Market Summary

Today, the market is waiting for events with the FOMC and Chairman Powell's press conference coming up.

The initial movement of US interest rates will be the biggest factor, and the price range will likely narrow until the announcement.

Flow-driven movements predominate within the consolidation after the August employment statistics

Expected range

The base scenario is around 146.50–148.50

When expanded, fluctuations up to 146.00–149.00 are allowed.

Check the quality of the reaction at the 147.00 and 148.00 milestones

tactics

Based on the range rotation, pick up small amounts at the support zone and spread out by selling on rallies at the resistance zone

Before the event, we thoroughly controlled the size of the fish and focused on clam feeding.

After the break is confirmed, follow it only to a limited extent and avoid chasing higher and lower prices.

trigger

If it breaks out, it will settle above 147.80 and test 148.00 to see if it can be followed in the short term.

The downside breaks below 147.00, and we see a move towards 146.50 and strong buying back.

The time period is immediately after the initial European response, the announcement of statements, and press conference headlines.

Nullification Conditions

If it continues to stagnate above 148.50, the assumption of a pullback sell is invalid

If the price continues to stagnate below 146.50, the assumption of buying on dips will be invalid

If the sudden change due to the event stays outside the expected range for a long time, move to a wait-and-see approach.

Risk Event

FOMC statement, dot hints and initial interest rate movements

Chairman Powell's hawkish tone and balance sheet comments

US headlines and government bond supply and demand news

Position Management

Open interest is limited to less than half of the usual amount, and even less immediately before the announcement

Profit taking will be carried out in stages at the upper end of 147.70–148.00 and the lower end of 147.10–146.80

Stop loss will be mechanically executed when the price exceeds 148.60 or falls below 146.40.

Checklist

Have you grasped the changes in order quotes and trading volume around 147.00 and 147.80?

Have we summarized the key points of the statement and press conference and the initial course of US interest rates?

Did you update your allowable loss and position size before and after the event?

Market Summary

Today, the market is waiting for events with the FOMC and Chairman Powell's press conference coming up.

The initial movement of US interest rates and the indications of the dots will likely influence the direction of the dollar.

EURUSD remains at its highest level in four years, with the focus on continued upward pressure

Expected range

The basic assumption is that the price will fluctuate between 1.1820 and 1.1920.

During expansion, fluctuations up to around 1.1800–1.1950 are allowed.

Beware of short-term excesses in time periods and headlines

tactics

Basically, we adopt range rotation and give some priority to buying on dips.

When approaching resistance, we will incorporate selling on the rebound and respond by diversifying into small lots.

Before the event, strictly limit size and take profits in stages

trigger

If it breaks out, it will settle at 1.1900 and exceed 1.1920 to see if it can test 1.1950.

The downside is a break below 1.1840, so we will check the depth of the run to 1.1820 and the buyback.

The time period is the initial European reaction and the initial interest rate movement immediately after the announcement of the statement and the press conference.

Nullification Conditions

If the price continues to stagnate above 1.1950, the assumption of a sell-off is invalid

If the price clearly breaks below 1.1820, the dip buying assumption will be invalid.

If the price remains outside the expected range for a long time due to volatility, switch to wait-and-see.

Risk Event

FOMC statement, dot revision suggestions, and nuances of the press conference

Changes in risk appetite due to U.S. Treasury auctions and sudden changes in stock prices

Sudden statements by important figures and geopolitical headlines

Position Management

Open positions will be capped at half of the usual amount, and even lower immediately before the announcement.

Profit taking will be carried out in stages at the upper end of 1.1880–1.1900 and the lower end of 1.1860–1.1840

Stop losses are mechanically executed above 1.1955 or below 1.1815

Checklist

Have you confirmed whether the price will break above 1.1900–1.1920 and the pattern of the breakout?

Have you grasped the strength of the pullback around 1.1820 and the depth of the buy orders?

Have you summarized the key points of the statements and press conferences and the transmission route of the initial movement of US interest rates?

Market Summary

With the FOMC and Powell press conferences coming up today, the initial movement of US interest rates will be the biggest factor

With the UK MPC meeting scheduled for the next day, the pound is expected to see relatively cautious flows

Before an event, investors tend to wait and see, and the direction depends on the headlines.

Expected range

Baseline scenario: around 1.3550–1.3680

Above: Confirming the quality of the retracement around 1.3635–1.3680

Below, check for a reaction at the support band of 1.3550 → 1.3520

tactics

The tactic is based on range rotation and is neutral

Sell on pullbacks at resistance zones and buy on dips at support zones in small, diversified lots

Refrain from new investments just before the event and maintain light positions

trigger

If it breaks out, it will stagnate above 1.3680 and test 1.3700 to see if it can be followed up.

The downside breaks below 1.3550, and the move towards 1.3520 and the strength of the buyback are confirmed.

Focus on the initial European reaction and the initial interest rate movement immediately after the announcement of the statement and the press conference.

Nullification Conditions

If the price continues to stagnate above 1.3700, the assumption of a pullback sell is invalid

If the price clearly breaks below 1.3520, the dip buying assumption is invalid.

If the price remains outside the expected range for a long period of time due to volatility, move to a wait-and-see approach.

Risk Event

FOMC statement and dot suggestion and nuances of Powell's press conference

Changes in risk appetite due to initial movements in US interest rates and stocks

UK MPC-related headlines and government bond supply and demand trends for the next day

Position Management

Open interest will be capped at less than half of the usual amount and adjusted even more lightly before the announcement.

Profit taking will be carried out in stages at the upper end of 1.3630–1.3660 and the lower end of 1.3570–1.3540

Stop loss will be mechanically executed when the price exceeds 1.3710 or falls below 1.3515.

Checklist

Have you checked the time and volume in the upper range of 1.3635–1.3680?

Have you grasped the depth of the support zone of 1.3550 → 1.3520 and the execution?

Have you updated the event time and size and withdrawal criteria for each scenario?

Market Summary

Today, the market is waiting for events with the FOMC and Chairman Powell's press conference coming up.

The initial movement of US interest rates and the nuances of the statement will likely influence the direction of the dollar.

There is little new information on the Australian side, so the clues are the resource market and China-related headlines

Expected range

The basic assumption is that it will fluctuate around 0.6620–0.6705.

When expanding, fluctuations up to around 0.6600–0.6720 are allowed.

The center is around 0.6660 and the up and down dwell time is evaluated.

tactics

The strategy is based on range rotation, with buying on dips and selling on rallies in small amounts.

Refrain from new purchases just before the event and maintain light positions

After the indicator is released, initial follow-up will be limited to a short period of time, and policies will be updated depending on whether or not it has taken root.

trigger

If it breaks out, it will settle at 0.6700 and test 0.6710 to see if it can be followed up.

If the price breaks below 0.6620, we will check the movement towards 0.6600 and the depth of the buyback.

Focus on the initial European reaction and the initial interest rate movement immediately after the announcement of the statement and the press conference.

Nullification Conditions

If it continues to stagnate above 0.6715, the assumption of a pullback sell is invalid

If the price clearly breaks below 0.6600, the dip buying assumption will be invalid.

If the price remains outside the expected range for a long period of time due to volatility, we will temporarily move to a wait-and-see approach.

Risk Event

FOMC statement and dot suggestion and nuances of Chairman Powell's press conference

Initial changes in US interest rates and stocks and the impact of US bond supply and demand

Headline risks of resource prices and China-related indicators

Position Management

Open interest is capped at less than half of the usual amount, and adjusted even more lightly just before the announcement

Profit taking will be carried out in stages at the upper end of 0.6690–0.6700 and the lower end of 0.6630–0.6615

Stop loss is executed mechanically when the price exceeds 0.6715 or falls below 0.6595

Checklist

Have you confirmed the upside reaction and retention time around 0.6700?

Did you check the depth of buybacks at the support band of 0.6620 → 0.6600?

Have you updated the event time, scenario-specific size, and withdrawal criteria?

Looking back

Before the FOMC meeting, the market continued to wait and see, and although it temporarily fell after the policy interest rate announcement, there was buying back and it closed with a positive candlestick.

summary

In the early stages, the market lacked direction and was pushed down to the mid-145 yen range at times.

As uncertainty over the outlook for U.S. interest rates remained, movements supporting the lower end of the market prevailed towards the end of the day.

The daily chart formed a bullish candle with a long lower shadow, highlighting the possibility of a short-term rebound.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, the yen fluctuated little, mainly in the low 146 yen range.

Following the announcement of the policy interest rate during New York time, the index fell sharply to around 145.50, before rebounding to around 147.00.

The closing price settled in the high 146 yen range, fluctuating up and down but maintaining the lower end.

Background/materials

The Federal Reserve cut its policy rate by 25 basis points, signaling that the rate cut cycle will continue.

The statement highlighted risks to employment and growth, and the dovish message sparked dollar selling.

In Japan, despite weak economic indicators, the Bank of Japan has not indicated any major policy changes.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The area around 145.50 was seen as immediate support.

The immediate resistance level was around 147.00, and attention was focused on whether it would be broken through.

There were times when the price fell below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, but it rebounded and showed a short-term recovery.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

On the daily chart, the price continues to test the lower limit of the rising wedge.

The 100-day moving average is the benchmark for the medium-term lower limit.

The RSI showed a slight recovery from the oversold zone, suggesting a corrective rebound.

Impressions

The market reaction to the interest rate cut decision was limited to temporary selling of the dollar, and the strength of the buying back was impressive.

The direction of monetary policy will continue to weigh on the dollar, but it is unclear whether pressure for a stronger yen will continue.

The large price fluctuations highlighted the importance of position management during times of event risk.

Trading Impressions

Buying on dips with an eye on support and reducing positions before the event were effective.

It is commendable that the company was not shaken by the temporary sharp drop and was able to take advantage of the lower limit of the range.

However, it is difficult to decide whether to take profits during a sudden rebound, and the challenge became whether to increase or protect profit margins.

Checklist

Reconfirm support levels around 145.50.

Verify the strength of the resistance around 147.00.

Watch how the market reacts to the pace of future Fed rate cuts.

Looking back

Before the FOMC meeting, the market was on a wait-and-see basis, and after the policy interest rate announcement, the market rose temporarily but then fell sharply, resulting in a long bearish candle with an upper shadow on the daily chart.

summary

In the early stages, the market continued to move slightly around 1.1800, and it seemed as though the market was waiting for an event.

Following the Fed's decision to cut interest rates, euro buying intensified, pushing the exchange rate up to around 1.1875.

After that, the dollar was bought back and the level fell.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, the price moved within a range around 1.1800.

After the interest rate announcement in New York time, it rose sharply to around 1.1875, but the upside did not increase.

In the final stages, the price fell back below 1.1800, and the daily chart closed with a bearish candle.

Background/materials

The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points, signaling a continuation of the rate-cutting cycle.

The statement highlighted employment and growth risks, triggering dollar selling.

Meanwhile, strong US retail sales figures helped to dampen expectations of a larger rate cut.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

1.1875 was the most recent high and provided strong resistance

1.1779-1.1800 is seen as short-term support

Unable to break above the moving average, the pressure of pullback selling was felt

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The daily chart formed a bearish candle with an upper shadow, confirming the strength of the upper limit around 1.1900.

In the medium term, the range from the upper 1.1700s will continue.

The RSI has fallen slightly from its high range, and the correction has intensified.

Impressions

The impression that the euro buying following the interest rate cut announcement was temporary and dollar buying prevailed was left.

The ups and downs in the market indicate a strong sense of uncertainty surrounding monetary policy.

I once again realized the importance of short-term position management in response to event risks.

Trading Impressions

It was a day that tested profit-taking decisions during short-term rapid growth periods.

New purchases at high prices are likely to be caught up in a decline, so caution is advised.

There were many situations where selling on rallies that took advantage of support at the lower end was relatively effective.

Checklist

Reconfirming the high level of 1.1875

Test support at 1.1779-1.1800 to hold

Monitor market reaction to the pace of Fed rate cuts

Looking back

The market was in a wait-and-see position before the FOMC meeting, but after the policy interest rate announcement it rose temporarily, but then fell back, resulting in a long bearish candle with an upper shadow on the daily chart.

summary

In the early stages, the price remained in a small range around 1.3600.

Following the announcement of the interest rate cut, buying of the pound intensified, and the price rose to around 1.3670.

After that, the dollar was bought back and the level fell.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, the market remained calm, hovering around 1.3600.

After the interest rate cut announcement in New York time, it rose to around 1.3670.

In the final stages, the exchange rate fell sharply, falling below 1.3600 at times.

Background/materials

The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points, strengthening the market's view that interest rates will continue to be lowered.

The statement mentioned employment and growth risks, prompting dollar selling.

Meanwhile, UK inflation remained high, and expectations of a BoE interest rate cut receded.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

1.3575 acted as immediate support

1.3670 became resistance and failed to break through

It failed to surpass the short-term moving average and fell back.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

1.3500 is seen as a benchmark for the mid-term downside

The area around 1.3700 is a strong resistance zone, suppressing the market's upside.

The RSI fell from its high range and showed a correction color.

Impressions

The price movements following the policy event did not continue in one direction but fluctuated.

This shows that interest rate policies in both the US and UK remain a focus of the market.

The sharp rebound followed by a pullback reminded us of the volatility of price movements during event risk.

Trading Impressions

It was difficult to make profit-taking decisions during the sudden rise immediately after the event.

Short-term stop-loss management was effective in avoiding buying at high prices

Short-term trading utilizing support levels was relatively effective

Checklist

Confirmation that support near 1.3575 holds

Keep an eye on whether the resistance zone between 1.3670 and 1.3700 can be broken

Tracking changes in the Fed and Bank of England monetary policy outlook

Looking back

The market continued to move slightly ahead of the FOMC meeting, but rose after the announcement of the policy interest rate, then fell sharply, resulting in a long bearish candle with an upper shadow on the daily chart.

summary

In the early stages, the market was on a wait-and-see basis, with little sense of direction, and the price continued to fluctuate around 0.6670.

The Fed's interest rate cut led to dollar selling, pushing the dollar up to around 0.6700.

After that, dollar buying became dominant and the market began to fall.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, the price fluctuated in a range around 0.6670

The price rose to around 0.6700 following the announcement of the policy interest rate during New York time.

In the final stages, dollar buying pushed the price back to around 0.6650.

Background/materials

The Fed cut its policy rate by 25 basis points, raising concerns about the prospect of further rate cuts.

The statement cited risks to the economy and employment, temporarily triggering dollar selling.

On the other hand, Australian dollar buying did not last due to concerns about Australia's employment statistics.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

0.6700 was seen as immediate resistance

0.6650 was a potential support and was tested towards the end of the day.

The failure to break above the short-term moving average was the reason for the pullback

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

On the daily chart, a bearish candle with an upper shadow was formed, confirming the strength of the upper limit.

The 0.6600 level is the mid-term downside target.

The RSI fell from its high range and showed a correction color.

Impressions

Australian dollar buying following the interest rate cut was temporary and lacked sustainability

Uncertainty over US monetary policy is affecting the overall dollar market

The up and down swings were typical of events that cause risk.

Trading Impressions

It was difficult to decide whether to take profits during a sudden rise in prices, and a flexible response was required.

Short-term trading using support levels proved effective to a certain extent

The sell-on-rebound strategy worked during the downturn.

Checklist

Reconfirming resistance near 0.6700

Testing the strength of support at 0.6650-0.6600

Keep an eye on Australian employment data and the outlook for Fed rate cuts