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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★★ | European Central Bank (ECB) policy interest rate |
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Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | August Consumer Price Index (CPI) [MoM] |
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Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | August Consumer Price Index (CPI Core Index) [MoM] |
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Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | August Consumer Price Index (CPI Core Index) [Year-on-Year Comparison] |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Initial unemployment claims last week |
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Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Number of people continuing to receive unemployment insurance from the previous week |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | August Consumer Price Index (CPI) [Year-on-year comparison] |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | August Monthly Fiscal Balance |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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* We have selected indicators with high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Important remarks and market closures
| kinds | time | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statements by VIPs | 🇪🇺 Europe | European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde holds regular press conference |
Today's Outlook
With the release of US inflation data coming up, there is a growing view that the direction of the dollar will depend on the strength of interest rate cut expectations. With important data coming up today, we cannot expect any aggressive price movements until then.
While investor confidence in Europe is showing signs of declining, the ECB is maintaining its stance of keeping interest rates unchanged for the time being, and President Lagarde's comments are attracting attention regarding the direction of monetary policy. In the United States, interest rate cuts are expected ahead of inflation indicators, and dollar movements are affecting the euro. Aggressive trading will be avoided today ahead of policy events, and a wait-and-see attitude is likely to continue.
The GBP/USD pair showed some firmness yesterday despite testing the lower end. With the release of the US PPI and CPI figures coming up today, expectations of interest rate cuts are likely to have an impact on the direction of the dollar. The market is likely to remain on the sidelines today ahead of the release of key indicators, and it is expected that the direction will be difficult to determine.
The Australian dollar rose to around 0.66 on the previous day, temporarily hitting a new high, but was pushed back by daily resistance. With important US indicators due today, the market is likely to remain stagnant and remain watchful.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
In the US, an increase in unemployment claims was confirmed, raising concerns about the weakness of the labor market, while inflation indicators remained stable, and expectations of a rate cut remained in the market. USDJPY saw buying during European trading hours, and there were times when it tested the Pivot R2, but dollar selling prevailed following the release of US indicators during New York trading hours, and it closed slightly below the previous day's low.
The ECB left its policy rate unchanged, and President Lagarde emphasized that her decision would depend on the data, indicating a cautious stance on the timing of further rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US PPI fell short of expectations, leading to speculation of a rate cut and limiting the dollar's upside. Until the European market, the market remained on hold with only small price movements, but dollar selling intensified following the release of the data during New York time, and the EURUSD closed slightly above the previous day's high.
The US PPI fell short of expectations, and expectations of a rate cut remained, weighing on the dollar's upside. GBP/USD fell below the previous day's low during European trading hours, but after the release of the index during New York trading hours, dollar selling prevailed, and the pair reached a new high from the previous day. As a result, both the previous day's low and high were updated, making for a day of significant fluctuations.
In the US, PPI fell short of expectations, limiting the dollar's upside, creating an environment favorable for buying in AUD/USD. Until European trading hours, the price remained relatively stable, but after the release of the index in New York, dollar selling prevailed, and AUD/USD significantly surpassed the previous day's high. The daily chart also saw a substantial rise, closing the day after breaking through daily resistance.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| Price Fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
With the release of US inflation indicators looming, attention will be focused on the strength of expectations for a rate cut.
The dollar/yen exchange rate has been moving without any sense of direction, due in part to expectations of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan and uncertainty about Japan's political situation.
The previous day saw trading mainly in a range of the low to mid 147 yen range, with no clear breakout.
Expected range
Around 146.80–147.80.
The upper limit will be 147.75–148.00, while the lower limit will be the support zone of 146.30–146.50.
Keep in mind that the price will move within a range, and prepare for changes in key indicators.
tactics
Basically, this is a situation where range rotation is expected.
If the price tests the lower end, consider buying on dips in the high 146 yen range.
When the price approaches the upper limit, it is necessary to mix in some selling on pullbacks and take profits in small increments.
trigger
A break above 147.80 could signal increased short-term buying momentum.
If it falls below 146.30, caution is needed against further weakness.
The release of major inflation indicators such as the US CPI and PPI are likely to be triggers.
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks above 148.00 and consolidates, the range strategy will be negated.
Conversely, if the price falls significantly below 146.00 and settles there, tactics will need to be adjusted.
Reset the scenario when unexpected policy statements or interventionist measures are made.
Risk Event
US CPI and PPI results.
Reports and statements by important figures regarding the Bank of Japan's policy outlook.
Political trends in Japan and the resulting changes in monetary policy stance.
Position Management
Assuming trading will occur within a range, position sizes will be smaller than usual.
Aim for profit taking of around 20 to 40 pips, and take it safely without being greedy.
Place your stop loss outside the expected range to avoid excessive unrealized losses.
Checklist
Have you checked the US CPI release time and forecast?
Do you know the key support and resistance levels?
Do you have your position size and stop loss line set in advance?
Market Summary
Declining investor confidence in Europe leaves concerns over economic outlook
ECB to keep interest rates unchanged, market focus on President Lagarde's comments
With inflation data due in the US, expectations of interest rate cuts will determine the direction of the euro
Expected range
Around 1.1590–1.1780
The upper limit will be 1.1775–1.1800, while the lower limit will be supported by 1.1590–1.1620.
While assuming a range-bound movement as the basic scenario, prepare for a breakout after the event
tactics
For the time being, range rotation will be the basic tactic
Consider buying on dips in the upper 1.1600s, and consider selling on rallies around 1.1770.
Focus on short-term trading and take profits in small increments to prepare for sudden fluctuations after an event
trigger
A break above 1.1780 could lead to increased buying
If it breaks below 1.1590, watch for a downward movement
US CPI and PPI results and comments from the ECB president are likely to be the main triggers
Nullification Conditions
A clear break and consolidation above 1.1800 will invalidate the range strategy
Conversely, if the price falls below 1.1550 and settles below that level, a review of tactics will be necessary.
Reset the scenario when unexpected statements by important figures or changes in monetary policy occur.
Risk Event
Press conference by President Lagarde after the ECB Governing Council meeting
US CPI and PPI Publications
European investor confidence and economic indicators release
Position Management
Anticipating small trades within a range, adjust position sizes conservatively
Aim for a profit of around 20 to 40 pips to ensure steady profit accumulation
Set stop loss outside the range to limit risk during sudden fluctuations
Checklist
Have you checked the US CPI release time and forecast?
Do you know your key support and resistance levels?
Do you have your position size and stop loss line set in advance?
Market Summary
Inflation remains high in the UK, leading to a growing view that the Bank of England will delay the start of interest rate cuts.
With PPI and CPI figures coming up in the US, expectations of interest rate cuts are likely to influence the direction of the dollar.
The pound-dollar pair tested the lower end of the range yesterday, but remained firm at the upper 1.34 range.
Expected range
Around 1.3430–1.3600
The upper limit will be 1.3600, while the lower limit will be supported by 1.3420-1.3450.
A situation where trading within a range is likely to continue
tactics
Basically, assume a range rotation and focus on trading by taking advantage of upper and lower levels
Consider buying on dips near 1.3450, and be mindful of selling on rallies between 1.3580 and 1.3600.
Take small profits in the short term and prepare for the direction after the event
trigger
A clear break above 1.3600 could lead to increased buying
If it breaks below 1.3420, downward pressure will be expected
The release of US PPI and CPI figures is expected to be the main trigger
Nullification Conditions
A breakout and consolidation above 1.3620 will invalidate the range strategy
If the price falls below 1.3400 and settles there, we will need to adjust our expectations.
If unexpected news emerges, such as a surprise statement from policymakers, we will reassess our tactics.
Risk Event
US PPI and CPI Results
UK inflation indicators and retail sales trends
Reports on statements by Bank of England officials and policy stances
Position Management
Keep position size modest and reduce risk until the event passes
Take profits at 20 to 40 pips, with priority given to accumulation
Set stop loss outside the expected range to avoid large reversals
Checklist
Have you checked the release times and market expectations for the US PPI and CPI?
Do you know your key support and resistance levels?
Do you have your position size and stop loss line set in advance?
Market Summary
Australia reports improved business activity, but consumer sentiment remains weak
In the US, with PPI and CPI figures coming up, expectations of a rate cut will have an impact on the dollar as a whole
The previous day, the Australian dollar briefly hit a new high of around 0.66, but then fell back at daily resistance.
Expected range
Around 0.6550–0.6640
The upper limit will be 0.6625–0.6640, while the lower limit will be supported by 0.6550–0.6570.
While maintaining a range, prepare for movements after the announcement of indicators
tactics
For the time being, the market will mainly rotate in a range
Consider buying on dips near 0.6560, and consider selling on rallies around 0.6630.
Emphasize small profit taking and be flexible in changing direction after the announcement of indicators
trigger
If the price clearly breaks above 0.6640, upward momentum will be observed.
A break below 0.6550 could increase downward pressure
US PPI and CPI expected to be key triggers
Nullification Conditions
If the price consolidates above 0.6660, the range strategy will be invalidated.
Conversely, if the price falls below 0.6530 and settles there, a tactical adjustment is necessary.
If there are any sudden statements by important figures or policy changes, the scenario will be revised.
Risk Event
US PPI and CPI results
Trends in Australian consumer inflation expectations
Fluctuations in China's economic indicators and resource prices
Position Management
Moderate position sizes and limit risk before the event
Aim for taking profits at around 15 to 30 pips, and prioritize short-term accumulation
Place stop loss outside the expected range to limit losses during sudden fluctuations
Checklist
Have you checked the release times and forecasts for the US PPI and CPI?
Are you aware of the schedule for Australian and China-related indicators?
Do you have your position size and stop loss settings decided in advance?
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
USDJPY slightly improved from the previous day's low due to dollar selling following US data.
summary
Rising US unemployment claims signal weakness in labor market
Inflation indicators remained stable, leaving the market expecting a rate cut
USDJPY tried to move higher during European trading hours, but lost momentum during New York trading hours and hit a new low.
Today's price movements
During European trading hours, buying occurred and the price rose to around 147.90.
Pivot R2 was attempted but did not lead to a move above 148.00.
During New York trading, US dollar selling intensified following US indexes, and the dollar fell to around 147.20.
Background/materials
Rising US unemployment claims led to dollar selling
US inflation data stabilizes, interest rate cut expectations remain
In Japan, expectations of policy changes were limited, and yen buying was influenced by the impact of US indicators.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The 148.00 level was strongly considered to be resistance.
The 147.20 area became short-term support and the decline temporarily stopped.
The RSI has broken below neutrality, indicating short-term selling pressure.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The price continues to move in the range of 147.00 to 148.50.
A bearish candle was formed on the daily chart, confirming the heavy upper limit.
The 200-day moving average remains the key medium-term indicator
Impressions
Changes in the US labor market have a major impact on the direction of the dollar
As inflation shows signs of calming, expectations of a rate cut remain strong
It seems that the market continues to be prone to fluctuations depending on the material.
Trading Impressions
The strategy of selling to test the upper limit during European trading hours was effective.
Short-term selling positions worked well during the accelerated dollar selling during New York trading hours
It was necessary to avoid buying at high prices and respond flexibly to sudden changes after the index was released.
Checklist
Have you checked the release schedule for the US CPI and employment-related indicators?
Do you know the pivots and key support and resistance levels?
Have you adjusted your stop loss settings and position sizes in advance?
Looking back
The ECB's decision to keep rates unchanged and the weakness of the US PPI led to dollar selling, with the EURUSD hitting a new high from the previous day.
summary
ECB leaves interest rates unchanged, Lagarde emphasizes data-dependent stance
Cautious views on further interest rate cuts were expressed, providing support for the euro
US PPI figures fell short of expectations, limiting the dollar's upside
Today's price movements
In the European market, the price continued to fluctuate slightly around 1.1700.
When US indicators were released during New York time, selling of the dollar intensified and the market turned upward.
The index ultimately slightly surpassed the previous day's high and closed at the 1.1730 level.
Background/materials
The ECB maintained monetary policy flexibility by not rushing to cut interest rates further.
In the US, PPI results fell short of market expectations, fuelling speculation of a rate cut.
Concerns over geopolitical risks and trade frictions have impacted investor sentiment.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
1.1700 seen as short-term support
The area around 1.1740 became an upper resistance level, and attention was focused on the trend after breaking through it.
The RSI moved up from the neutral zone, suggesting buying pressure.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
A rise with substance was confirmed on the daily chart, widening the upside potential.
The focus was on whether the pair could break out of the 1.1650-1.1750 range.
The slope of the moving average line stabilized and acted as a medium-term support.
Impressions
The results of the ECB and US indicators overlapped, strengthening the short-term trend of dollar selling.
Although the euro's underlying trend was supported, it remained unstable and could change direction depending on the latest developments.
Market participants continued to place a high priority on event risk
Trading Impressions
The European market was lackluster and often unsuitable for short-term trading.
After the announcement of the index during New York time, quick response to sudden price movements was required.
Making early decisions about taking profits and cutting losses was effective in risk management
Checklist
Have you checked the US CPI release time and forecast?
Do you know your immediate support and resistance?
Do you have pre-defined position sizes and stop-loss levels?
Looking back
The weakness in the US PPI led to dollar selling, with GBP/USD hitting new lows and highs from the previous day.
summary
US PPI fell short of expectations, limiting the dollar's upside as interest rate cuts were expected.
In the UK, expectations of an early interest rate cut are fading, and concerns remain over inflation and fiscal risks.
GBPUSD expanded both above and below the previous day's range, widening the price range.
Today's price movements
During European trading hours, the price briefly fell below 1.3450, setting a new low for the previous day.
Following the release of the indicators during New York time, selling of the dollar intensified, and the dollar rose to around 1.3600.
As a result, the previous day's high was also updated, causing fluctuations.
Background/materials
US PPI results came in below expectations, prompting dollar selling
In the UK, uncertainty over when the Bank of England will begin cutting interest rates has supported the pound, fuelled by inflation concerns.
Market participants made short-term adjustments ahead of the US CPI release
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The 1.3450 area was seen as support on the downside.
Around 1.3600 became resistance level, suggesting there is room for a short-term pullback.
The RSI has moved slightly stronger from the neutral zone.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The price continues to move within the range of 1.3420 to 1.3600.
On a daily basis, the price reached a new high from the previous day, widening the upside potential.
While the moving average is providing support, determining sustainability is an issue
Impressions
The market continues to fluctuate significantly depending on US indicators.
GBP/USD was notable for its tendency to seek direction while attempting to break out of the upside and downside.
Many trading participants were limited to short-term responses while waiting for the event to occur.
Trading Impressions
Selling was effective in attempts to break below the European level
Buyback activity intensified during New York time, necessitating short-term profit-taking decisions.
As the price range widened, we reaffirmed the importance of adjusting position size.
Checklist
Have you checked the US CPI release time and market expectations?
Do you know your key support and resistance levels?
Do you have your position size and stop loss line set in advance?
Looking back
AUD/USD significantly surpassed the previous day's high as dollar selling increased following weakness in the US PPI.
summary
US inflation figures fell short of expectations, weighing on the dollar's upside as interest rate cuts were expected.
The Australian dollar was favored for buying due to rising domestic inflation expectations.
After the release of the index in New York time, buying of the Australian dollar accelerated, and the upward trend continued towards the end of the day.
Today's price movements
Until European trading hours, the price continued to move slightly around 0.6620.
The release of the index during New York time triggered increased selling of the dollar, causing it to rise above 0.6660.
The closing price remained in the 0.6660 range, ending trading with a substantial rise.
Background/materials
US PPI fell short of expectations, and expectations of a rate cut weighed on the dollar
Australian consumer inflation expectations rise, supporting the Australian dollar
As global risk appetite intensified, demand for the dollar as a safe haven asset declined.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The 0.6620 area acted as immediate support
The price has clearly broken above 0.6660, and there is potential for further upside in the short term.
The RSI has shifted slightly from the neutral zone to a stronger position.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The daily chart confirmed a rise with substance, breaking through resistance.
In the medium term, the focus will be on whether it can break out of the 0.6550-0.6670 range.
The moving average line is also providing support, increasing the sense of stability of the underlying trend.
Impressions
The dollar remains vulnerable to fluctuations depending on the results of US indicators.
The Australian dollar is vulnerable to domestic factors as well as the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.
Short-term price movements have been led by dollar selling, but we need to see if this trend will continue.
Trading Impressions
I felt that it was effective to limit position size when waiting for an event.
Buying near support and taking profits after reaching resistance worked effectively.
When volatility increased after the release of indexes, early settlement decisions contributed to risk management
Checklist
Have you checked the US CPI release schedule and market forecasts?
Do you know your immediate support and resistance?
Do you have pre-defined position sizes and stop-loss levels?
FX Journal