by key figures as clues to decide whether to buy or sell.
The previous day, EURUSD was weighed down by weak European economic indicators. Combined with the trend in US interest rates, dollar buying prevailed, temporarily weakening the euro. Today, attention will likely continue to turn to European economic indicators and US economic announcements to see whether buying will occur.
The previous day, GBP/USD was weighed down by concerns about the UK economy and uncertainty about the interest rate outlook. The relative advantage of US interest rates led to dollar buying, which kept the upside in check. However, there was some support at the lower end, and some saw this as a good opportunity to buy on dips. Today, we will be keeping an eye on UK economic indicators and US events to see if buying will intensify.
The AUD/USD pair saw its upper limit weighed down yesterday. The US dollar maintained its strength on interest rate expectations, limiting the Australian dollar's recovery. However, there is still some buying interest at the lower end, and some see this as a good opportunity to buy on dips. Today, we will be keeping an eye on UK economic indicators and US events to see if buying momentum will intensify.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
Today, the overall mood was one of wait-and-see. Immediately after the release of the index, dollar selling prevailed, temporarily pushing the dollar down, but buying began at the lower end as stock prices and interest rates stabilized. After that, a lack of material meant there was little sense of direction, and price movement was limited. Until the end of the day, the dollar moved within a narrow range centered around the low 147 yen range. Short-term technical data also showed signs of overheating, and the market conditions were difficult to follow, both up and down.
Today, caution continued over European and US economic indicators and comments from key figures, and with US interest rates also settling, there was limited material. Early on, the price tried to move downwards several times, but buying back at the lower end held back the decline. Meanwhile, the upper end was heavy just before the previous day's high, and aggressive buying did not spread. In the end, the price only fluctuated slightly around 1.17, giving the impression of consolidating at the bottom. There was little sense of direction, and prices remained quiet until the end of the day.
From London to early New York trading, the pound attempted to move downwards several times but was unable to break through, and the firmness of the bottom became a focus of attention. Following the release of US economic indicators, dollar selling initially became dominant and the pound entered a downward phase, but it lost momentum in the latter half of New York, giving back most of its gains and becoming almost insubstantial on the daily chart.
Buying was ahead during Tokyo hours, while growth in Europe initially stagnated. However, after the release of indicators in New York, dollar selling became dominant and the market retested the upside. As a result, the market slightly surpassed the previous day's high and maintained a high range in the closing stages.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| Price Fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
The previous day, USDJPY briefly tested its low price, but there was buying back at the lower end and it rebounded to close.
As investors focused on trends in US interest rates and the stability of stock prices, dollar selling was limited, resulting in a lack of direction.
There is a possibility that the market will try to move downwards today, but the lack of material means that it is difficult to see any major movements.
Expected range
The area around 147.00 is likely to be the lower limit.
The upper limit is expected to be around 147.80.
As we wait for new information, it is likely that the price will remain within a range.
tactics
The basic policy is short-term trading based on range rotation.
When the price tests the lower end, consider buying on dips, and when the price approaches the upper end, consider selling on rallies.
Unless there is a clear breakthrough, a small-scale tactic seems to be effective.
trigger
If it clearly breaks above 147.80, it will be an opportunity to look for upward movement in the short term.
If it breaks below 147.00, the downward trend may intensify.
Pay attention to the time of US economic indicators and important statements to prepare for sudden fluctuations.
Nullification Conditions
If the price remains below 147.00 and settles there, the dip-buying scenario is likely to be negated.
On the other hand, if the price settles above 147.80, the sell-on-rebound strategy will be less effective.
If the price moves significantly outside the range, it will be necessary to restructure the strategy.
Risk Event
Revised figures for US inflation-related indicators and employment statistics.
Comments from Federal Reserve officials may influence interest rate forecasts.
Sudden fluctuations in stock and commodity markets can also affect exchange rates.
Position Management
The lot size is set lower than usual.
Aim for a profit of around 20 to 30 pips and don't be greedy.
Stop losses are mechanically executed at a level that is clearly outside the expected range.
Checklist
Are you clearly aware of the range levels of 147.00 and 147.80?
Do you know the schedule of index releases and important person remarks?
Have you adjusted your position size and risk tolerance in advance?
Market Summary
The previous day's EURUSD was weighed down by weakness in European indicators.
Dollar buying prevailed against the backdrop of US interest rate trends, causing the euro to temporarily weaken.
Today, the market continues to look for direction based on European economic indicators and US economic announcements.
Expected range
The downside is likely to be around 1.1680
The upper limit is expected to be around 1.1750.
Unless there is any major news, the price is likely to remain within this range.
tactics
The basic strategy is a short-term trading strategy that focuses on range rotation.
Consider buying on dips in the lower price range and consider selling on rallies in the upper price range.
Until a sense of direction emerges, we will focus on small-scale initiatives without being greedy.
trigger
A clear break above 1.1750 is likely to increase buying interest.
A break below 1.1680 could increase selling pressure
Keep an eye on the release times of European economic indicators and US events
Nullification Conditions
If the price breaks below 1.1680 and settles there, the dip-buying scenario is likely to be negated.
On the other hand, if the price settles above 1.1750, selling on a rebound will be less effective.
If the price continues to move outside the range, you will need to restructure your tactics.
Risk Event
Reports on ECB-related statements and policies
Revised US inflation and employment indicators
Sudden fluctuations in stock and commodity markets may have an impact on foreign exchange.
Position Management
Set small lots to limit risk
Take profits early, aiming for 20-30 pips
Stop losses are mechanically performed at levels outside the expected range.
Checklist
Are we seeing the range levels of 1.1680 and 1.1750?
Are you aware of upcoming European and US economic indicators?
Have you adjusted your position size and risk tolerance in advance?
Market Summary
The previous day, GBP/USD was weighed down by concerns about the UK economy and uncertainty about the interest rate outlook.
The relative advantage of US interest rates led to dollar buying, limiting the upside.
On the other hand, there was some support at the lower end, and some saw it as a good opportunity to buy on dips.
Expected range
The downside is likely to be around 1.3500.
The upper limit is expected to be around 1.3585.
Unless there is any major news, it is expected that the market will remain within this range.
tactics
The basic stance is a short-term one, with buying on dips as the premise.
Buy carefully at the lower end of the price range and prioritize taking profits at the higher end.
Selling on a pullback should be limited to situations where a failure to break out above the market has been confirmed.
trigger
A clear break above 1.3585 would be a catalyst for stronger buying momentum
If the price breaks below 1.3500, selling pressure will increase and a downward movement will be more likely to be noticed.
UK economic data and US event times will be short-term variables
Nullification Conditions
If the price falls below 1.3500 and remains there, the dip buying strategy will likely be negated.
On the other hand, if it stabilizes above 1.3585, the strategy of selling on rallies will be less effective.
If there is a sustained movement outside the range, it is time to rethink your strategy.
Risk Event
UK inflation and employment figures announced
Market focus on US interest rate data and key figures
Fluctuations in stock markets and commodity prices may have an impact on foreign exchange.
Position Management
Set a conservative lot size to limit risk
Take profits flexibly, aiming for 20-30 pips
Stop losses are mechanically performed at levels outside the expected range.
Checklist
Are we seeing the range levels of 1.3500 and 1.3585?
Do you keep up with key economic indicators and upcoming events in the UK and US?
Do you have pre-defined position sizes and stop-loss rules?
Market Summary
The previous day's AUD/USD showed signs of weakness due to the dollar's firmness against the backdrop of US interest rate expectations.
The Australian dollar's recovery was limited and growth temporarily stagnated.
On the other hand, there is a certain degree of buying interest at the lower end, and some still see this as a good opportunity to buy on dips.
Expected range
The downside is likely to be around 0.6550
The upside is expected to move up to around 0.6620.
It is likely that the price will remain within a range
tactics
Take a short-term stance based on buying on dips
Buy carefully at the lower end of the price range and prioritize taking profits at the higher end.
Selling on a pullback should be limited to situations where a failure to break out above the market has been confirmed.
trigger
A clear break above 0.6620 could boost buying interest
If the price breaks below 0.6550, beware of a situation where selling pressure will prevail
Pay attention to the time when US economic indicators are released and when important people make statements
Nullification Conditions
If the price breaks below 0.6550 and settles there, the dip-buying scenario is likely to be negated.
On the other hand, if it stabilizes above 0.6620, the strategy of selling on rallies will be less effective.
If the movement continues to deviate significantly from the expected range, a review of tactics is necessary.
Risk Event
US inflation and employment data release
Australian economic indicators and comments from RBA officials
Fluctuations in stock and resource prices may affect exchange rates
Position Management
Set a conservative lot size to limit risk
Take profits in stages, aiming for 20-30 pips
Stop losses are mechanically performed at levels outside the expected range.
Checklist
Do you understand the range levels of 0.6550 and 0.6620?
Are you checking the major economic indicators and upcoming events in the US and Australia?
Do you have pre-defined position sizes and stop-loss rules?
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
While waiting for new information, the price fell and then started buying back, resulting in a small fluctuation around the lower 147 yen range.
summary
There is little sense of direction, and the market is in a range during the day.
The lower limit is around 147.00, while the upper limit is around 147.50 to 147.70.
Waiting for an event, not rushing to rotate, price range is shallow
Today's price movements
Immediately after the index, the dollar was sold and temporarily pushed down, but buying at the lower end led to a quick recovery.
Traffic continues between Europe and New York, converging around 147.10 to 147.60.
No break was seen in the final stages and trading volume thinned towards the close.
Background/materials
Interest rate fluctuations limited due to continued caution over US inflation-related results and statements by key figures
The stabilization of stock prices has curbed risk-averse buying of the yen, making it difficult for dollar selling to spread.
With new information scarce ahead of events later in the week, a wait-and-see attitude prevails
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The immediate support is around 147.00, and if the lower shadow increases, buying back is likely.
There is a strong selling trend back to around 147.50-147.70, and volume is the key to breaking out above that level
The oscillator's overheating has subsided, and the battle around VWAP continues.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the 4-hour chart, the range of 146.30-148.70 continues with a neutral bias.
Moving averages are converging and external factors are needed for a trend to occur.
We will be watching closely to see if the price can resolve its decline and avoid hitting a new low.
Impressions
Position adjustments before events are the main focus, so be careful of sudden headline fluctuations
The price range is narrow, but during periods of thin trading, wicks tend to appear, making limit order management important.
Prioritize level and risk management over directional bets
Trading Impressions
When rotating within a range, keep your open positions light and take profits in small increments of 10 to 25 pips.
Stop losses are mechanically executed when support or resistance is broken
Targeting a break is conditional on confirmation of a confirmed bar and accompanying volume.
Checklist
Have you grasped the 147.00 and 147.50-147.70 range?
Have you checked the next business day's indicators and the times when important people will be speaking?
Did you pre-fix your position size and stop loss amount?
Looking back
Although it tried to move downwards several times, the lower price was held back and it remained in a small movement around 1.17.
summary
Limited material and lack of direction
The continuity of selling is weak, and the recovery is limited, maintaining the range.
Waiting for the next event and lack of active positions
Today's price movements
The European market started weakly in the early morning, with some attempts to push downwards.
There was buying back at the lower end, and the price did not rise to its full potential and moved into a swing.
Even towards the close, the price converged to around 1.17, limiting the price range.
Background/materials
Caution ahead of European and US economic indicators and statements by key figures
US interest rates are fluctuating little, making it difficult for the dollar to determine its direction.
Calm risk assets curb currency volatility
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The balance is more neutral as the bottom is being cut and the top is being suppressed.
Selling tends to occur just before the previous day's high, and buying is considered near the most recent low.
Around the middle of the range, the wait-and-see trend increases and the rotation slows down.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The price continues to move within a range of consolidation, making it difficult to see a clear trend.
As we await a turning point, there is room for the range to expand depending on the information.
To avoid being deceived in the event of sudden changes, it is important to check the closing price.
Impressions
A market environment where short-term short covering and bargain hunting tend to alternate
The order book is thin despite waiting for information, so you need to be prepared for sudden fluctuations.
Trading Impressions
Countertrend trading within a range is executed mechanically with a small price range.
Set a shallow profit take and a strict stop loss at the pre-set level
If you are aiming for a breakout, don't rush to follow suit until you confirm that the price has consolidated.
Checklist
Have you grasped the key indicators and scheduled comments for the next business day?
Did you note the previous day's high and recent low levels?
Did you pre-set your position size and stop loss?
Looking back
From London to early New York, the pair continued to try to move downwards, but was unable to break out and fluctuated between the mid-1.35s.
summary
Immediately after the US data, dollar selling prevailed and the pound was temporarily pushed down, but buying prevailed at the lower end.
In the latter half of the New York period, momentum slowed down, cutting back on the gains and resulting in a small daily figure.
Overall, a tight range was maintained with little sense of direction awaiting further information.
Today's price movements
During London trading, the pair tested the 1.3520 level, but rebounded to around 1.3560.
The pair tried to recover in the early New York session, but the upside was limited and it was difficult to break above the 1.3560 level.
The market stalled in the final stages and converged to the 1.3530 range, limiting the intraday price range.
Background/materials
Fluctuations in interest rate expectations following US inflation-related results have constrained the direction of the dollar
On the UK side, extreme risk aversion has receded, despite the fact that interest rate prospects remain uncertain.
Fluctuations in stocks and bonds were small, and currency volatility was also suppressed.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
Support is around 1.3510-1.3500, and if the lower shadow increases, buying becomes more likely.
Resistance is around 1.3580-1.3585, and sell-offs are likely to occur.
The overheating of short-term oscillators subsided, and the focus shifted to the battle around VWAP.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The 4-hour chart is consolidating between 1.3500 and 1.3650, with a near-neutral bias.
The moving average is converging, and external factors are needed to resume the trend.
Don't rush to judge a breakout until the closing price breaks out of the band
Impressions
Although the downward pressure is slowing, the upside is not light and the level battle is likely to continue in the short term.
During times when the order book is thin, shadows are more likely to appear, so it is necessary to take care of limit order management and execution slippage.
Trading Impressions
Based on range rotation, take profits flexibly at around 15 to 25 pips
Stop losses will be mechanically executed when the price reaches a certain milestone, such as breaking below 1.3500 or exceeding 1.3585.
Break targets will follow later, subject to confirmation and volume.
Checklist
Have you grasped the key indicators and times of important people's speeches for the next business day?
The latest milestone was the band of 1.3500 and 1.3585.
Did you fix your position size and stop loss range in advance and operate without deviation?
Looking back
Buying led in Tokyo, but growth in Europe was sluggish, and the stock resurfaced after the New York index, slightly surpassing the previous day's high and maintaining a high range.
summary
While the direction is limited due to the pending event, the downside appears relatively firm.
US interest rates are fluctuating little, making it easy to sense that the dollar will weaken.
Stabilizing resource prices and stock prices help support the Australian dollar
Today's price movements
Tokyo is gradually rising to around 0.6600
The upside was suppressed in Europe, and the price stalled out and was pushed back to the 0.6590 level.
After the NY indicators, the price tested around 0.6620, breaking the previous day's high and closing in the high range.
Background/materials
US inflation-related results have reaffirmed expectations of a rate cut, leading to dollar selling
RBA's cautious stance and China-related stability support the Australian dollar
With events coming up later in the week, there is little new information and the price range is tight.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
Support is at 0.6580 and 0.6550, which is a zone where the trend of pullbacks is likely to strengthen.
Resistance is at 0.6620 and 0.6640, which are areas where sell-offs are likely to occur.
The oscillator is no longer overheating, and the battle is centered around the VWAP.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The price continues to consolidate between 0.6520 and 0.6680, with a neutral bias
The moving averages are converging and volume or external factors are needed to break out.
Prioritize confirmation of breakout from the closing price band and avoid false signals
Impressions
A day when trading based on levels rather than trends is more likely to work
Keep an eye on the order book and changes in spreads to prepare for thin periods of time.
Trading Impressions
Based on range rotation, take profits flexibly at 15 to 25 pips
Stop losses will be mechanically executed at milestones such as breaking below 0.6550 or breaking through 0.6640.
Break following will be delayed depending on the confirmed length and tick thickness.
Checklist
Have you checked the US indexes and the times of important speeches for the next business day?
The 0.6580 and 0.6620 bands were the latest milestones
Have you fixed your position size and loss allowance in advance?
FX Journal