Market Summary

Although the price reached a new high during Tokyo time the previous day, selling from Europe was dominant and the pullback was shallow.

With Japan closed today and liquidity limited, the market will remain in an environment where overseas investors are likely to lead the way.

Expectations of a US interest rate cut, the Bank of Japan's policy stance, and uncertainty surrounding the party leadership election continue to be factors in mind.

Expected range

We expect the price to fluctuate around 146.70 to 148.20.

On the upside, the 148.20 level is likely to be seen as a resistance zone.

On the downside, support is seen around 146.70.

tactics

In situations where liquidity is likely to decrease, range rotation is the basic strategy.

In the short term, we will respond in small increments while assessing the direction of overseas times.

Avoid building unreasonable positions and check the range of adjustment before making a move.

trigger

If it clearly breaks above 148.20, watch out for the possibility of an attempt to move higher.

If it breaks below 146.70, the trend will likely shift to yen buying.

Fluctuations may intensify depending on the timing of the US PMI and statements by key Federal Reserve officials.

Nullification Conditions

If there is a strong rise above 148.50, it will negate the upper limit of the expected range.

If the decline continues below 146.40, we will have no choice but to revise our downside expectations.

If the holding period continues for a long time and there is extremely little sense of direction, a review of tactics is also necessary.

Risk Event

Key economic indicators include the US services PMI and durable goods orders.

Remarks by Federal Reserve officials suggest a revision to monetary policy stance.

News coverage related to Japan's party leadership election and speculation about currency intervention.

Position Management

Prioritize risk management by keeping position sizes to about half of normal sizes.

Take profits in small increments, aiming for 10 to 20 pips.

Stop losses should be set only at levels outside the expected range.

Checklist

As Japan is closed, we will check the price movements led by European and US trading hours.

Be sure to check the release times of US economic indicators and the market reaction.

The levels of the resistance band and support band will be organized in advance and handled accordingly.

Market Summary

Buying was dominant the previous day and the euro recovered, but it cannot be said that the bottom has been consolidated and instability remains

In the US, speculation over the timing of interest rate cuts continues to be mixed, making it difficult to determine the direction of the dollar.

While the ECB is showing a stance of maintaining the status quo, it is easy to sense the weakness of European consumer sentiment.

Expected range

Expect price movements to be around 1.1640-1.1800

On the upside, the area around 1.1800 is likely to be seen as a resistance zone.

On the downside, support will be confirmed around 1.1640.

tactics

In the short term, focus on range rotation

Prioritize taking profits in line with small price movements around 1.1700

Refrain from building unreasonable positions as the direction is unclear

trigger

If the price clearly breaks above 1.1800, buying back is likely to intensify.

If it breaks below 1.1640, the euro will likely be sold.

Attention is needed to the release times of US PMI and durable goods orders

Nullification Conditions

If the strong rise continues above 1.1820, we will reject the assumption of the upper limit of the range.

If the decline below 1.1620 continues, revisions to downside expectations will be necessary.

If cross-shareholding continues for a long time and trading volume drops dramatically, a review of tactics is also necessary.

Risk Event

US economic indicators and statements by Fed officials

Data on Eurozone consumption trends and comments from ECB officials

News reports on US tariff policy and risk-averse market reaction

Position Management

Respond cautiously by limiting position size to about half of normal size

Take profits in small increments, aiming for 15 to 25 pips

Set stop loss only at a level outside the expected range

Checklist

Check whether the price movement around 1.1700 will continue

Be sure to check the time of US economic indicator releases and the market reaction

Prepare and respond to resistance and support levels in advance

Market Summary

Buying was dominant on the previous day, and the pound recovered, but it cannot be said that the bottom has been solidified and instability remains.

High UK inflation and rising public borrowing are causing market concerns

Speculation over when the US will cut interest rates and comments from Fed officials are influencing the direction of the dollar.

Expected range

The base scenario is for the price to move around 1.3350-1.3600.

On the upside, the resistance zone is expected to be around 1.3600 to 1.3670.

On the downside, the support zone around 1.3350 is attracting attention.

tactics

Since it is difficult to determine the direction, we base our strategy on range rotation.

Consider selling on pullbacks near resistance zones and buying on dips near support zones

Be prepared to change course flexibly in case of a breakout from the range.

trigger

A clear break above 1.3670 will likely lead to stronger buying.

If it breaks below 1.3350, the selling trend will likely become dominant.

Attention is likely to be focused on US economic indicators and UK policy announcements

Nullification Conditions

If the price continues to rise above 1.3700, we will reject the assumption of the upper limit of the range.

If a break below 1.3300 is confirmed, we will need to revise our assumptions of support on the downside.

If the number of market participants decreases and trading volume drops dramatically, the accuracy of forecasts will decrease.

Risk Event

UK inflation statistics and fiscal situation announcements

Major indicators such as US service industry PMI and durable goods orders

Changes in policy stance due to statements by FRB and Bank of England officials

Position Management

Respond cautiously by reducing position size more than usual

Take profits in small increments, aiming for 15 to 25 pips

Set stop losses at a limited level outside the expected range

Checklist

Be sure to check the release schedules for major economic indicators

Organize the resistance and support band levels in advance

Have a plan in place for when you go out of range

Market Summary

The previous day saw a very narrow range and continued lack of direction.

Australia's inflation is calming somewhat, while the labour market is lackluster

In the US, speculation over when interest rates will be lowered is spreading, and the direction of the dollar remains uncertain.

Expected range

We expect the price to move around 0.6530 to 0.6700.

On the upside, the area around 0.6700 is likely to be seen as a resistance zone.

On the downside, the support zone around 0.6530 is attracting attention.

tactics

Use range rotation as the basis until you get a sense of direction

Consider selling on pullbacks at resistance points and consider buying on dips at support points.

If a break is confirmed, take a trend-following stance.

trigger

If it clearly breaks above 0.6700, buying back is likely to intensify.

If it breaks below 0.6530, selling pressure is likely to prevail.

US economic data and Australian news could trigger volatility

Nullification Conditions

If the strong rise above 0.6720 continues, it will negate the assumption of the upper limit of the range.

If a decline below 0.6500 is confirmed, we will need to revise our downside expectations.

When trading volume drops dramatically and price movement is weak, the accuracy of tactics decreases.

Risk Event

Release of key indicators including US services PMI and durable goods orders

Changes in monetary policy stance due to comments by Fed officials

Impact of changes in the Chinese economy and commodity prices

Position Management

Keep position sizes smaller than usual and respond cautiously

Take profits in small increments, aiming for 15 to 25 pips

Set stop loss only at a level outside the expected range

Checklist

Organize the upper and lower limits of the range in advance

Be sure to check the time of US economic indicator releases

Be careful not to overlook the impact of related news from Australia and China.

Looking back

Selling was dominant in Europe, but the market recovered briefly in New York, but selling resumed in the second half, resulting in a day with a strong range throughout.

summary

The market is sluggish just below 148 yen, making it prone to sell-offs.

Buying in the latter half of 147 yen slowed the downward pressure

Waiting to see what happens before the event is strong, and waiting for confirmation of the break

Today's price movements

The European market remains weak in the early stages as dollar selling prevails.

After entering NY, there was a buying spree and a temporary rebound

In the second half of the New York market, prices were once again heavy and the pursuit of higher prices stalled.

Background/materials

US interest rates are struggling to move higher as weak US PMI figures are expected

Fed officials' cautious stance limits aggressive dollar buying

Domestically, caution regarding intervention observations remains a concern

Technical Memo (Short Term)

There is a strong sense of sell-off around 148.00

Support remains around 147.50

On the 5-minute to 1-hour chart, selling on rallies and buying on dips are intertwined.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The daily chart continues to be in a range, with limited directionality.

Reactions near the 4-hour EMA are considered a turning point

Be cautious about breaking out above 148.20 until it is confirmed to have settled above 148.20

Impressions

There is an impression that the price movements are short-lived due to the balance between material and technical data.

Before an event, the position tends to become lighter and hair tends to appear.

Emphasis on reaction speed while suppressing price fluctuation expectations

Trading Impressions

It seems that switching between short-term selling on rallies and buying on dips works better than waiting for a breakout.

Pay attention to spreads and slippage before and after indicators and limit the number of entries

Shallow profit taking reduces the risk of unexecuted orders

Checklist

Reconfirming the time and forecast for Tokyo CPI and US PCE

Observe the volume and the appearance of shadows as the price battles between 148.00 and 147.50

Check execution methods and limit order placement before the news breaks

Looking back

The index remained in a narrow range of around 1.18, taking into account the mixed Eurozone PMI and the weak US PMI.

summary

The factors are the dollar's heavy upside and the euro's sluggish growth, which are offsetting each other.

A wait-and-see attitude prevails ahead of U.S. inflation data later in the week

The sense of direction is limited and mainly consists of short waves coming in and out.

Today's price movements

Tokyo opens with a slight increase over the previous day's high

In Europe, trading continues while investors wait for indicators, and price ranges gradually narrow

In the second half of the New York period, there was some buying back, but the price remained within the range.

Background/materials

Eurozone PMIs are generally mixed, with Germany stronger and France weaker

US PMI slows from last month, with interest rates leading the way and weighing on the dollar's upside

VIPs' statements tend to be cautious, and active follow-up is limited

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The upper limit is expected to return to 1.1820-1.1840, with a selling mindset

The downside is expected to be around 1.1780

A mix of rebounds and stalls around the short-term EMA

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The daily chart continues to be in a box color of 1.18±

Momentum leans towards neutral after correction from September highs

Impressions

The initial movement immediately after the index is released is unlikely to continue and is likely to return to normal.

During periods of low price, shadows tend to appear and it is difficult to track the price.

Trading Impressions

It seems that contrarian trading within the range and taking shallow profits are more effective than waiting for a breakout.

Before and after the event, reduce the lot size and number of transactions to take into consideration slippage.

Limit orders ensure a margin of resistance to spreads that tend to widen

Checklist

Reviewing the time and forecast for major indicators such as US PCE

Observe the ticks as the 1.1820 and 1.1780 levels battle

Check execution methods and order placement in advance

Looking back

While factoring in the slowdown in the UK PMI and the weakness in the US PMI, the downward pressure immediately after the index was limited and remained around 1.35 throughout the day.

summary

The interest rate-led factors offset each other, leaving little sense of direction.

Position adjustments continued before the event, resulting in many short waves.

Today's price movements

In Europe, selling took the lead after the UK PMI, temporarily pushing prices down

In New York, there was a buying spree, but the price remained sluggish and fluctuated slightly.

Background/materials

UK PMI slows from previous month, raising speculation of slowing growth

US PMI also weak, weighing on the dollar's upside and triggering a rebound

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The 4-hour EMA catches up with the price, and selling on rallies and buying on dips intersect.

Above: Selling intention at the latter half of 1.35 Below: Buying intention at the latter half of 1.34

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The daily chart continues to be in a range-based trading position

Even after the correction from the September high, the mid-term trend is still being determined

Impressions

The initial movement immediately after the indicator was released was not sustained and the reversal was quick.

During periods of low trading volume, shadows tend to appear and it is difficult to follow them.

Trading Impressions

It seems that contrarian trading within the range and shallow profit taking are more effective than waiting for a breakout.

Before and after the indicator, reduce the lot size and frequency to prepare for slippage

Checklist

Reconfirm major indicator release times and forecasts

Observe the reaction to the 1.35 mark and the latter half of 1.34 on a tick-by-tick basis

Check spreads and execution methods before entering

Looking back

The index is trading in a narrow range of 0.6580–0.6620, factoring in the weak US PMI and the slowdown in the Australian PMI.

summary

The factors are the dollar's heavy upside and Australia's sluggish growth, which are offsetting each other.

A wait-and-see approach ahead of the event means price movements are limited

The direction is still to be determined and the waves are mainly short.

Today's price movements

After entering Europe, buying occurred and the price rose to around the 4-hour EMA.

Selling on the rebound became dominant towards New York, slowing the upside

Finally, it closed around 0.6600 and continued to move slightly

Background/materials

US PMI data slows from last month, US interest rates appear to be plateauing

Australia PMI shows manufacturing and services slowing, limiting AUD growth

Improving Eurozone PMIs and Country Differences Neutralize Risk Tolerance

Technical Memo (Short Term)

On the upside, the target for selling on a rebound is around 0.6620.

The downside is expected to be around 0.6580

The 5-minute to 1-hour chart tends to continue moving around the EMA

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

0.658–0.666 box awareness continues

The trend is sluggish as the battle continues near the 20-day moving average

Momentum neutral after correction from September highs

Impressions

Immediately after the indicator, the trend is unlikely to continue and the reversal appears to be quick.

During periods of low liquidity, shadows tend to appear and it is difficult to follow.

Trading Impressions

It seems that contrarian trading within the range and shallow profit taking are more effective than aiming for a breakout.

Before and after the event, reduce the lot size and number of transactions to prepare for slippage.

Limit orders should be set at a position that can withstand widening spreads

Checklist

Check the battle between 0.6620 and 0.6580 and the volume

Recheck the timing and forecast of key indicators

Check execution method and slippage settings in advance