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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | ★★ | Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★★ | April-June Quarter Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP, final figures) [Annualized rate of change from previous quarter] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | April-June Quarterly GDP Personal Consumption (Annualized Rate) |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | April-June Quarter Core PCE Final Value [Annualized Rate of Change from Previous Quarter] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | August Durable Goods Orders [Month-on-Month] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | August Durable Goods Orders (Excluding Transportation Equipment) [MoM] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Initial unemployment claims last week |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | Number of people continuing to receive unemployment insurance from the previous week |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | August Existing Home Sales [Annualized] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇺🇸 America | ★ | August Existing Home Sales [Month-on-Month] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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* We have selected indicators with high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
Despite some Bank of Japan committee members mentioning future interest rate hikes and a plan to reduce ETFs, dollar buying prevailed amid wavering expectations of a US interest rate cut, and there was concern about the approaching psychological milestone of 149 yen. Dollar buying was dominant throughout the day the previous day, and it will be interesting to see whether this trend will continue.
The dollar was predominantly bought throughout the day the previous day, and we will be watching to see how long this trend will continue. From a technical perspective, it appears that the lower limit has been solidified, and it can be said that this is a situation where buying on dips is in the cards.
GBP/USD was supported by the Bank of England's cautious stance on interest rate cuts. In the US, comments from a senior Fed official shook expectations of a rate cut, and dollar buying continued to dominate. Relative interest rate differentials and the strength of economic indicators continue to influence the direction of the pair. Dollar buying was dominant throughout the day yesterday, and it will be interesting to see how long this trend will continue.
For AUD/USD, Australian CPI exceeded expectations, raising concerns about continued inflation, which helped support the Australian dollar as expectations of an RBA interest rate cut receded. Meanwhile, in the US, comments from a senior Fed official shook expectations of a rate cut, and dollar buying continued to dominate. Technically, there is a movement to view the 0.6580 level as support on the downside, and it appears that the bottom has consolidated, suggesting there is room for a rebound. Dollar buying was dominant the previous day, and it will be interesting to see how long this momentum will continue.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
Although the market continued to adjust until European trading hours, expectations of a rate cut receded somewhat after US economic indicators came in better than expected. In response, dollar buying prevailed and the yen was sold widely. After the indicators were released, the exchange rate briefly rose to the high 149 yen range, breaking out of the range following the shock of the August employment statistics.
The market continued to adjust and fluctuated little until European trading time, but the economic indicators released in the US came in better than expected, and expectations of a rate cut receded, leading to dollar buying becoming dominant. This led to a sudden sell-off of the euro, pushing it down to below the low to mid-1.17 level. Although there were times during the day when the euro tested the upper limit, the rise was limited, and the trend of a stronger dollar against the backdrop of rising US interest rates became clear, resulting in a significant drop in trading.
Selling dominated the European market, and the market hit a new low from the previous day. In addition, economic indicators released in the US exceeded expectations, and expectations of an interest rate cut receded, which led to a sudden increase in dollar buying. This led to a rapid sell-off of the pound, which traded at a significant lower price.
Until European trading time, the exchange rate remained stable at around 0.6600, but the economic indicators released in the US came in better than expected, causing interest rate cut expectations to recede in the market. In response, dollar buying suddenly increased and the Australian dollar began to be sold. By the end of the day, the exchange rate had fallen to around 0.6530, breaking down significantly from its intraday high and ending trading with a significant drop.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| Price Fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
Despite reports of interest rate hikes by Bank of Japan committee members and a plan to reduce ETFs, expectations of a US interest rate cut are wavering, and dollar buying remains dominant with expectations of the pair approaching 149 yen.
The previous day saw dollar buying dominate throughout the day, and for the time being the focus is on the interplay between trends in US monetary policy and uncertainty about domestic policy.
Expected range
We expect the price to fluctuate around 147.80 to 149.50.
The 149 yen range is seen as resistance on the upside, while the upper 147 yen range is the target for the downside.
tactics
The basic stance is to focus on range rotation.
The market flexibly used buying on dips in the 148 yen range and selling on rallies in the 149 yen range.
trigger
Buybacks may accelerate if the price exceeds 149.50.
As the price fell below 147.80, selling became dominant.
Be wary of further fluctuations around the time US economic indicators are released.
Nullification Conditions
A clear break below 147.50 would negate the test scenario.
On the other hand, if it breaks through 150.00, the range tactic will be invalidated and we may move into a new phase.
Risk Event
Announcement of US GDP and PCE deflator.
Bank of Japan-related comments and outlook for next policy.
Geopolitical risks and sudden fluctuations in the stock market.
Position Management
Keep position size to about half of normal size.
The target profit target is set at 30 to 50 pips.
Be sure to take early action and aim for a stop loss of 20 to 30 pips.
Checklist
Check the trend of US interest rates and the degree of revision in interest rate cut expectations.
Understand market reactions to the Bank of Japan's policy stance and statements by important figures.
Carefully monitor reactions at key technical levels.
Market Summary
The euro/dollar is weighed down by a decline in German business confidence, but there are also mixed signals, including a recovery in the eurozone PMI.
Amid wavering expectations of a US interest rate cut, dollar buying prevailed, and the dollar was seen attempting to break below 1.1750.
Expected range
Expected price movements around 1.1700 to 1.1850
The battle around 1.1750 will continue, with the 1.1700 range being considered on the downside and the 1.1850 area acting as a resistance zone on the upside.
tactics
Basically, a stance centered on range rotation is adopted.
A flexible response is required, with dip buying in mind at the 1.1700 level and rallies selling around the 1.1850 level.
trigger
A scenario where buying is likely to intensify if the price exceeds 1.1860
Selling pressure could increase if price falls below 1.1700
Beware of fluctuations around the time of release of US economic indicators and European statistics
Nullification Conditions
A clear break below 1.1670 would negate the range strategy
Conversely, if it breaks through 1.1900, we will need to assume a new uptrend.
Risk Event
US PCE deflator and employment-related indicators
Eurozone inflation indicators and comments from ECB officials
Geopolitical risks and sudden fluctuations in the stock market
Position Management
Position size is limited to about half of normal size
The target profit target is 30 to 50 pips
Stop losses at 20-30 pips and act promptly
Checklist
Check the US interest rate trend and changes in interest rate cut expectations
Understanding market reactions to key eurozone indicators and ECB statements
Closely monitor price action at the technical levels of 1.1700 and 1.1850
Market Summary
The pound-dollar pair is weighed down by a decline in the UK PMI and fiscal concerns, while the Bank of England (BOE) officials' cautious stance on interest rate cuts is seen as a supporting factor.
In the US, cautious comments from senior Federal Reserve officials have shaken expectations of a rate cut, and dollar-buying remains dominant.
Expected range
Expected price movements around 1.3400-1.3550
The focus is on the battle around 1.3450, with support and resistance on the downside being key.
tactics
Adopt a flexible stance based on range rotation
Combine buying on dips in the lower price range and selling on rallies in the upper price range
trigger
A break above 1.3560 could signal stronger buying.
A break below 1.3400 will increase selling pressure
Be wary of fluctuations in the release times of US economic indicators and UK-related statistics
Nullification Conditions
A clear break below 1.3380 would negate the dip buying strategy.
On the other hand, if the price breaks through 1.3600, the range strategy will be invalidated and a new phase may emerge.
Risk Event
Publication of UK GDP and inflation-related indicators
Announcement of the US PCE deflator and employment statistics
Concerns over UK finances and government bond markets resurface
Position Management
Keep position size to about half of normal size
The target for profit taking is 30 to 50 pips, and prioritizing the securing of solid profits
Be sure to take early action and aim for a stop loss of 20 to 30 pips.
Checklist
Check the BOE's key figures' comments and changes in their cautious stance on interest rate cuts
Understand market reactions to Fed officials' statements and US interest rate movements
Closely monitor price action at key technical levels of 1.3400 and 1.3550
Market Summary
Australian CPI exceeded expectations, raising concerns about continued inflation and reducing expectations of an RBA interest rate cut.
In the US, comments from a senior Fed official shook expectations of a rate cut, leading to a continued dollar-buying trend.
Expected range
Expected price movements around 0.6550 to 0.6680
The price is expected to remain focused on the support area around 0.6580 and the resistance area just before 0.6700.
tactics
A stance based on buying on dips is effective
Consider buying in small lots as long as 0.6580 can be maintained, and be mindful of short-term profit taking at the upside.
trigger
A clear break above 0.6700 could accelerate buybacks
If it breaks below 0.6550, selling pressure will intensify.
Be wary of fluctuations around the release times of Australian economic indicators and major US data
Nullification Conditions
A clear break below 0.6520 would negate the dip buying strategy.
On the other hand, if the price breaks through 0.6720, the range strategy will be invalidated and a new situation will need to be considered.
Risk Event
Australian employment and retail sales figures released
Publication of the US PCE deflator and employment-related indicators
Changes in risk aversion due to resource prices and geopolitical factors
Position Management
Limit position size to about half of normal size
The target profit target is 30 to 40 pips
Be sure to take early action and set stop losses at 20-30 pips.
Checklist
Check Australian inflation trends and the RBA's policy stance
Understanding the market's pricing of US monetary policy
Watch for a reaction at the 0.6580 and 0.6700 technical levels
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
The adjustment continued until European trading hours, but dollar buying intensified following US indicators, causing the dollar to rise to the high 149 yen range.
summary
Strong US economic indicators have led to a slight decline in expectations of a rate cut, giving the dollar the upper hand.
The yen was sold off, breaking out of the range it had been in since the employment statistics shock in August.
The market continued to closely monitor US interest rate trends.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, the price continued to move little, mainly in the high 148 yen range.
The adjustment phase continued into European trading hours, but buying suddenly picked up after the US indicators.
Towards the end of the day, the yen was confirmed to remain high in the high 149 yen range.
Background/materials
U.S. economic indicators beat expectations, leading to a decline in interest rate cut expectations.
Rising US long-term interest rates helped support the dollar.
The lack of change in Japan's monetary policy also encouraged selling of the yen.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The 148.50 level was seen as a support point and provided short-term support.
149.50 to 149.80 was seen as an upper resistance level.
The short-term moving averages were pointing upwards, indicating a buying-dominated trend.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
It broke through the upper limit of the range since August, testing the potential for medium-term upside.
On the daily chart, the price has moved above 149.00, with the milestone of 150.00 in sight.
On the other hand, it is important to note that this is also a level at which yen buying back is likely to occur.
Impressions
It was a day in which the strength of US indicators was a major factor in moving the market.
The market remains sensitive to the direction of U.S. monetary policy and interest rate differentials.
The yen lacked any unique supporting factors and its movements continued to depend on the external environment.
Trading Impressions
During the sharp rise after the index, there was a move to buy on dips.
Volatility increased as short-term profit-taking selling and new buying intersected.
Stop orders following a breakout above the range helped to drive the rise.
Checklist
Whether it can break through the resistance zone of 149.50-150.00.
US interest rate trends and Fed comments.
Risk-off factors have led to renewed pressure to buy the yen.
Looking back
The European market was in a period of adjustment, but dollar buying increased in response to US indicators, and the euro closed significantly lower.
summary
US economic data beat expectations, reducing expectations of a rate cut.
The euro tested its upward momentum at times but was unable to sustain it.
Towards the end of the day, the dollar's upward trend prevailed, and the downward trend became clear.
Today's price movements
Until European trading time, the exchange rate fluctuated little, mainly in the high 1.17 range.
After the release of US data, dollar buying intensified and the dollar fell below 1.17.
The market continued to move at a lower level towards the end of trading.
Background/materials
Strong performance in key indicators, including revised US GDP figures, has reduced expectations of a rate cut.
Rising US long-term interest rates supported the dollar.
Economic concerns in the eurozone and fluctuating energy prices weighed on the euro.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The support line around 1.1720 was broken and downward pressure was felt.
The level around 1.1800 acted as a selling point and limited the upside.
The short-term moving average was pointing downward, suggesting a stronger dollar trend.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The 1.1650 area was closely watched as the next downside target.
The area around 1.1870 is seen as a medium-term resistance level.
On the daily chart, a downward trend prevailed, confirming a weak recovery.
Impressions
It was a day in which US indicators had a major influence on the direction of the market.
The euro lacked its own supporting factors and became increasingly dependent on external factors.
The market continues to closely monitor US monetary policy and interest rate differentials.
Trading Impressions
Short-term selling prevailed during the sharp drop following the index.
There were some occasional purchases aimed at a rebound, but they were pushed back.
Participants leaned towards short-term trading while placing emphasis on risk management.
Checklist
Will the support at 1.1650 hold?
US interest rate trends and comments from Federal Reserve officials.
the impact of eurozone economic indicators and inflation-related data;
Looking back
Selling prevailed in the European market, and dollar buying intensified after the US data, causing the pound to close significantly lower.
summary
Concerns about the UK's fiscal management and bond supply and demand kept the pound from rising.
US economic indicators exceeded expectations, strengthening the dollar.
As a result, the pound fell below the previous day's low, and a downward trend became clear.
Today's price movements
Selling intensified during European trading hours, causing the price to fall below 1.34.
After the release of US data, the decline accelerated, dropping to the low 1.33 range.
Towards the end of the day, the stock price continued to fluctuate in the low range and ended trading with a significant drop.
Background/materials
Concerns have spread about the UK's fiscal risks and the supply and demand of government bonds.
Strong performance of major indicators such as US GDP contributed to dollar buying.
Expectations of a widening interest rate gap supported the dollar's dominance.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The support around 1.3400 was broken, and there was some awareness of short-term downside potential.
The level around 1.3460 became a selling point for rebounds, limiting the upside.
The short-term moving average line was pointing downward, indicating a downward trend.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The 1.3300 area was seen as a medium-term support level.
The 1.3550-1.3600 range was seen as a resistance band during the recovery phase.
On a daily basis, the downward trend was dominant and a weak recovery was confirmed.
Impressions
It was a day in which the pound was sold off due to a combination of factors from Europe to the United States.
The strength of US indicators affected the entire foreign exchange market, highlighting the upward trend of the dollar.
The UK lacked any support of its own and its vulnerability against the dollar was notable.
Trading Impressions
Short-term selling prevailed during the downtrend following the index.
There were some attempts to buy back on the rebound, but the upside was heavy.
Selling accompanied by position adjustments fueled the decline.
Checklist
Will the 1.3300 support hold?
US interest rate trends and comments from Federal Reserve officials
UK fiscal policy and government bond market trends
Looking back
During European trading hours, the Australian dollar continued to adjust around 0.6600, but dollar buying intensified following US indicators, causing it to close significantly lower.
summary
US economic data beat expectations, reducing expectations of a rate cut.
The trend of buying dollars intensified, pushing the Australian dollar into selling.
The price fell from its intraday high and fell to around 0.6530 by the end of the day.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo time, the price continued to move slightly around 0.6600.
Adjustments continued into European trading hours, with limited direction.
It fell sharply after the US indicators and was pushed down to the 0.6520 range.
Background/materials
Indicators such as the revised U.S. GDP figures exceeded expectations, boosting the dollar.
Rising US long-term interest rates supported dollar buying.
Australian inflation data showed strength but was pushed back by the dollar-led trend.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The level around 0.6600 was seen as a level for selling on a pullback.
The area around 0.6530 was seen as a target for the lower end.
The short-term moving average line was pointing downward, indicating a downward trend.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The level around 0.6500 was closely watched as the next support level.
The area around 0.6670 is seen as a resistance zone for a rebound.
On the daily chart, a downward trend prevailed, confirming a weak recovery.
Impressions
It was a day in which the strength of US indicators influenced the entire foreign exchange market.
The Australian dollar lacked any support of its own and followed the dollar-led movement.
Resource prices and trends in the Chinese economy also continued to be influential factors.
Trading Impressions
Short-term selling prevailed during the sharp drop following the index.
There were attempts to buy on dips, but the upside was limited.
As volatility increased, the importance of risk management became a major consideration.
Checklist
Will the 0.6500 support hold?
US interest rate trends and Fed statements
Impact of Australian inflation indicators and resource prices
FX Journal