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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★ | September Consumer Confidence (Preliminary) |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
|
* We have selected indicators with high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Important remarks and market closures
| kinds | time | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statements by VIPs | 🇬🇧 England | Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks |
Today's Outlook
Following the announcement of the policy interest rate the previous day, the market has been moving in a circular direction and is lacking new clues. Overall, the market continues to trade within a range, and is prone to fluctuations depending on new information.
The previous day saw no signs of consolidating, with selling prevailing throughout the day and limited recovery. At present, no clear bottom has been confirmed, and we need to see where support will be.
The previous day saw no downward consolidation and selling prevailed throughout the day, limiting the recovery. At present, no clear support has been confirmed, and we need to carefully assess where support will come from.
The previous day saw no downward consolidation and selling prevailed throughout the day, limiting the recovery. At present, no clear support has been identified, and we need to carefully assess where support will be found.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
Following the US FOMC meeting last week, there was a lack of new material, and investors were wary of US interest rates and comments from Fed officials, as well as the Bank of Japan's stance and possible intervention. The mood of waiting for a risk event continued, making it difficult to determine market direction. During Tokyo hours, the market slightly surpassed the previous day's high, but selling became dominant during European hours. The recovery was limited, and investors were aware of the weight of the upper limit. In the end, the market only moved in small increments, moving within a very narrow range.
Following the US FOMC meeting last week, there was little new material, and investors were focused on minor adjustments to US interest rates and comments from key Fed officials. In Europe, economic sentiment indicators and comments from ECB officials supported the euro. Buying came in from Europe, and although the market was temporarily depressed in New York, buying again became dominant, and the market closed slightly above the previous day's high.
Although there was a lack of new material, sluggish US interest rates held down the dollar's upside, supporting the pound. Buying came in from Europe, and although it was temporarily depressed as the market entered New York, buying prevailed again. Selling on the rebound was limited, and the market only rose slightly. The buying-led market mood continued throughout the day, closing slightly higher.
The price reached a new low from the previous day during Tokyo time, and there were attempts to push it lower in Europe and New York, but selling momentum was weak and it was pushed back. It continued to move without a sense of direction, and in the end it ended up being in an extremely narrow range all day.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| Price Fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
The market has digested the previous day's policy interest rate announcement and is lacking in new information, resulting in a lack of direction.
While attention continues to be focused on the outlook for interest rate cuts in the United States and comments from senior Federal Reserve officials, the Bank of Japan is maintaining its accommodative stance.
Concerns about currency intervention remain, and the market continues to trade within a range, waiting for indicators and comments.
Expected range
We expect the price to move in a range with the lower limit around 147.20 and the upper limit around 148.80.
It may fluctuate temporarily up and down depending on fluctuations in U.S. interest rates and U.S. Treasury yields.
During Asian trading hours, the price is likely to remain in a narrow range, centered around 148 yen.
tactics
The basic strategy is to focus on range rotation, with the focus on buying on dips in the low 147 yen range and selling on rallies in the high 148 yen range.
As there is little new information in the short term, a strategy targeting small price ranges is appropriate.
It is safe to keep positions light with an eye on US economic indicators later in the week.
trigger
The indicator for an upward breakout would be a clear movement above 149.00.
If it breaks below 147.00, selling pressure is likely to increase.
US indicators released between European time and New York time will be the factor that will drive short-term fluctuations.
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks above 148.80 and settles there, the range assumption will be negated and the market will move towards testing the upper limit.
If the price continues to fall below 147.00, the range scenario will also collapse.
If a sudden intervention report is issued, the scenario itself will be invalidated.
Risk Event
US economic indicators (housing, consumer confidence, etc.).
Remarks by a senior Federal Reserve official.
Foreign exchange-related comments and intervention suggestions from the Japanese government and Bank of Japan.
Position Management
Adjust the position size to be small, assuming range tactics.
Take profits early, aiming for around 20 to 30 pips.
Stop losses are set when the price clearly breaks through the most recent support or resistance level.
Checklist
Check fluctuations in US interest rates and bond yields.
Check the statements made by Bank of Japan and government officials.
Risk management in preparation for the release of US economic indicators in New York time.
Market Summary
The previous day saw no signs of consolidation, and selling was dominant throughout the day.
Expectations of a US interest rate cut and comments from senior Fed officials remain a focus of attention
Expectations for further ECB easing have receded, and differences in policy stance are affecting the market.
Expected range
The lower limit is expected to be around 1.1700, and the upper limit is expected to be around 1.1825.
The 1.1730 area is being considered, but no clear support has been established.
In the short term, fluctuations may widen depending on movements in US interest rates and the dollar index.
tactics
Currently, the main response is to sell on pullbacks, with an awareness of the heavy upside.
There is room to consider a sell entry if the price rebounds around 1.1800.
Due to the lack of support, try to take profits early after entering.
trigger
A breakout above 1.1830 could change the trend.
If the price breaks below 1.1700, selling pressure is expected to intensify.
Economic indicators during European hours and US indicators during New York hours provide short-term momentum.
Nullification Conditions
If the price breaks above 1.1830 and settles there, the sell-on-rebound strategy will be negated.
If the price does not attempt to break below 1.1700 and a stable bottom formation is confirmed, the scenario will collapse.
Sudden policy statements and intrusive comments invalidate assumptions
Risk Event
Eurozone PMI flash figures and inflation-related indicators
Fed officials' comments and US housing-related indicators
Comments from government officials suggesting currency intervention and policy responses
Position Management
Keep position sizes small to limit risk
Profit target is set at around 20-30 pips and confirmed early.
Stop loss is set when the expected range is clearly exceeded.
Checklist
Keep an eye on whether it will break below 1.1700
Check out what the ECB and Fed said
Check US interest rate trends and the direction of the dollar index
Market Summary
There was no downward consolidation on the previous day, and selling was dominant throughout the day.
US interest rate cut expectations and Fed comments support the dollar
UK inflation remains sticky and the Bank of England is cautious
Expected range
Expected to range around 1.3450–1.3600
The target on the downside is around 1.3450, and the target on the upside is around 1.3600
Asian trading hours: Expected to consolidate around 1.3500
tactics
The basic strategy is short-term rotation based on selling on rebounds
Consider selling lightly on a pullback around 1.3580–1.3600
When the price falls, look for a reaction at 1.3460-1.3450 and buy back lightly.
trigger
If it breaks above 1.3610, beware of a buying reversal.
If the price breaks below 1.3450, beware of downward momentum
European indexes and early New York interest rate trends are the starting point for the short term
Nullification Conditions
If it settles above 1.3610 and continues to hit new highs
If the price does not fall below 1.3450 and a clear rise in the lows becomes apparent
When policy statements or intervention suggestions cause sudden changes in liquidity
Risk Event
UK PMI, employment results and fiscal policy headlines
FRB officials' comments and US housing and consumption indicators
Fluctuations in UK long-term interest rates and worsening supply and demand for government bonds
Position Management
Transaction sizes limited to 50-70% of normal levels
Profit is approximately 20 to 35 pips. Stop loss is executed automatically when the trigger is exceeded.
Prioritize hedging existing positions before and after announcements, avoiding new positions
Checklist
The battle for 1.3450 and whether it will break above 1.3610
Direction of UK long-term interest rates and US bond yields
Major indicators and speeches scheduled for European time
Market Summary
The previous day saw no consolidation, and selling was dominant throughout the day, limiting the recovery.
The RBA maintains a cautious stance while confirming that inflation is slowing. The US expects a rate cut depending on the data, and the dollar remains relatively firm.
Fluctuations in the Chinese economy and resource prices are likely to affect sentiment
Expected range
Expected to trade in a range centered around 0.6540–0.6680
On the downside, be aware of the area around 0.6540. On the upside, be aware of the area around 0.6680–0.6700 as a wall.
Asian trading hours: expected to trade in a range around 0.6600
tactics
The basic approach is to steadily respond in the short term based on range rotation
Combined buying on dips based on the reaction of 0.6550–0.6540 and selling on rallies of 0.6680–0.6700
Keep positions light before and after events and avoid chasing in one direction
trigger
If it breaks above 0.6700, beware of accelerating buybacks
If the price breaks below 0.6540, be aware of the risk of continued downward pressure
Australian headlines, Chinese indicators, and US interest rate movements during New York time are the starting point for the short term
Nullification Conditions
If the price settles above 0.6700 and continues to hit new highs, the assumption of a sell-off on a rebound will collapse.
If the price does not fall below 0.6540 and a clear rise in the lows is apparent, the downward bias will recede.
If volatility suddenly changes due to unexpected policy statements or suggestions for intervention, the scenario will be reset to scratch.
Risk Event
RBA dignitaries' statements and minutes
China PMI, real estate news and iron ore prices
US housing indicators and comments from Fed officials
Position Management
Transaction sizes limited to 50-70% of normal levels
Take profits in stages, aiming for 15 to 30 pips
Stop losses are mechanically implemented when the trigger is exceeded to prevent deterioration of average costs
Checklist
The battle for 0.6540 and whether it will break above 0.6700
China Index and Iron Ore Futures Direction
US interest rates and dollar index trends
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
Following the US FOMC meeting last week, there was a lack of new material, and although Tokyo slightly updated the previous day's high, selling from Europe prevailed, and the market generally fluctuated within a narrow range.
summary
The direction of the market was limited as investors waited for US interest rates and comments from Fed officials, while the Japanese side was conscious of the Bank of Japan's stance and expectations of intervention.
The upper limit was heavy in the lower 148 yen range, and the lower limit was searching for a support in the upper 147 yen range.
Today's price movements
After hitting a slightly higher high during Tokyo hours, selling prevailed as the market entered Europe.
During New York time, there was little movement as investors waited for indicators, and the price range during the day was limited.
Background/materials
Opinions were mixed regarding the path of interest rate cuts after the FOMC meeting, and the exchange rate moved in tandem with small fluctuations in US interest rates.
Japan continued to expect policy to remain unchanged and remained wary of headlines about government statements.
There was a lack of external shocks, and the mood of waiting for an event contributed to maintaining the range.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The price has returned to around 148.20, making it easy to sell, and there are still indications of a pullback near 147.70.
The short-term moving average was flat, and the oscillator was moving in the neutral zone.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The price failed to clearly surpass the resistance in the mid-148 yen range, and the daily chart failed to test the upper limit of the range.
The support band of the mid-147 yen range was maintained, and the balance between the upside and the downside remained balanced.
Impressions
Despite the news, position adjustments were the main focus, and exploratory buying and selling appeared to be dominant.
Combined with the decline in liquidity before the event, it was difficult to make price movements.
Trading Impressions
A strategy of focusing on limit orders and making small increments was effective, and it was safe to set a shallow price range for contrarian trading.
Stop losses were limited to the outside of the most recent highs and lows, and position sizes were managed conservatively.
Checklist
Check out the schedule for US interest rates and key speeches
Beware of headlines about official statements and intervention
Reexamining liquidity in Asia, Europe, and New York time zones
Looking back
Buying came in from Europe and the market was temporarily depressed in New York, but buying became dominant again and the market closed slightly above the previous day's high.
summary
With limited clues after the FOMC meeting last week, the mood remains one of waiting for US interest rates and statements from Fed officials
Comments from ECB officials and the strength of European indicators are seen as supporting the euro
The daily price range was relatively small, making it difficult to determine the market direction.
Today's price movements
During European trading hours, bargain hunting became dominant and attempts to recover continued.
In the early New York market, there was some selling due to a small rebound in interest rates, but buying then became dominant.
The closing price remained in the high range and ended slightly above the previous day's high.
Background/materials
In the US, there are mixed views on the interest rate cut path after the FOMC meeting, and the exchange rate reacts to small fluctuations in US interest rates
In the eurozone, official comments and economic sentiment-related headlines are seen as supporting the euro
Aggressive positioning was limited ahead of the major event
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The 1.18 level was seen as a benchmark for recovery and became a turning point for the upside.
The upper 1.17 range was seen as a possible short-term support point.
The short-term moving average was flat and the oscillator remained in the neutral zone.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the price continues to move within a range, and the direction is still unclear.
The price will continue to move within the recent high and low range, and volume and stability are needed to confirm a breakout.
On a weekly basis, the balance was maintained with selling on rallies and buying on dips competing against each other.
Impressions
Flow-driven fluctuations were prominent amid the wait for events, with short-term investors taking center stage
The tone of the stock changes easily depending on whether or not there is a headline, and fluctuations are kept in check by the strength of actual demand.
It was difficult for the market to move in one direction, and buying prevailed towards the close.
Trading Impressions
It was a day when contrarian short-term trading centered on limit orders was effective.
It was effective to take profits at shallow intervals and limit stop losses to just outside the nearest milestone.
Position size was kept in check and new positions were made with caution around the interest rate headline.
Checklist
Check the next business day's key indicators and schedule of key remarks
Check the order book situation around 1.18 and the impact of options
Reconfirming the strength of correlation between time-of-day fluctuations in US interest rates
Looking back
With a lack of new news, sluggish US interest rates kept the dollar's upside in check, but buying from Europe helped it recover. Although it was temporarily depressed in New York, buying again became dominant and it closed slightly higher.
summary
While the UK's inflation was stubborn and the Bank of England was expected to keep the rate unchanged, the market was awaiting comments from US officials and was therefore limited in its proactive stance.
Fiscal headlines remain a cause for caution, while sluggish dollar growth has supported the pound
The price remained within a range throughout the day, but maintained a recovery trend towards the end of the day.
Today's price movements
Buying dominated during European trading hours, with the price recovering to around 1.3500.
In the early New York trading session, the market was pushed down by a small rebound in interest rates, but the downside was limited and buying back progressed again.
The intraday range was roughly 1.3450–1.3520, and remained in the high range towards the end of the day.
Background/materials
After the FOMC meeting last week, US interest rates remained in a state of slight fluctuation, and the currency market remained in a waiting mood.
In the UK, expectations of early, significant easing have receded due to concerns about high inflation and the Bank of England's cautious stance.
Concerns over fiscal and long-term interest rate trends held down the upside, while actual demand buying supported the downside.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The area around 1.3520 was seen as resistance on the upside, with around 1.3450 being the target for support.
1.3500 acted as a short-term pivot point, making it easy for up and down movements to occur.
The short-term moving average was flat and the oscillator was mainly in the neutral zone.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The price continues to move within the wide range of 1.3400–1.3600, fluctuating between the upper and lower limits.
The daily high point has not risen much and a clear trend has not yet been formed.
Unless there is confirmation of a breakout from the range accompanied by an increase in trading volume, it is considered appropriate to evaluate the price within the range.
Impressions
In a flow-driven market, a wait-and-see attitude was evident, and price movements were sluggish while waiting for statements from key figures.
Although the market was led by buybacks, it was difficult to move in one direction, and the market conditions were similar to those before an event.
Trading Impressions
Rotating the range around limit orders was effective, and taking profits at shallow intervals worked well.
Stop losses were limited to the outside of the nearest milestones, such as above 1.3520 or below 1.3450, and the size was kept small.
Checklist
Reconfirm the next business day's major US and UK indicators and the times of key speeches
Check the order book around 1.3500 and option related expiration dates and strikes
Examining the direction and strength of correlation between UK long-term interest rates and US interest rates
Looking back
After hitting a new low in Tokyo, the market saw some downward pressure in Europe and New York, but momentum was weak and the market remained in a narrow range throughout the day.
summary
Following the FOMC meeting last week, US interest rates only fluctuated slightly, and the strength or weakness of the dollar was unclear, leaving the Australian dollar lacking direction.
No positive trend formation was observed due to the RBA's cautious stance and the continued wait for a clear picture of the Chinese economy and resource prices.
The recovery was slow, and the sudden selling did not continue, making it a day dominated by movement.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the price fell below the previous day's low, leading to a downward push, but follow-up was limited.
Every time the price tried to move lower in Europe and New York, it rebounded and the price range narrowed to around 0.66.
Flows varied depending on the time of day, making it difficult for the market to move in one direction.
Background/materials
With US interest rates lacking direction amid statements by key figures and indicators, the dollar has tended to stagnate.
The RBA's stance was cautious, with investors waiting for confirmation of Australian indicators and little new information.
The market was prone to sentiment being influenced by headlines related to China and iron ore prices.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The area around 0.6600 was considered a pivot point, and upwards, around 0.6620, pullback selling was likely to occur.
On the downside, there were observations of a pullback around 0.6580, and even if it broke through, the follow-up was slow and it was easy for a rebound to occur.
Short-term oscillators were in the neutral zone and trend indicators were flat.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
On the daily chart, the recovery high was cut down, but the support band in the upper 0.65 range was in focus, and the range was strong.
The moving average has flattened, and the direction remains unclear.
A clear breakout was determined when the closing price was established and volume was high.
Impressions
The lack of material and the wait for events combined to make it difficult to make a range of prices, and the headline movements were noticeable.
The impression was that arbitrage and actual demand flows came in intermittently, suppressing fluctuations and preventing trend formation.
Trading Impressions
A range rotation strategy based on contrarian trading was effective, and shallow profit taking was effective.
Stops were limited to the outside of the most recent swing and the size was kept to about 50-70% of normal.
Aiming for a breakout, the conditions were clarified in advance and entry was made with emphasis on time and liquidity.
Checklist
US interest rate fluctuations by time of day and direction of the dollar index
RBA key figures' comments and Australian index schedule
China-related headlines and iron ore futures trends
FX Journal