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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | August New Manufacturing Orders [Month-on-Month] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
|
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| 🇩🇪 Germany | ★ | August New Manufacturing Orders [Year-on-Year Comparison] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
|
* We have selected indicators with high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Important remarks and market closures
| kinds | time | country | Contents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closed | - | 🇨🇳 China | - |
Today's Outlook
Following the election of Sanae Takaichi as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, expectations for fiscal expansion are spreading, and pressure for a weaker yen continues. The yen continues to trade above the psychological threshold of 150 yen, and there is a tendency for the yen to test the upper limit. We are now at a stage where we need to determine how long the short-term momentum can be sustained.
The previous day saw a downward pressure due to political uncertainty in France, but buying back occurred towards the close, leaving a lower shadow on the daily chart. Some have suggested that this movement has solidified the bottom, but this is not enough to provide conclusive evidence, and market instability remains. Today, attention will be focused on the direction of the initial movement, as it will determine whether the bottom will be tested again, or whether the top will be tested after confirming support.
The previous day saw no clear direction, and today is likely to be another day of searching for short-term direction, with no major developments.
The previous day saw a shift in the market, but it remained within a small range, making it a day lacking direction. Today is also likely to be a day of searching for short-term direction, with no major news.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| Price Fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
Sanae Takaichi was elected as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, and expectations for fiscal expansion have grown, leading to a continued weakening of the yen and maintaining the dollar-yen exchange rate at the 150 yen level.
Expected range
Expected to be around 149.50 to 151.00
The stock continues to stagnate at a level above the psychological threshold, and there is a sense of it testing the market.
tactics
Buying on dips is the basic strategy, with emphasis on entry near support
On the other hand, be cautious when chasing high prices and prioritize taking profits at the upper limit of the range.
trigger
If the yen clearly breaks through 151.00, selling pressure on the yen may reignite.
If the price falls below 149.50, the dip buying strategy will collapse.
Tokyo time: Government officials make remarks, European time: New York time: focus on US economic indicators
Nullification Conditions
If the price falls significantly below 149.50 and breaks below the lower limit of the range, the dip buying strategy will be negated.
On the other hand, if the price breaks through 151.00 and settles there, it will be difficult to implement a sell-on-rebound strategy.
Risk Event
Possible currency intervention by Japanese authorities and related statements
Risk of a US government shutdown and Congressional news
Major US economic indicators and interest rate trends
Position Management
Keep position size at about half of normal size to prepare for increased volatility
Prioritize short-term profits by targeting 30-50 pips for profit taking.
Stop loss is set when the price clearly breaks through support or resistance.
Checklist
Checking the degree of stability in the 150 yen range
Keeping a close eye on the statements and intervention stance of the Japanese authorities
Examining whether US economic indicators will continue to be a factor in dollar buying
Market Summary
There was a downward pressure due to political uncertainty in France, but the price was bought back towards the close, leaving a lower shadow on the daily chart, and although unstable, it confirmed its support.
Expected range
Expected to be around 1.1660 to 1.1740
There is a possibility of both lower and upper test prices, so attention will be focused on the direction of the initial movement.
tactics
Based on range rotation, consider buying on dips near support and selling on rallies near resistance
Respond flexibly to short-term movements and prioritize taking profits
trigger
If the price clearly exceeds 1.1740, the upward test will intensify.
If it breaks below 1.1660, it may move into a trend of testing the lower end again.
European indexes and statements by important people, as well as US economic indexes in New York, tend to be factors.
Nullification Conditions
If the price falls below 1.1660 and continues to make new lows on the daily chart, the dip buying strategy will be negated.
On the other hand, if the price clearly breaks through 1.1740 and settles there, it will be difficult to implement a sell-on-rebound strategy.
Risk Event
Additional reports on French politics and increased political risks
New data released on eurozone inflation
Risk of a US government shutdown and release of major economic indicators
Position Management
Keep position size smaller than usual to prepare for volatile price movements
Take profits at 20 to 40 pips and focus on short-term profit taking.
Stop losses are executed when support or resistance is clearly broken.
Checklist
Check whether the range of 1.1660-1.1740 is maintained
Keeping an eye on the impact of French political developments on the euro
Examining whether US interest rates and US economic indicators will influence the direction of the dollar
Market Summary
The previous day saw a lack of direction, with limited up and down movement.
There is a lack of major news today, so it is expected to be a day of searching for short-term direction.
Reactions to US interest rate trends and UK economic indicators may lead to localized price movements.
Expected range
Expected to trade in a range around 1.3380–1.3480
The downside is likely to be around 1.3380, while the upside is likely to be suppressed around 1.3480.
In the short term, we will focus on trading within a narrow price range.
tactics
Currently, there is a lack of clear direction, so focus on range rotation
Consider buying on dips at lower prices and combine it with selling on rallies at higher prices.
Aim for small profit margins but avoid unreasonable positions
trigger
The focus for the breakout will be whether it clearly exceeds 1.3500.
Beware of a downward break if 1.3360 is broken.
UK economic indicators during European time and US interest rate trends during New York time could be turning points
Nullification Conditions
If the price exceeds 1.3520, the sell-on-return strategy may be negated
Conversely, if the price breaks 1.3340, buying on dips will become less effective.
Check whether the direction changes at the daily closing price
Risk Event
UK economic indicators (construction and service industries)
Reports on US interest rates and the risk of a government shutdown
Sudden fluctuations due to statements by key figures from major countries
Position Management
Maintain small position size due to range expectation
Aim for a small profit of around 20 to 30 pips
Set tight stop loss based on the most recent highs and lows
Checklist
Trade with an eye on the range of 1.3380-1.3480
Check the release times of UK and US economic indicators
Keep your positions light to prepare for sudden news or important statements
Market Summary
The previous day, buying was ahead in Tokyo, selling dominated in Europe, and dollar buying progressed in New York, with trends varying from market to market.
However, overall, the price remained in a narrow range around 0.6600, and continued to lack direction.
There is little notable new information today, so the market is likely to be searching for short-term direction.
Expected range
Expected to trade in a range centered around 0.6580–0.6640
The lower limit is likely to be around 0.6580, and the upper limit is likely to be around 0.6640.
No major trends are likely to emerge, and developments are expected to be dominated by small movements.
tactics
In the short term, the basic tactic is to rotate the range.
The idea is to buy on dips when the price approaches the bottom and sell on rallies when the price approaches the top.
It is effective to avoid large positions and aim for small profits.
trigger
A breakout will occur if there is a clear movement above 0.6650.
A downside break occurs when a break below 0.6570 is confirmed.
Flows during European time zones and US interest rate trends during New York time will be key
Nullification Conditions
If the price exceeds 0.6660, the strategy of selling on rallies may be negated.
Conversely, if the price breaks below 0.6560, buying on dips will be less effective.
Keep an eye on the daily closing price to see if there are any signs of a negation of the range.
Risk Event
Economic indicators related to Australia and China are released
US interest rate news and government shutdown risk
Sudden information from statements by important figures of major countries
Position Management
Maintain a light position as it is in the center of the range
Take profits early at around 15 to 25 pips
Stop loss is set tightly based on the most recent high and low prices
Checklist
Respond with an awareness of the range of 0.6580 to 0.6640
Check the trends in US interest rates and Chinese economic news
Keep your positions light in case of unexpected events
FX Journal