Market Summary

Partial US government shutdown postpones employment report, but ISM is scheduled, leaving limited clues

There is nothing new in the BOJ Governor's comments, leading to disappointment and yen selling

The previous day, the price failed to reach the lower limit, and there were signs of a double bottom forming on the 4-hour chart, so the lower limit is firm.

Expected range

Expected to move mainly around 147.20 to 148.70

The upper limit is around 148.50 to 148.70, which is an area where sell-offs are likely to occur.

Check whether there is a pullback near 147.20-147.30

tactics

Use range rotation while focusing on buying on dips

Pick up in parts near the lower limit and take partial profits when approaching the upper limit

When the upward trend accelerates, follow-up is limited to small amounts and short-term

trigger

Be wary of a situation where buying momentum is likely to strengthen if the price breaks above 148.30

If the price breaks 147.20, the short-term bullish scenario will recede and the market will be more likely to see a sell-off.

Pay attention to changes in US bond yields before and after the ISM announcement in New York time

Nullification Conditions

If it continues to stagnate between 147.70 and 148.20, expectations for a breakout will diminish.

If the price clearly breaks through the right shoulder of the double bottom, withdraw your prediction.

If trading volume declines and price range narrows, switch to wait-and-see mode.

Risk Event

Headlines about US interim budget negotiations and government shutdown extension

Sudden changes in U.S. Treasury yields and a risk-off shift in the stock market

Additional comments from Bank of Japan officials and reports mentioning foreign exchange

Position Management

Position sizes are capped at half of normal size and further reduced before the event

Take profits in stages, aiming for 20-30 pips

Stop loss is set at a level 10 to 15 pips outside the expected range.

Checklist

Check whether the price will break above 148.30 or below 147.20

ISM results and US interest rates are consistent

Check for Bank of Japan-related headlines and statements by important figures

Market Summary

The employment statistics have been postponed due to the US government shutdown, but the ISM is on schedule, and attention is focused on the data

The previous day saw a long upper and lower wicking pattern, which simultaneously indicated a firm bottom and a heavy top.

Amid a lack of direction, the index continues to hover around the low 1.17 range

Expected range

Expected to trade around 1.1680-1.1780

On the downside, support is likely to be seen around 1.1680.

There is strong resistance on the upside around 1.1780-1.1800.

tactics

Based on range rotation, combine buying on dips and selling on rallies

In the short term, be mindful of buying when the price breaks below 1.1700 and selling when it approaches 1.1780.

When a break occurs, follow-up should be small and short-term.

trigger

A break above 1.1800 is likely to strengthen the short-term upward trend

If the price breaks 1.1680, downward pressure is likely to be felt.

The results of the ISM, scheduled for New York time, could determine the direction.

Nullification Conditions

If the price continues to stagnate between 1.1720 and 1.1760 and there is little sense of direction, the scenario will be suspended.

If there are consecutive long frames with long upper and lower wicks, refrain from making trend judgments.

Range contraction accompanied by declining volume reduces expectations of a breakout

Risk Event

News reports related to the U.S. government shutdown and progress in interim budget negotiations

US economic indicators and statements by important figures, including the ISM announcement

European price data and comments from ECB officials

Position Management

Starts at half its normal size and shrinks further before the event

Take profits in installments of 20 to 30 pips

Set the stop loss at a level 10 to 15 pips outside the expected range.

Checklist

Confirm that the 1.1680-1.1780 range remains

Check the trend of US interest rates after the ISM announcement

Check for any reaction to ECB-related comments or indicators

Market Summary

A small body with long shadows on both the top and bottom, showing both a sticky downside and a heavy upside.

The employment statistics have been postponed due to the partial shutdown of US government agencies, but the ISM is on schedule and attracting a lot of attention.

The Bank of England Governor is scheduled to speak today, so speculation about the policy stance is likely to be taken into consideration.

Expected range

Expected to trade around 1.3420–1.3520

The downside is expected to react around 1.3420

Beware of the tendency for the upside to stagnate around 1.3520

tactics

Based on range rotation, consider buying on dips at the lower limit and selling on rallies at the upper limit

Before and after the event, reduce open positions and prioritize profit taking when price range narrows

When a break occurs, follow with a small amount and withdraw quickly when it stalls.

trigger

Be wary of buying-dominated flows after breaking above 1.3530

Breaking below 1.3400, strengthening preparations for a retest of the downside

The direction will be confirmed by the BOE Governor's remarks in European time and the ISM in New York time

Nullification Conditions

If the price remains stuck in the middle of the 1.3460–1.3490 range and the bora contracts, the tactical effectiveness will decrease.

A pattern where the upward trend stalls due to a series of upper shadows

The signal was not established due to a decline in trading volume and a weak reaction after the indicator.

Risk Event

Reports on US interim budget negotiations and extension of government shutdown

Bank of England key figures and UK macro surprises

Risk aversion due to sudden changes in US interest rates and stock markets

Position Management

The size starts at half the normal size and shrinks further just before the event.

Profit target is 20-30 pips in stages

Stop loss is set at a level 10-15 pips outside the expected range.

Checklist

Check whether the 1.3420–1.3520 range will be maintained or broken

BOE Governor's remarks and the direction of US and UK interest rates after the ISM

Ensure continuity of VIP headlines and flow

Market Summary

The Australian dollar was sold off the previous day due to fluctuations in US interest rates and resource prices, but there was a rebound at the lower end.

Expected range

Expected to trade in a range centered around 0.6460 to 0.6540

The upside is likely to be held down around 0.6525-0.6540, while the downside is likely to be supported around 0.6460.

tactics

It is effective to take small steps while switching between buying on dips and selling on rallies based on range rotation.

Aim to buy near the lower limit, and consider partial profit taking or selling on a rebound when approaching the upper limit

When a break occurs, follow carefully with small amounts

trigger

If it breaks above 0.6545, be aware that there is a possibility that the price will shift to a buying position.

A break below 0.6455 will raise concerns of a retest of the downside.

The ISM announcement in New York time could be the catalyst for a change in direction

Nullification Conditions

If the price continues to be trapped between 0.6480 and 0.6520, the range assumption will likely collapse.

The continuous appearance of long legs with upper and lower whiskers makes directional judgment unstable

If the volume decline and range compression continues, consider changing your tactics.

Risk Event

Progress in US government interim budget negotiations and reports of shutdown extension

ISM announcement and fluctuations in US interest rate-related indicators

Sudden fluctuations in Australian trade indicators and resource prices

Position Management

Position size is half of normal to ensure resistance to unexpected fluctuations

The target for profit taking is 20 to 30 pips.

Stop loss should be set carefully at a level 10 to 15 pips outside the range.

Checklist

Confirm that the range of 0.6460-0.6540 will be maintained

Keep a close eye on the ISM results and the direction of US interest rates

Check the reaction to changes in Australian indexes, resource prices and interest rate differentials

Looking back

During Tokyo hours, selling of the yen took the lead following comments from the Bank of Japan Governor, but there was little movement after European hours, and during New York hours, there was selling of the dollar due to weakness in the ISM, but the direction was limited.

summary

Although the price movements throughout the day reacted to the news, they did not lead to any major trends, and overall the market remained within a range.

Market participants were assessing the impact of the US indicators, but were seen refraining from taking new positions ahead of the weekend.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo trading hours, selling of the yen took the lead from around 147.80, but the rise was not sustained and stalled.

During New York time, the market fell to around 147.30 due to weakness in the ISM index, but then it hesitated to fall any further.

Background/materials

The Bank of Japan Governor's comments were seen as a reason to sell the yen, but there was no major change in policy stance and the sentiment lacked sustainability.

The US ISM results came in below expectations, causing a temporary sell-off in the dollar.

Concerns about the risk of a U.S. government shutdown also affected market sentiment, limiting the dollar's upside.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The 147.80 level was seen as a heavy upside.

Around 147.30 acted as support on the downside, confirming the formation of a range in the short term.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

On the daily chart, the price continues to fluctuate between 147.00 and 148.00.

The price continues to consolidate along the moving average line, and no clear medium-term trend has emerged.

Impressions

Although there was a temporary reaction to the event, no strong direction emerged.

There were several factors, but none of them seemed to be enough to form a sustained trend.

Trading Impressions

In the short term, buying and selling in response to information was effective, but the environment made it difficult to grow even if one followed suit.

It was a day in which the focus was on contrarian trading within a range and small price movements.

Checklist

It has been confirmed that the yen selling following the BOJ Governor's remarks was limited and unsustainable.

The weakness of the US ISM was only a temporary factor in selling the dollar.

Confirmed that the range of 147.30 to 147.80 is a short-term guideline

Looking back

During European trading hours, the euro was bought in response to the results of the eurozone PMI, and during New York trading hours, the dollar was sold due to weakness in the US ISM, but overall the direction was unclear.

summary

Some eurozone economic indicators fell short of expectations, but the euro was supported by a strong service sector.

The dollar was sold temporarily following the results of US indicators, but the market continued to move within a range without forming a clear trend.

Today's price movements

During European trading hours, the euro was bought around the 1.1700 level, and at times rose to around 1.1730.

During New York time, the dollar was temporarily sold in response to the weakness of the ISM, and although it rose to around 1.1750, it was not sustained and stalled.

Background/materials

Although the Eurozone PMI fell short of expectations, the strength of the service sector prompted temporary euro buying.

Weak US ISM results prompted dollar selling, but the overall market remained cautious due to the risk of a government shutdown.

The dollar's movements were limited due to concerns about uncertainty over the Fed's policy management.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The area around 1.1700 acted as support and triggered a rebound.

The level around 1.1750 was seen as resistance and was not broken through.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

On the daily chart, the range of 1.1700 to 1.1800 remains in focus.

In the medium term, the moving average is moving sideways and no clear trend is forming.

Impressions

There were times when the market reacted to the news, but overall the market lacked direction and continued to trade sideways.

Market participants were paying close attention to economic indicators in the US and Europe, but aggressive movements were restrained due to the weekend.

Trading Impressions

In the short term, trading in line with the indicator was effective, but the range of price movements was limited.

The environment was one in which contrarian trading and short-term profit taking based on the assumption of a range were the norm.

Checklist

Eurozone PMI falls short of expectations, but service sector remains resilient

Weakness in the US ISM led to dollar selling, but its sustainability was limited

The price movement between 1.1700 and 1.1750 was considered the range for the day.

Looking back

Buying was ahead during European trading hours, but it stalled after the UK PMI fell short of expectations, and although there was some dollar selling during New York trading hours due to weakness in the US ISM, the market remained within a range.

summary

Intraday price movements reacted to Western indicators, but no sustained trend formed.

The market remained in a range-bound, corrective price movement, and market participants refrained from taking an aggressive stance ahead of the weekend.

Today's price movements

During European trading hours, the index rose to around 1.3480, but growth stalled due to the PMI downturn.

During New York time, the weakness of the ISM led to dollar selling reaching around 1.3430, but the dollar subsequently declined.

Background/materials

UK PMI fell short of expectations, and concerns about slowing economic momentum capped the pound's upside

Weakness in the US ISM led to dollar selling, but market activity was limited due to concerns about the risk of a government shutdown and uncertainty about Fed policy.

Overall, the factors cancelled each other out, making it difficult to create a sense of direction.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The 1.3425-1.3430 range was seen as support on the downside, which was the reason for the price stopping the decline.

The area around 1.3480 acted as resistance and became the limit of short-term recovery.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

On the daily chart, the range between 1.3400 and 1.3500 continues, suggesting a directionless consolidation.

The moving average is flat and no clear trend signal is evident.

Impressions

Although there were some moments when the market reacted temporarily to European and American indicators, the overall trend remained quiet and within a range.

The market was in a strong wait for a new trigger, and there was a strong sense of caution.

Trading Impressions

In the short term, small buying and selling using indicators was effective, but it was difficult to follow the price range.

It was a good day for trading focused on contrarian strategies and short-term profit taking.

Checklist

The downside of the UK PMI has limited the pound's upside

Recognize that the dollar selling due to the weakness of the US ISM is temporary and over.

The range of 1.3430 to 1.3480 was the main price movement level on the day.

Looking back

There was a lack of material on the Australian side, and the dollar remained in a small range throughout the day. During New York time, the dollar was temporarily sold due to weakness in the US ISM, but the direction was limited.

summary

There was no notable movement from Tokyo to Europe, and the market remained calm around 0.6600.

The weak ISM reading during New York trading led to selling of the dollar and a recovery in the Australian dollar, but the momentum did not last long.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, the price continued to move in a narrow range around 0.6600.

During New York time, the price rose to around 0.6615 due to weakness in the ISM, but then fell back and converged again to around 0.6600.

Background/materials

There was no particularly new information on the Australian side, and factors that could influence the market direction were limited.

In the US, weakness in the ISM triggered dollar selling, but the trend did not continue due to remaining uncertainties such as the risk of a government shutdown.

The market as a whole was in a wait-and-see mood, and price movements were limited.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The 0.6585 level acted as support and served as a benchmark for a short-term rebound.

The area around 0.6615 was seen as resistance and was not broken through.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

On the daily chart, the price continues to move within the range of 0.6580 to 0.6630.

The moving average is flat, and no clear trend has been confirmed in the medium term.

Impressions

A lack of material in Australia and weak indicators in the US combined to restrain movements in one direction.

The market reacted in the short term, but there was a strong impression that the market was in a correction mode ahead of the weekend.

Trading Impressions

In the short term, it was possible to trade in line with the dollar selling following the ISM, but it was difficult to follow suit.

Overall, it was an effective day for a range strategy that focused on contrarian trading and small profit taking.

Checklist

There was no notable new news on the Australian side, and the market lacked direction.

Weakness in the US ISM triggered temporary dollar selling, but it was not sustained.

The range of 0.6580 to 0.6630 was considered the main trading range for the day.