Market Summary

The market is seeing interest rate cuts in the wake of weak US unemployment claims and PPI figures, and the decline in US long-term interest rates is holding down the dollar's upside.

News of the LDP presidential election may affect the yen, and with the Japanese market closed and the start of the week also bringing in flows, the market is lacking direction.

Expected range

Expected to move around 147.20-148.20

While the downside is checking support around 147.00, the upside is likely to be focused on the rebound high of around 148.50.

tactics

The basic stance is to focus on selling on rebounds

Since the market is expected to test the lows, prioritize entry during the recovery phase while also paying attention to short-term pullback adjustments.

trigger

If the price breaks below 147.00, it is likely to move downwards

If the price breaks above 148.50, the sell-on-return strategy needs to be revised.

US indexes during New York time and European flows could be short-term triggers

Nullification Conditions

If the price clearly breaks above 148.50 and settles in the high range, the sell-on-return scenario will collapse.

If news about Japanese political factors accelerates yen selling, we will need to revise our assumptions.

Risk Event

Economic indicators such as the New York Fed Manufacturing Index

News flow related to the LDP presidential election

Supply and demand fluctuations due to rebalancing at the start of the week

Position Management

Adjust the entry to a smaller size, about 1/3 to 1/2.

Set profit taking in stages, aiming for 20-30 pips

Stop loss will be executed when it is clearly confirmed that the price exceeds 148.50.

Checklist

Check the trends in US long-term interest rates and risk assets

Keeping an eye on the impact of LDP presidential election coverage on the yen

Responding to short-term flows due to rebalancing at the start of the week

Market Summary

The ECB kept its policy interest rate unchanged, and President Lagarde expressed caution, saying that it would depend on the data, supporting the euro.

In the US, expectations of an interest rate cut are growing due to weak PPI and unemployment insurance claims, and the decline in US long-term interest rates is weighing on the dollar.

Last weekend, the market briefly tested a high during European trading hours, but fluctuated during New York trading hours, closing with a lack of direction.

Expected range

The lower limit is around 1.1580, and the upper limit is around 1.1750.

We need to assume that the price will move within a range and be prepared for a breakout either up or down.

This is a situation where we can simultaneously confirm the weight of the high range and the strength of the pullback.

tactics

The basic idea is to assume a range rotation and combine short-term buying on dips and selling on rallies.

Prioritize profit taking just before 1.1700, and be mindful of buying when the price tests support at the lower end.

In the event of a sudden change, avoid awkward positions and respond flexibly.

trigger

The turning point for an upward breakout will be whether it clearly exceeds 1.1750.

If it breaks below 1.1580, be careful of the range collapsing.

Short-term triggers include economic indicators in the US and early European flows.

Nullification Conditions

If it settles well above 1.1750, the strategy of selling on a rebound will be ruled out.

On the other hand, if the price clearly breaks below 1.1580 and falls on the daily chart, the strategy of buying on dips will be invalid.

Be wary that the range assumption will collapse if either the high or low price is updated.

Risk Event

The US New York Fed manufacturing index and comments made before the FOMC meeting.

Price-related indicators and statements by important figures in the eurozone.

Rebalancing flows and sudden geopolitical news are typical of the start of a week.

Position Management

Position size is limited to about half of normal size.

Take profits around 1.1700, and cut losses when the price falls below 1.1580 or exceeds 1.1760.

Limit risk while following short-term price movements.

Checklist

Have we seen a reaction around 1.1700?

Has support around 1.1580 been confirmed to be maintained?

Did you adjust your positions before the release of indicators or statements by important people?

Market Summary

In the US, weak PPI and unemployment claims have raised expectations of a rate cut, and the decline in US long-term interest rates has also weighed on the dollar.

There is a lack of new information on the UK side, and the pound alone is not giving any clear direction.

At the end of last week, the market was pushed down during European trading hours, but closed with a lack of direction during New York trading hours, fluctuating up and down.

Expected range

The downside is expected to be around 1.3520, and the upside is expected to be around 1.3600.

In the short term, the movement is mainly between support and resistance

The range of price movements is somewhat limited, and we are waiting for a breakout

tactics

The basic strategy is to be aware of range rotation, and to use a combination of buying on dips near support and selling on rallies near resistance.

If the movement to test the high price is slow, prioritize taking profits early

It's effective to fight in small increments until you get a sense of direction.

trigger

If it breaks out above 1.3600, attention will be focused on whether a clear settlement can be seen.

A break below 1.3520 is likely to signal a breakdown of the range.

Early European trading flows and US economic indicators during New York trading hours are key for the short term

Nullification Conditions

If the price settles above 1.3600, the sell-on-return strategy will be negated.

If the price breaks below 1.3520 and hits a new daily low, buying on dips is ineffective.

If the range assumption is denied, change the strategy to match the direction of the break.

Risk Event

US NY Fed manufacturing index and US housing-related index

Statements by British dignitaries and financial news

Rebalancing flow specific to the start of a week

Position Management

Position size is limited to about half of normal size

Take profits around 1.3580, stop losses when trading below 1.3520 or above 1.3610

Focus on short-term trading and avoid long-term holding

Checklist

Is support near 1.3520 holding?

Did you check whether it would break through 1.3600 during European and New York time?

Did you adjust your position before the risk event?

Market Summary

In the US, PPI fell short of expectations, and expectations of a rate cut, coupled with an increase in unemployment claims, have limited the dollar's upside.

There is little new news from Australia, while Chinese economic indicators and resource prices remain key

On the previous day, the market attempted to push downwards from European time to New York time, but ended the day with a strong correction overall.

Expected range

The downside is expected to be around 0.6580, and the upside is expected to be around 0.6700.

The battle tends to be centered around the range, so be careful of movements that lack direction.

The focus is on whether the price can extend its upper limit while confirming the firmness of the lower limit.

tactics

The basic strategy is to buy on dips and emphasize reactions at support levels

Prioritize taking profits at the upper limit of 0.6660-0.6700 and focus on short-term rotation

In the event of a sudden change, do not overdo it and limit your position size

trigger

If the price can clearly break above 0.6700 and establish itself, buying interest may increase.

If the price breaks 0.6580, downward pressure is likely to increase.

European trade flows and US economic indicators in New York tend to be short-term drivers.

Nullification Conditions

If the price breaks above 0.6700 and settles on the daily chart, the sell-on-return scenario will be invalid.

Conversely, if it breaks below 0.6580 and hits a new daily low, it would be a bad idea to buy on dips.

If the support or resistance level on either the top or bottom is clearly broken, the range assumption will collapse.

Risk Event

NY Fed manufacturing index and housing-related index announced

China's major economic indicators, including industrial production and retail sales

Rebalancing and fluctuations in resource markets typical of the start of a week

Position Management

Position size should be about half of normal size

Take profits around 0.6660, stop losses when the price falls below 0.6580 or exceeds 0.6710

Focus on short-term trading and keep positions light before and after events

Checklist

Have you checked whether the 0.6580 support holds?

Did you check whether the price had broken through 0.6700 during European and New York time?

Did you adjust your position before the risk event?

Looking back

In addition to the Japanese market being closed, there was limited material ahead of the US FOMC and Bank of Japan meetings this week, and while the price gradually fell, it remained within a narrow range and continued to fluctuate within the downward wave of the 11th.

summary

The market is waiting for events to happen, and fluctuations in US interest rates are small, limiting the direction of the dollar.

Buying on dips and selling on rallies were mixed, and the price range narrowed during the day.

Today's price movements

Although the yen started to fall gradually from the mid-147 yen range in the early stages, it continues to trade around the 147 yen range.

The recovery from Europe to New York was slow and did not clearly exceed the upper limit of the range.

Background/materials

Flows thinned due to Japan's holiday, and position adjustments dominated ahead of the US FOMC and Bank of Japan meetings this week.

There was little new information on important indicators, and the market remained in a waiting mood for headlines.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The downward trend on the 11th continues, and the recovery is gradually suppressed.

The upper limit is heavy in the upper 147 yen range, while the lower limit is firming in the lower 147 yen range.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The price continues to consolidate between the upper 146 yen range and just before 149 yen, and the medium-term trend is neutral.

The market continues to be prone to price stagnation as prices wait for a breakout

Impressions

Following unreasonably before an event is risky, so maintain a stance of halting any actions outside of the expected scenario

We believe that prioritizing short-term profit taking and increasing the frequency of information updates will be effective.

Trading Impressions

Basically, the size is kept low by rotating the range, and profit taking is shallow and loss cutting is executed mechanically.

Before the indicator, keep your position light and prioritize waiting rather than following when there is a sudden change.

Checklist

Did this reaffirm the support in the lower 147 yen range and the heavy upper limit in the latter half?

Do you know the time and content of US interest rates and related headlines?

Did you reassess your position size and risk tolerance before and after the event?

Looking back

Buying occurred during European trading hours, and the price reached a new high from the previous day, but after entering New York it stagnated and did not reach last week's high.

summary

With the FOMC meeting coming up this week, US interest rates are expected to remain stable, with the euro seeing a mix of buying on dips and selling on rallies, leaving little room for directional movement.

The market remained awaiting the headlines, and short-term price ranges tended to narrow.

Today's price movements

In the early European session, buying was dominant and there were times when the price tested the 1.1750 level, but this did not continue and the momentum stalled.

By New York, the range was 1.1710–1.1740, slowing the pursuit of higher prices.

Background/materials

The dollar is struggling to move higher amid expectations of an interest rate cut amid weak US PPI and unemployment claims.

The ECB will maintain a data-dependent stance, which could support the euro's weakness, but new information is limited.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

Support is expected to be near 1.1700 → 1.1680, while resistance is expected to be near 1.1750 → 1.1780.

The RSI is in the neutral zone, and a breakout requires confirmation of volume and consecutive bullish candles.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The price continues to stagnate in the 1.1600–1.1820 range, and the trend is moving towards neutral.

While the market remains above the moving average, there is no decisive factor and the market remains awaiting an event.

Impressions

Avoid unreasonable following and prioritize checking price movements within the expected range

Increase the frequency of information updates and check the scenario assumptions until the event is over

Trading Impressions

Basically, the size is controlled by rotating the range, profit taking is shallow, and loss cutting is executed mechanically.

Before the indicator, keep your position light and prioritize watching rather than following when there is a sudden change.

Checklist

Have you confirmed whether there is a clear break above 1.1750?

Will the 1.1700–1.1680 support zone hold?

Do you know the time and content of US indicators and statements by important figures?

Looking back

During European trading hours, buying was seen and the previous day's high was updated, but after entering New York, the following weakened and growth stagnated, and the breakout above the daily resistance has not been confirmed.

summary

With the FOMC and Bank of England meetings coming up this week, fluctuations in US interest rates are small and the dollar is weighing on the upside, while there is little new news on the UK side, limiting the direction of the market.

Buying and selling on a rebound are intertwined, and in the short term, the market conditions are confirming both the weight of the upper limit and the firmness of the pullback.

Today's price movements

In the early stages of trading in London, buying was dominant and the pair tested the 1.3580 level, but then stalled.

After entering New York, the market converged to the 1.3550-1.3600 range, and the trend towards higher prices did not continue, with the market trading fluctuating just before the 1.3550 mark.

Background/materials

Dollar upside capped by interest rate cut expectations following weakness in US PPI and unemployment claims

The Bank of England's stance is unclear and gilt movements and flows are the main drivers in the short term

Technical Memo (Short Term)

Resistance is 1.3600 → 1.3635 Support is 1.3520 → 1.3500 Reaction is being confirmed

Momentum is neutral, and a breakout requires consecutive bullish candles and shallower dips.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The price continues to stagnate in the 1.3470–1.3635 band, and range color will prevail in the mid-term.

The price will continue to move around the moving average, and the direction will depend on events.

Impressions

Before the event, do not try to chase a breakout, but check the quality of price movements within the expected range.

When the upward momentum is sluggish, prioritize taking profits and avoid pursuing too far.

Trading Impressions

Basically, it will rotate in a range, with the size being limited. Profit taking will be around 1.3580, and stop loss will be executed mechanically when it breaks 1.3520 or exceeds 1.3610.

Keep your positions light around the indicators and consider only the initial move to follow the trend in the event of a sudden change.

Checklist

Have you confirmed whether the price will clearly break above 1.3600 based on actual prices and trading patterns?

Have you verified whether support at 1.3520 will be maintained and whether there will be a run after breaking it?

Did you understand today's indicators and the times of important people's remarks and manage them in conjunction with the most recent flow?

Looking back

With the FOMC meeting coming up this week, US interest rates are showing little fluctuation and there is little new information on the Australian side. In the early part of the Asian session, the market saw a buying trend but then stagnated. However, in the latter half of the New York session, the market slightly surpassed the previous day's high and closed in the high range.

summary

The external environment is likely to suppress the dollar's upside, while there is a lack of Australian-specific factors, limiting the sense of direction.

The pullback was shallow, and the day reaffirmed the firmness of the bottom in the upper 0.66 range, with the mood of waiting for a breakout continuing.

Today's price movements

Although buying dominated in Asia and Europe, prices temporarily struggled to rise due to a pullback just before the previous day's high.

The first half of the New York session was stagnant, but towards the end of the session it slightly exceeded the previous day's high and ended trading mainly in the upper 0.66 range.

Background/materials

Weak US PPI and unemployment claims support interest rate cut expectations and limit dollar upside

New material from Australia is limited, with Chinese indicators and resource prices the main clues

The influence of position adjustment and flow before the event was relatively large

Technical Memo (Short Term)

Support is 0.6580 → 0.6600, and resistance is 0.6660 → 0.6700.

Momentum is neutral, and to chase higher prices, we need to confirm consecutive bullish candles and shallow pullbacks.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The price continues to stagnate in the 0.6520–0.6700 range, and the medium-term trend is neutral

While the price is moving along the moving average, it lacks a decisive factor and is waiting for an event to pass.

Impressions

When there are fewer headlines, it is more effective to assess the quality of price movements and avoid unreasonable following.

If the stall at high prices continues, we should stop and reassess the scenario assumptions.

Trading Impressions

Basically, the size is limited by a range rotation, and profit taking is prioritized at 0.6660–0.6700. Stop losses are mechanically executed if the price breaks below 0.6580.

Keep your positions light before the indicator and limit yourself to following the trend only at the initial stage in the event of a sudden change.

Checklist

Have you confirmed whether the price will break above 0.6700 and settle there based on the actual price and trading pattern?

Have you verified whether support at 0.6580 is maintained and whether there is any running after breaking?

Have you organized the time and content of today's US indexes and related headlines?