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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | August Consumer Price Index (CPI, revised) [MoM] |
Graphical display
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Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | August Consumer Price Index (CPI, revised value) [Year-on-year comparison] |
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Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇬🇧 England | ★★ | July Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [MoM] |
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Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇬🇧 England | ★ | July Industrial Production [Month-on-Month] |
Graphical display
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Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇬🇧 England | ★ | July Industrial Production [Year-on-Year Comparison] |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇬🇧 England | ★ | July Manufacturing Production Index [Month-on-Month] |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) |
Graphical display
Could not get graph data
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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* We have selected indicators with high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
In the US, an increase in unemployment claims and a stabilization of inflation indicators have been confirmed, and expectations of a rate cut remain a concern. Following the release of the previous day's indicators, dollar selling prevailed, and the USD/JPY closed slightly below the previous day's low. While keeping in mind the possibility of a retest of the lower end today, it is also important to be mindful of the impact of position adjustments and rebalancing due to weekend factors.
The US CPI came in as expected, and expectations of a rate cut remained, limiting the dollar's upside. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged, and President Lagarde emphasized that her decision would depend on the data, providing support for the euro. The euro/dollar pair remained on hold during European trading hours, but the release of the data during New York trading hours triggered dollar selling, resulting in the pair closing slightly above the previous day's high. Today, we need to look for opportunities to buy on dips, while also keeping an eye on the impact of flows from the weekend rebalancing.
In the US, an increase in unemployment claims and weakness in the PPI index were confirmed, limiting the dollar's upside. The pound-dollar pair remained on a wait-and-see basis during European trading hours, but dollar selling prevailed following the release of indicators during New York trading hours, resulting in the pair closing at a new high from the previous day. Today, it is important to be mindful of the timing of buying on dips, while also being mindful of the impact of flows due to the weekend rebalancing.
The US PPI fell short of expectations, and expectations of a rate cut remained, limiting the dollar's upside. The Australian dollar traded marginally against the US dollar until European trading hours, but dollar selling intensified following the release of the index during New York trading hours, and the dollar closed at a new high from the previous day. There is no clear resistance on the daily chart, so while searching for a heavy upper limit and looking for opportunities to buy on dips, it is also important to be mindful of the impact of the weekend rebalancing.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
As European trading began, yen buying prevailed due to a decline in US long-term interest rates and reports that Takaichi was leading the LDP presidential election. Dollar selling then intensified during New York trading hours. This was compounded by rebalancing flows ahead of the weekend, resulting in noticeable fluctuations in the market. As a result, trading ended the day with a lack of direction.
As European trading began, the EURUSD tested the previous day's highs, but a renewed decline in US long-term interest rates led to dollar selling, weighing on the upside. With demand for rebalancing ahead of the weekend also contributing to the day's marked ups and downs.
GBP/USD briefly tested the upper limit during European trading hours, but a renewed decline in US long-term interest rates led to increased selling of the dollar, weighing on the upside. During New York trading hours, the market fluctuated up and down due to movements in response to US indicators, as well as flows associated with the weekend rebalancing. As a result, it was a day marked by a strong correction with little sense of direction and with the weekend approaching.
As European trading began, the AUD/USD pair tried to test the previous day's high, but a renewed decline in US long-term interest rates led to increased dollar selling, weighing on the upside. Throughout New York trading, the move was influenced by US indicators, and there was also the impact of weekend rebalancing flows, resulting in a strong correction day with the weekend in mind.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| Price Fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
US unemployment claims rise, highlighting weakness in labor market
Inflation indicators are showing a stable trend, and expectations of interest rate cuts remain high
USDJPY slightly updated its low as dollar selling prevailed following the previous day's indicators.
Expected range
Expected price movements to center around 146.80–148.00
The lower limit is likely to be around 146.80, while the upper limit is likely to be around 148.00 as a resistance zone.
Expect fluctuations within a range, taking into account fluctuations due to weekend rebalancing.
tactics
The basic policy is to focus on selling on rebounds
Build positions incrementally by taking advantage of short-term rallies
If the price continues to hit new lows, prioritize taking profits and refrain from following suit.
trigger
If it breaks above 147.90, there may be limited opportunities for pullback selling.
If the price clearly falls below 146.80, selling is likely to accelerate.
Beware of increased volatility around the time of US indicators and statements by important figures
Nullification Conditions
If the closing price exceeds 147.90, the sell-on-return strategy is likely to be negated.
Even if the price continues to clearly exceed the short-term moving average, selling will retreat
If a sudden yen-selling event occurs, the scenario will need to be revised.
Risk Event
The release of inflation-related indicators such as the US CPI is coming up.
Beware of the impact of position adjustments due to weekend rebalancing
Geopolitical risks and statements by financial authorities are also temporary factors that could cause fluctuations.
Position Management
Limit position size to 50-70% of normal size
Set profit taking just before 146.80-147.00 as a target
Stop losses will be managed based on a level above 147.90.
Checklist
Have you checked the release schedule for major US indicators?
Are you aware of the immediate support at 146.80 and resistance at 148.00?
Do you have a position adjustment plan in place to account for fluctuations due to weekend factors?
Market Summary
The US CPI was as expected, and expectations of a rate cut remained, limiting the dollar's upside.
ECB leaves interest rates unchanged, with Lagarde emphasizing that the decision will depend on the data.
EURUSD closed at a new high from the previous day as dollar selling dominated during New York time.
Expected range
Expected range around 1.1660–1.1760
The downside is likely to be around 1.1660, while the upside is likely to be around 1.1760 as a short-term resistance zone.
Considering fluctuations due to weekend flows, we expect the market to remain within a range.
tactics
The basic policy is to focus on buying on dips
Consider entering after confirming a rebound at short-term support
When prices reach new highs, prioritize taking profits and avoid excessive chasing.
trigger
If the price clearly breaks above 1.1760, buying is likely to accelerate.
If the price breaks below 1.1660, there is a possibility that the correction will intensify in the short term.
Beware of increased volatility around the time of US index releases
Nullification Conditions
If the price breaks below 1.1640 and holds at the closing price, the dip buying strategy is likely to be negated.
If the price continues to fall below the moving average, the buying opportunity will retreat.
If a sudden dollar-buying event occurs, the assumption will be disrupted.
Risk Event
Beware of the continued market reaction to the US CPI
Weekend rebalancing may cause a sudden price movement due to biased flows
Comments from ECB officials could influence the direction of the euro
Position Management
Keep position size to around 50-70% of normal size
Set profit taking just before 1.1740-1.1760 as a guideline
A clear cutoff criterion is a break of 1.1640
Checklist
Have you seen the market reaction after the US CPI?
Are you aware of the immediate support at 1.1660 and resistance at 1.1760?
Do you have a position adjustment plan in place to prepare for fluctuations due to weekend factors?
Market Summary
The dollar's upside is being limited by the increase in unemployment claims in the US and the weakness of the PPI.
GBPUSD was little changed during European trading hours, but dollar selling intensified during New York trading hours, reaching a new high from the previous day.
The market is focused on buying on dips, with an eye on weekend flows.
Expected range
Expected to trade in a range centered around 1.3500–1.3600
The downside is likely to be supported around 1.3500, while the upside is likely to be around 1.3600.
Consider the possibility that fluctuations may temporarily increase due to weekend rebalancing
tactics
The basic strategy is to focus on buying on dips
Consider splitting your entry while checking short-term support
Be aware of taking profits quickly when prices are high and minimizing risk
trigger
If the price clearly breaks above 1.3600, buying momentum is likely to increase.
If it breaks below 1.3500, a short-term correction is likely to occur.
Be aware of increased volatility around the time major indicators such as the US CPI are announced
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks below 1.3480 and maintains the closing price, the dip buying strategy is likely to be negated.
If the price falls below the medium-term moving average, buying will also decline.
If a sudden dollar-buying factor emerges, we need to reassess our assumptions.
Risk Event
The release of the US CPI is a key event that will influence the direction of the dollar.
The bias in flows due to weekend rebalancing is a temporary factor in fluctuations.
UK economic data and financial news could also influence the pound.
Position Management
Keep position size to around 50-70% of normal size
Set profit taking at around 1.3580-1.3600
A clear cutoff criterion is a break of 1.3480
Checklist
Have you checked the US CPI release time and market expectations?
Do you know the key support and resistance levels at 1.3500 and 1.3600?
Do you have a position adjustment plan in place to anticipate weekend flows?
Market Summary
The US PPI fell short of expectations, maintaining expectations of a rate cut and limiting the dollar's upside.
AUD/USD was little changed until European time, but reached a new high from the previous day following the New York time index.
There is no clear resistance on the daily chart, and the market is currently searching for an upper limit.
Expected range
Expected price movements to center around 0.6590–0.6680
The downside is likely to be around 0.6600, while the upside is likely to be around 0.6670, which is the immediate resistance zone.
Consider the possibility that fluctuations may increase even within the range due to weekend rebalancing.
tactics
The basic policy is to buy on dips
It is effective to enter gradually while checking short-term support
Once the price reaches the upper limit, be aware of reducing risk by quickly taking profits.
trigger
If the price clearly breaks above 0.6670, buying is likely to accelerate.
A break below 0.6600 is likely to lead to a stronger correction in the short term
Beware of increased volatility around the time when major indicators such as the US CPI are announced
Nullification Conditions
If the price breaks below 0.6580 and holds at the closing price, the dip buying strategy is likely to be negated.
If the short-term moving average continues to fall below the current level, buying will also decline.
If an event causes a sudden buying of dollars, the assumption will be disrupted.
Risk Event
The release of the US CPI is the key event that will determine the direction of the dollar
Weekend rebalancing flows cause sudden fluctuations
The results of Chinese economic indicators could also have an indirect impact on the Australian dollar.
Position Management
Keep position size to around 50-70% of normal size
Set profit taking just before 0.6660-0.6680 as a guideline
The clear cutoff criterion is a break of 0.6580.
Checklist
Have you checked the US CPI release time and market forecasts?
Are you aware of the immediate support at 0.6600 and resistance at 0.6670?
Do you have a position adjustment plan in place for weekend flows?
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
The day saw fluctuations as yen buying prevailed during European trading hours and dollar selling prevailed during New York trading hours.
summary
Yen buying progresses as US long-term interest rates fall and domestic political news are viewed as positive factors
During New York time, dollar selling accelerated on the back of indicators and flows
Due to the impact of the weekend rebalancing, price movements remained directionless throughout the day
Today's price movements
During European trading hours, the price fell to around 147.80.
During New York time, dollar selling intensified, temporarily testing the 147.50 level.
Throughout the day, the price range remained limited, but continued to fluctuate up and down.
Background/materials
US long-term interest rates fall again, weakening support for the dollar
Yen buying was in the spotlight following the news of the LDP presidential election.
Weekend corrections and rebalancings amplify market volatility
Technical Memo (Short Term)
Nearly immediate support confirmed around 147.50
The 148.20 level is a level where the upper limit is likely to be heavy.
It is likely to remain range bound in the short term
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The daily chart lacks direction, but the moving averages are converging.
Above 148.50, we can see that the recovery trend is strengthening.
A break below 146.80 is a level that will raise concerns about a downward trend in the medium term.
Impressions
Although he responded to the materials, he lacked decisive action throughout the game.
Market participants maintain a wait-and-see stance as multiple factors, including interest rates and political factors, intersect
It is necessary to identify the formation of a sustained trend after the event has passed.
Trading Impressions
An environment where a range strategy is considered effective in the short term
Be sure to thoroughly check support and resistance levels and take small profits
Careful lot management is important to prepare for irregular price movements due to weekend factors
Checklist
Check the trend of US long-term interest rates
Beware of news headlines related to the LDP presidential election
Beware of irregular flows due to weekend rebalancing
Looking back
During European trading hours, the dollar tested the previous day's high, but falling US long-term interest rates led to dollar selling, causing the price to fluctuate up and down.
summary
During European trading hours, the dollar was tested at higher levels, but then selling of the dollar progressed.
The weekend factor of rebalancing demand added to the trend, resulting in a lack of direction.
Even towards the end of the game, the game continued to be unstable, fluctuating up and down.
Today's price movements
There were times when the dollar tested the previous day's high, but dollar selling prevailed due to the decline in US long-term interest rates.
From Europe to New York time, the dollar remained weak despite concerns about its weakness.
The lack of direction was noticeable due to supply and demand caused by rebalancing.
Background/materials
US long-term interest rates fell again, limiting the dollar's upside.
In Europe, there were no major economic indicators released, and prices moved amid a lack of material.
With the weekend approaching, market participants were likely to take a more cautious stance.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
In the short term, the price tested the previous day's high but failed to break through and fell back.
The 1.1300 level continued to be seen as resistance on the upside.
The downside was seen as support around 1.1200.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the price continues to move within a range despite lacking direction.
The moving averages are converging and we are in a phase where we are aware of the accumulation of energy.
In the medium term, the price is likely to remain in the range of 1.1200–1.1350
Impressions
Amid a lack of material, it seems that US interest rate trends are determining the direction of the dollar.
There were few factors that influenced the strength or weakness of the euro itself, and the focus was on its movement against the dollar.
It was notable that the market as a whole was taking a stronger corrective stance ahead of the weekend.
Trading Impressions
In the short term, the market has confirmed the weakness of the upper limit following the failure to test the high price.
Trading that takes advantage of rebounds and declines within the range seemed effective.
It is considered safe to take into account weekend factors and adjust position sizes modestly.
Checklist
Check the trend of US long-term interest rates
Continue to be aware of the range of 1.1200–1.1350
Be aware of fluctuation risks due to weekend rebalancing
Looking back
During European trading hours, the dollar briefly tested the upper limit, but dollar selling intensified due to a decline in US long-term interest rates, and during New York trading hours, the dollar fluctuated due to indices and weekend rebalancing.
summary
The day was dominated by adjustments aimed at the weekend, leaving little sense of direction.
A wide range of movements was observed, from a test of upward movement during European hours to a decline and rebound during New York hours.
Although the market recorded new highs and lows, it closed with a trend that lacked sustainability.
Today's price movements
During European trading hours, the market continued to move higher, continuing the trend of the previous day.
The upside remained heavy due to a further decline in US interest rates and selling pressure on the dollar.
During New York trading hours, the combination of indices and rebalancing demand led to large fluctuations.
Background/materials
US long-term interest rates have fallen again, raising awareness of the dollar's weight
US economic data fell short of market expectations, fuelling dollar selling
Rebalancing demand ahead of the weekend shook the market as a flow
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the short-term chart, the price fell sharply after testing the upper limit, and then rebounded near the support line.
The recovery after hitting a new low was limited, and the price remained within a short-term range.
Indicators show no signs of overheating, and the market is seeking balance within its fluctuations.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On a daily basis, both the high and low prices were updated, reflecting a lack of direction.
The combination of weight at the upper end of the range and firmness at the lower end resulted in an unbalanced movement.
The weekly chart still shows no significant trend and remains flat.
Impressions
Interest rate movements and rebalancing impacts overlapped, causing fundamentals and flows to intersect.
While there were many ups and downs, it was ultimately difficult to determine the direction of the game.
It is believed that the environment will continue to be one in which companies will wait for new information.
Trading Impressions
It was necessary to quickly identify the upward trend and have the flexibility to seize a short-term reversal.
The recovery after the new low was limited, making it important to decide when to take profits and when to cut losses.
In a market with strong correctional trends, the strategy of not carrying over positions and focusing on intraday rotation seemed effective.
Checklist
Check the trend of US long-term interest rates and the dollar's reaction
Understand the flow impact of weekend rebalancing
Be aware of the lower and upper limits of the short-term range
Looking back
During European trading hours, the dollar tested the previous day's high, but a decline in US long-term interest rates led to increased selling of the dollar, and during New York trading hours, the price fluctuated due to indices and weekend rebalancing.
summary
The decline in US interest rates has made the dollar feel heavy, and the Australian dollar has only temporarily tested its upper limit.
During New York trading hours, the price movements were unstable, fluctuating greatly up and down due to the addition of indexes and rebalancing demand.
The overall market lacked direction, with a strong correction trend continuing.
Today's price movements
During European trading hours, the market was aware of the previous day's high, but subsequently showed signs of sluggish growth.
While the US dollar's selling intensified due to a further decline in US interest rates, the Australian dollar's rise was limited.
During New York time, the weekend factor was added, causing noticeable fluctuations in the market.
Background/materials
US long-term interest rates fell again, increasing selling pressure on the dollar
US economic data fell short of market expectations, supporting dollar selling
Weekend rebalancing flows further exacerbated market volatility
Technical Memo (Short Term)
On the short-term chart, the price tested the previous day's high before being pushed back, resulting in a directionless movement.
There were times when the decline stopped near the support line, but the rebound was limited.
The price continued to fluctuate within a range, with short-term investors making the majority of the trades.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On a daily basis, the price tried to reach a high, but was pushed back at the closing price, and the upper limit was considered heavy.
There are no clear signs of a trend and the price remains range bound.
There was a lot of noise due to adjustments ahead of the weekend, and no sustained direction was confirmed.
Impressions
Market conditions differed between European and New York times, with short-term fundamental factors having a strong influence.
Flow factors such as rebalancing demand were involved, and the situation was difficult with a mixture of real demand and speculation.
The overall market showed a strong wait-and-see attitude, with an eye on trends at the start of the week.
Trading Impressions
Rather than following the upward trend, it was necessary to respond with awareness of the risk of a pullback.
Assuming fluctuations due to weekend factors, a strategy of limiting position size seemed effective.
In the short term, it was necessary to prioritize profit taking and make flexible decisions without being rigid in one direction.
Checklist
Check the trend of US long-term interest rates
Be aware of weekend rebalancing flows
Identify the upper and lower limits of the daily range
FX Journal