Market Summary

The dollar is being sold due to the suspension of US government agencies, and USDJPY is also trading weakly in the high 147 yen range.

Although the market is uncertain, it is searching for a sense of direction as the dominance of US interest rates and expectations of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan clash.

There are important economic indicators due out today, and depending on the results, there is a possibility that fluctuations will increase.

Expected range

The lower limit is expected to be around 147.20, while the upper limit is expected to be around 148.50.

Until the index is announced, the market is likely to move within a range.

Market participants are on high alert, so caution is needed against sudden price movements.

tactics

For the time being, we will base our strategy on range rotation and respond cautiously until a clear direction emerges.

While trying to buy on dips as the price approaches the lower end, prioritizing early profit taking.

When testing the upper limit, there will still be a sense of selling on pullbacks, so we will aim to respond flexibly in both directions.

trigger

Be careful of short-term upward pressure after breaking above 148.50.

If the exchange rate clearly falls below 147.20, there is a possibility that yen buying will take over.

US economic data due to be released tonight is expected to be a major turning point.

Nullification Conditions

If the price deviates significantly from the expected range, the strategy will be scrapped.

Even if there is a sudden fluctuation due to a fundamental factor, the initial assumptions will be invalid.

Fluctuations in price movements due to a decline in market liquidity are also a factor that clouds judgment.

Risk Event

Important US economic indicators released.

The US Congress's budget negotiations and the government's shutdown are prolonged.

Changes in statements and policy stance by Bank of Japan members.

Position Management

The entry size will be kept smaller than usual.

Take profits in small increments, aiming for 20 to 30 pips.

Place your stop loss outside the expected range to limit risk.

Checklist

We will be closely watching the downward battle around 147.20.

Keep in mind the resistance level around 148.50.

Check for short-term fluctuation risks due to the results of US economic indicators.

Market Summary

The dollar is being sold due to the suspension of US government agencies, and the EURUSD is moving slightly weaker.

The previous day saw a lack of direction, with prices remaining in a range centered around the lower to mid-1.17 range.

Markets are adopting a wait-and-see approach as they await the results of the indicators

Expected range

The downside is expected to be around 1.1680, and the upside is expected to be around 1.1820.

Until the index is released, the market tends to fluctuate within a range.

The price range is relatively limited, and trading tends to continue with a focus on the range.

tactics

Basically, focus on range rotation and consider short-term trading at the upper and lower limits

Pull the price to the lower end and buy on the dip, and when the price approaches the upper end, sell on the rebound in small amounts.

Keep positions light and limit risk until direction emerges

trigger

A clear break above 1.1820 could boost buying momentum in the short term

If the price falls below 1.1680, it is likely that selling of the euro will prevail rather than buying of the yen.

Tonight's US economic data results will be a turning point

Nullification Conditions

If a significant deviation from the expected range is observed, the strategy will be reviewed.

It is also invalid if the reliability of the range is lost due to a spike in price movements immediately after the announcement of an index.

When sudden news causes volatility to suddenly increase, initial assumptions no longer work.

Risk Event

US economic indicators released

Market sentiment worsens as government shutdown continues

ECB officials' comments and unexpected fluctuations in eurozone economic indicators

Position Management

Respond by keeping position sizes smaller than usual

Flexible profit target adjustment in increments of around 20 pips

Set stop loss outside the expected range to limit losses

Checklist

Keep an eye on the downside battle around 1.1680

Check for resistance near 1.1820

Be aware of the risk of continued dollar selling due to the results of US economic indicators

Market Summary

The US government shutdown has led to dollar selling, and GBP/USD is also trading slightly weaker.

The previous day's trading ended in a directionless range, centered around the lower to mid-1.34 range.

Markets await further clues ahead of U.S. economic data release

Expected range

The downside is expected to be around 1.3370, and the upside is expected to be around 1.3550.

Traffic tends to be concentrated within the range, making it difficult to determine a clear direction.

As the battle between the upper and lower limits continues, we want to keep an eye on short-term fluctuations.

tactics

Basically, trades are based on range rotation and check the reaction at the upper and lower limits.

Pull the price to the lower end and try buying on the dip, while being mindful of taking profits early.

Consider selling on pullbacks at the upside, and wait until a reversal is confirmed before taking action.

trigger

A break above 1.3550 is likely to strengthen short-term buying

If it breaks below 1.3370, selling pressure is likely to prevail

There is a possibility of sudden fluctuations in the release times of US economic indicators

Nullification Conditions

If the expected range is significantly deviated from, reconsider your original tactics.

It is also invalid if the reliability of the range is lost due to a sudden spike after the announcement of the indicator.

Predictions also go wrong when sudden fluctuations occur due to geopolitical risks or sudden statements by important figures.

Risk Event

Important US economic indicators released

The prolonged government shutdown and the outcome of budget negotiations

Impact of UK economic indicators and central bank comments on the pound

Position Management

Set your position size more conservatively than usual

The target for profit taking is 20 to 30 pips, and it responds in small increments.

Place stop losses outside the expected range to limit risk

Checklist

Keep an eye on the downside support around 1.3370

Check for resistance near 1.3550

Be aware of the risk of fluctuations due to the results of US economic indicators

Market Summary

Australian dollar buying prevailed as the Reserve Bank of Australia took a more hawkish stance in response to inflationary pressures.

In the US, dollar selling continued against the backdrop of a partial government shutdown, with the AUD/USD rate hovering around the 0.66 level.

The market is waiting for the release of US economic indicators to gauge the next direction.

Expected range

The downside is expected to be around 0.6550, and the upside is expected to be around 0.6700.

Before the announcement of the index, prices tend to remain within a range.

Market participants are keeping an eye on the upside and downside

tactics

The basic strategy is to rotate between ranges, and to mix short-term buying on dips and selling on rallies.

At the bottom, try buying on the dip in small lots after confirming a rebound.

Prioritize taking profits when the price approaches the upper limit, and consider selling after the price falls back.

trigger

If the price clearly breaks above 0.6700, the buying trend will likely intensify.

If it breaks below 0.6550, selling pressure is likely to prevail.

There is a possibility of sudden fluctuations around the time of the release of US economic indicators.

Nullification Conditions

If the expected range is significantly deviated from, the original tactics will be scrapped.

It is also invalid if support and resistance no longer function due to a sudden spike after the release of economic indicators.

When sudden news causes liquidity to decrease and price movements to become volatile, expectations are also wrong.

Risk Event

Important US economic indicators released

The impact of the prolonged government shutdown on market sentiment

Impact of Chinese economic indicators and resource price trends on the Australian dollar

Position Management

Keep position sizes small and manageable to avoid excessive risk

Take profits gradually, aiming for around 20 pips

Place stop losses outside the range to limit losses

Checklist

Keep an eye on support around 0.6550

Check for resistance near 0.6700

Be aware of the risk of sudden fluctuations during the release of US economic indicators

Looking back

Dollar selling led from Tokyo due to partial suspension of US government agencies and continued in Europe. New York was pushed down by weak ADP, but was reluctant to fall due to an upside in ISM.

summary

Due to uncertainty, the dollar's upside was heavy, and there were many periods when yen buying was dominant.

The indicators were mixed and it was difficult to see a clear trend.

In the short term, the market remained in a range as it awaited an event.

Today's price movements

The yen is mainly trading in the upper 146 yen to lower 148 yen range

Selling on rebounds dominated Tokyo, while Europe tended to cut back from highs, and buying in the second half of NY narrowed the decline.

At the close, the price fluctuated around 147 yen.

Background/materials

The suspension of U.S. government agencies raises awareness of the risk of statistical delays and policy uncertainty

ADP is weak, interest rate cuts are expected, and ISM is slightly higher

Expectations of a hawkish Bank of Japan stance and mixed domestic indicators were seen as factors supporting the yen.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The upper limit is around 148.20, and the lower limit is around 146.60.

The MA slope is small on the 5-minute to 1-hour chart, and selling on rallies and buying on dips intersect.

Beware of false breaks before and after the indicator

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

150.00 is likely to be perceived as a psychological milestone

We want to check the reaction at the nearest support band around 147.00

Above 148.50, there is room for confirmation of a recovery trend, but below 146.50, attention should be paid to the risk of continued adjustment

Impressions

Although the market was driven by information, it was difficult to determine the direction of the day due to short-term dominance.

Pay attention to headlines and spikes during periods of low liquidity

Trading Impressions

Based on the assumption of a range, take profits shallowly and secure unrealized gains in a short time

Immediately before and after the indicator, new orders are suppressed and stops are adjusted tightly.

When trading against the upper and lower limits, emphasis is placed on reaction confirmation and volume

Checklist

Reaction to potential pullbacks between 146.60 and 147.00

Selling pressure on rebound between 148.20 and 148.50

Check the timetable for US economic indicators and key figures' statements

Looking back

The US dollar was sold off due to the partial suspension of US government agencies, but the eurozone PMI fell below 50, limiting the upside. In New York, the ADP weakened and the ISM slightly rose, causing the market to fluctuate in a range.

summary

The market was a mixed bag of strengths and weaknesses, making it difficult to determine the direction of the market.

The weak dollar and concerns about the eurozone's economic outlook were at odds, making it difficult to follow the market conditions, either up or down.

In the short term, the mood of waiting for an event was strong, and the range-based trend continued.

Today's price movements

It generally fluctuated within the range of 1.171 to 1.178.

Tokyo rebounds on dollar selling, Europe held back by PMIs

NY rose in ADP, but buying back after ISM reduced the rise.

Background/materials

The partial shutdown of US government agencies has created uncertainty and the dollar has tended to weaken.

ADP fell short of expectations, and there were periods when dollar selling dominated.

The ISM rose slightly above the target, preventing the dollar from falling too sharply.

Eurozone manufacturing PMI again falls below 50, weighing on the euro's upside

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The upper limit should be in the upper 1.178 range to around 1.1800, and the lower limit should be around 1.171.

The MA is flat on the 5-minute to 1-hour chart, so be careful of false breaks.

For spikes immediately after an indicator, wait for a recovery after one cycle before considering entry

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

Above 1.1800, there is room for confirmation of a recovery trend, but below 1.1700, the view that adjustment will continue is likely to strengthen.

The inclination of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages is limited, so we want to focus on the range zone for the time being.

The 1.1850-1.1900 range is a sell-back pressure zone, and we want to check the pullback behavior in the 1.1650-1.1700 range.

Impressions

It was a day when multiple ingredients worked simultaneously, leaving plenty of room for discretion.

Although price fluctuations were observed, they lacked sustainability, and the speed with which profits were taken determined success or failure.

Trading Impressions

The basic approach is to rotate the bait within the range, waiting for a reaction near the upper and lower limits, and then chopping it into small pieces.

I want to limit new trades around the indicators, and keep the distance between stops and profit taking for existing positions short.

We would like to consider following the trend after the price breaks above 1.1800 and below 1.1700.

Checklist

The pullback behavior between 1.1700 and 1.1710 and the volume

Upward reaction and break of the upper 1.178s to 1.1800 range continues

Check the timetable for US indexes and key figures' comments and whether spreads will widen

Looking back

The US dollar is being sold in Tokyo due to the partial suspension of US government agencies, while the UK PMI falls below 50, weighing on the upside in Europe. The New York market is rising due to weak ADP, but is stagnating due to the ISM's upside.

summary

The weak dollar and weak UK economic sentiment are intertwined, limiting the direction of the market.

There were many periods when the market was difficult to follow, both up and down, and people tended to pass on the stock.

In the short term, there is a strong mood of waiting for an event, and the market will remain in a range.

Today's price movements

Generally fluctuating between 1.3440 and 1.3530

Tokyo sees selling spree, while Europe sees lower highs

NY rose after ADP, but was pushed down by buybacks after ISM, reducing the rise

Background/materials

The partial suspension of US government agencies has created policy uncertainty, making the dollar vulnerable to pressure

ADP falls short of expectations, creating a situation where dollar selling is likely to intensify

ISM slightly outperforms, limiting the tendency for the dollar to fall sharply

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The upper limit is around 1.3520 to 1.3550, which is a candidate for a pullback sell.

The initial target for the lower limit is around 1.3370 to 1.3400

Short-term MA is flat, so beware of false breakouts

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

Above 1.3600 is a rebound pressure zone, and 1.3300-1.3350 is a zone of strong supply and demand.

The inclination of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages is limited, so it is appropriate to consider the range for the time being.

Impressions

Multiple factors are acting simultaneously, giving short-term prospects an advantage

There were many price movements that lacked sustainability, and the flexibility to take profits was called into question.

Trading Impressions

The basic rule is to check the upper and lower limit reactions by rotating the range and then chop in small increments.

Hold back new trades just before and after the indicator and keep the stop tight

Checklist

The pullback behavior around 1.3400 and volume

Upward reaction and sustained break of 1.3520-1.3550

Timetable for US indexes and key figures' comments and whether spreads will widen

Looking back

Tokyo saw a recovery as Australian dollar selling took the lead but dollar selling was also taken into consideration due to the partial suspension of US government agencies. New York saw sluggish growth as ISM slightly exceeded expectations after ADP was weak and exceeded expectations.

summary

The material is mixed with strength and weakness, and the direction is limited

In the short term, there is a strong mood of waiting for an event, and the market will remain in a range.

Today's price movements

It has mostly fluctuated in a narrow range of 0.6590–0.6629.

Tokyo recovered from small movements around 0.6600, while New York saw mixed reaction after the index.

Background/materials

The dollar is weighed down by policy uncertainty due to the partial shutdown of US government agencies.

ADP fell short of expectations, creating a period of dollar selling.

ISM manufacturing shows slight upside, preventing excessive dollar depreciation

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The upper limit is around 0.6630 to 0.6650, which is a potential selling point.

The downside is seeing a pullback around 0.6590-0.6600

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

Recognize the range of 0.6550–0.6700 as the base line

Above 0.6700, there is room for confirmation of a recovery trend, but below 0.6550, attention should be paid to the risk of continued adjustment

Impressions

Market conditions are highly headline-dependent and require discretion

Even if price fluctuations occur, they are not sustainable, so the flexibility to take profits is important.

Trading Impressions

The basic approach is to wait for the upper and lower limit reactions by rotating the range and then chop in small increments.

Suppress new orders before and after the indicator and adjust stop tightly

Checklist

Reaction to the pullback around 0.6590 and volume

Selling pressure on the rebound to 0.6630-0.6650 and continued break

Timetable for US indexes and key figures' comments and whether spreads will widen