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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★★ | September Consumer Price Index (HICP, revised value) [Year-on-year comparison] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
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| 🇪🇺 Europe | ★★ | September Consumer Price Index (HICP Core Index, revised value) [Year-on-year comparison] |
Graphical display
Displays the rate fluctuations after the index is announced on a graph.
|
* We have selected indicators with high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
While there was some buying during Tokyo time the previous day, falling US interest rates led to dollar selling in New York, resulting in the closing lows. Today, we will need to assess the momentum of the recovery and the point at which it will stall. We also need to be wary of rebalancing flows as a weekend factor.
The previous day saw a continued trading spree in Tokyo and Europe, with buying prevailing in New York on the back of falling interest rates. The market tested higher in the late afternoon, closing at a high. Today, we need to assess the sustainability of the momentum and the depth of the pullback. We also need to be wary of rebalancing flows as a weekend factor.
The previous day, mainly during European trading hours, saw a lack of direction as investors waited for new information. In New York, there was a buying spree, resulting in a slight increase. Today, we need to carefully assess the momentum of the recovery and the depth of the pullback. We also need to be wary of rebalancing flows as a weekend factor.
The previous day saw a lack of material, with trading in a range from Tokyo to Europe, and traffic in New York as well. The recovery was slow in the closing stages, closing slightly lower. The battle around 0.6500 continues, and we need to assess the weight of the upper limit and the depth of the pullback. We also need to be wary of rebalancing flows as a weekend factor.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
During Tokyo trading hours, dollar selling prevailed against the backdrop of falling US interest rates, temporarily weakening to the mid-149 yen range. The weakness continued in early European trading, but buying intensified in the second half as US stock futures bottomed out. During New York trading hours, the dollar/yen pair began to rise after President Trump made positive comments regarding relations with China. As a result, the market ended the day having almost completely erased the losses it had made up until European trading hours, and overall, the day was marked by a sense of stability after the adjustment.
During Tokyo trading, euro buying prevailed due to the weakening of the US dollar, but selling took over during European trading hours, limiting the upside. During New York trading, dollar buying intensified after President Trump expressed a positive stance on improving relations with China. As a result, the day ended with the exchange rate losing all of its gains during the day, making it a day where the upside was palpable.
During Tokyo hours, buying of the pound was dominant against the backdrop of a weaker US dollar, but as European hours began, selling took over and the price turned downwards. During New York hours, dollar buying increased following optimistic comments from President Trump regarding China, but towards the end of the day, there was a mix of rebounds and declines, and the daily chart closed with little substance.
During Tokyo trading, dollar buying prevailed on the back of falling US interest rates, and the Australian dollar fell to around 0.6450. As European trading began, buying resumed as Australian bond yields bottomed out and stock prices recovered. During New York trading, the dollar was bought again following President Trump's positive comments on relations with China, but buying became dominant towards the end of the session. As a result, the dollar recovered all of the losses it had made up until the beginning of the European session and closed at a high level.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
～ | ～ | ～ |
| Price Fluctuations【 USDJPY 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 EURUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 GBPUSD 】 | |||
| Price Fluctuations【 AUDUSD 】 |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
Today's offensive and defensive line
①Range upper limit
②Range lower limit
①Range upper limit
②Range lower limit
①Range upper limit
②Range lower limit
①Range upper limit
②Range lower limit
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
The combination of sluggish US interest rates and expectations of restraint by the authorities makes it difficult to track both upside and downside
While Tokyo is prone to sell-offs and Europe is recovering, New York is once again prone to fluctuations driven by interest rates.
After buying back in Tokyo the previous day, dollar selling prevailed in New York, closing at a low level and testing the sustainability of the momentum.
Expected range
Around 150.50–151.90
Below, 150.50 is a potential support point, and if it breaks, there is room for further downward pressure to the 150.00 level.
On the upside, the 151.90-152.00 range is a resistance zone for a rebound, so the focus will be on whether the price can stabilize at the upside.
tactics
The basic principle is to use range rotation as the axis, buying on dips at the bottom and selling on rallies at the top.
Prepare for the initial fake move by splitting in and out
Follow the break with a small force and withdraw quickly if it stalls.
trigger
On the upside, if the price breaks out and settles above 151.60, be wary of a test towards 151.90.
Down below, a break below 151.00 will see a test of 150.50
The time frame is likely to react to interest rate headlines entering Europe and early in New York.
Nullification Conditions
If the price exceeds 151.90 with volume for multiple periods, the assumption of a sell-on rally will be invalidated.
If the price clearly breaks below 150.50 and remains near 150.00, the dip buying assumption will be invalidated.
Risk Event
US housing and economic indicators
Statements by VIPs and Headlines urging the authorities
Imbalances in dollar flows due to U.S. Treasury auctions and sudden changes in yields
Position Management
The size is limited to 50–70% of the normal size and added after checking consecutive bars.
Take profits in stages, approximately 15–25 pips
Stop loss is limited to 10-20 pips from the previous high/low point of the entry reason
Checklist
Plate thickness and initial reaction at 151.00 and 151.60
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
Presence or absence of government-related headlines and the degree to which the market has factored them in
Market Summary
Sluggish US interest rates have helped support the euro as the dollar's strength eases, while the ECB remains data-dependent
Tokyo and Europe are in a stalemate, while New York closed at a high due to buying. This is a time to test the sustainability of the momentum.
Expected range
Around 1.1600–1.1680
Be aware of the downward trend of 1.1600-1.1580, and the upward trend of 1.1660-1.1680, which is a sell-off area.
tactics
The basic strategy is to rotate within the range, and buy on dips at the bottom.
Follow the breakouts slightly, and if the growth slows down, take profits quickly and start again.
trigger
On the upside, the price should break above 1.1660 and settle, so be wary of testing 1.1680
Down below, a break of 1.1600 will see a test of 1.1580
The market is likely to react to interest rate headlines and US indicators as it enters Europe and early in the New York market.
Nullification Conditions
If the price maintains above 1.1680 for multiple periods with volume, the assumption of a sell-on rally is invalidated.
If the price clearly breaks below 1.1580 and remains stuck, the dip buying assumption will be invalidated.
Risk Event
US housing-related and high-frequency economic indicators
ECB remarks and eurozone price and demand headlines
Sudden changes in equity and credit risk tolerance
Position Management
Start with 50–70% of normal size and add more after checking consecutive bars.
Take profit in 15-25 pip increments, stop loss 10-20 pips before the most recent high or low
Avoid new trades before and after the indicator, and always set stop-loss orders for existing trades
Checklist
Plate thickness and initial reaction at 1.1600 and 1.1660
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
Presence or absence of ECB-related headlines and the degree to which the market is pricing them in
Market Summary
While the dollar's strength is easing due to sluggish US interest rates, expectations of slowing wages and inflation and the Bank of England's cautious stance are holding back the upside in the UK.
The previous day saw a trading fluctuating trend mainly during European trading hours, but in New York there was a buying spree and the market closed slightly higher. This is a time to check the sustainability of the momentum and the depth of the pullback.
Expected range
Around 1.3350–1.3450
Downwards, 1.3350 is a potential support point, and if it breaks, check the reaction around 1.3330
Above, a return to 1.3430–1.3450 is expected, which is a zone where selling pressure is expected.
tactics
The basic principle is to use range rotation as the axis, buying on dips at the bottom and selling on rallies at the top.
Adjust the size according to the change in liquidity during the time period, and if the growth slows down, rotate by taking profits early.
When aiming for a break, enter small, and if it doesn't continue, withdraw immediately.
trigger
On the upside, if it breaks above 1.3430 and settles, a test of 1.3450 is in sight.
Downwards, a clear break below 1.3350 means caution regarding a test of 1.3330
The market is likely to react to interest rate headlines and US indicators as it enters Europe and early in the New York market.
Nullification Conditions
If the price remains above 1.3450 for multiple periods, the assumption of a sell on a pullback is invalidated.
If the price clearly breaks below 1.3330, the dip buying assumption will be invalidated.
Risk Event
US housing-related and high-frequency economic indicators
BOE key figures and UK price and demand headlines
Changes in risk tolerance in the stock market and sudden changes in US interest rates
Position Management
Initial movement should be kept at 50-70% of normal, and increased after confirming consecutive bars.
Divide profits into 15-25 pips and secure a portion of the unrealized profit.
Stop losses are limited to 10-20 pips from the previous high and low, and stop losses are always set before events.
Checklist
Plate thickness and initial reaction at 1.3350 and 1.3430
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
Presence or absence of BOE-related headlines and the degree to which the market has factored them in
Market Summary
The direction is limited as US interest rates remain sluggish and RBA data is driving mixed sentiment.
The previous day saw continued trading between Tokyo and Europe, but New York continued to trade and closed slightly lower.
The battle around 0.6500 continues, and the strength depends on the material and time flow.
Expected range
Around 0.6480–0.6560
Keep an eye on the downside of 0.6500 and 0.6480
Above: Check for sell-off pressure at 0.6540–0.6560
tactics
The basic principle is to use range rotation as the axis, buying on dips at the bottom and selling on rallies at the top.
Anticipating initial fakes, we ensure flexibility by splitting entries and taking profits
Follow the break small and withdraw quickly if the growth slows down
trigger
On the upside, it has broken above 0.6540 and settled, so be wary of testing 0.6560
Down below, a break of 0.6500 will see a test of 0.6480
The market is likely to react to European market entry, interest rate headlines in early New York, and US indicators.
Nullification Conditions
If the price remains above 0.6560 for multiple periods, the assumption of a sell on a pullback will be invalidated.
If the price clearly falls below 0.6480, the dip buying assumption will be invalidated.
Risk Event
US housing-related and high-frequency economic indicators
RBA key figures and Australian price and demand headlines
China-related news and sudden changes in resource prices
Position Management
Start with 50-70% of normal size and add after checking consecutive bars
Take profits in increments of 10-20 pips
Limit stop losses to 10-20 pips from the previous high and low, and strictly enforce stop losses before the event.
Checklist
Plate thickness and initial response at 0.6500 and 0.6540
Direction of US interest rates and the dollar index
RBA-related headlines and news from China
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
Selling of the dollar was ahead from Tokyo to early Europe, but as New York time began, dollar buying took over following the comments on China, and the market closed having almost recovered the losses.
summary
The dollar/yen exchange rate temporarily weakened to the mid-149 yen range, but then recovered to the 150 yen range due to buying back in New York.
Overall, after a period of adjustment, the market reaffirmed its firmness on the downside, and it appeared that the market was searching for a turning point.
Although the direction was limited, the amplitude of price movements widened somewhat throughout the day.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo trading hours, dollar selling took the lead due to falling US interest rates, causing the dollar to fall to around 149.50.
The European market remained weak in the early stages, but buying intensified in the latter half following a rebound in US stock futures.
During New York time, dollar buying accelerated following President Trump's remarks regarding China, and the dollar moved back to around 150.20.
Background/materials
A temporary decline in US interest rates and a softening US dollar index were early downward pressure factors.
The cautious stance of U.S. officials and a risk-averse trend temporarily encouraged yen buying.
Market sentiment improved after President Trump showed a positive attitude toward improving relations with China.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The 149.50 area acted as short-term support, and the price rebounded towards the end of the day.
The level around 150.20 is seen as a target for recovery in the near term.
In the short term, the moving averages will converge, resulting in a range of fluctuations.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The upward trend that has continued since the end of September has come to a halt, suggesting that a correction phase is entering.
There are resistance bands overlapping from the mid-150 yen range to the 153 yen range, and upward pressure is being felt.
On the other hand, if the price falls below 149 yen, bargain hunting is likely to occur, suggesting that the range trend will continue.
Impressions
The market reacted quickly to factors such as policy statements and interest rate trends, and it appeared that short-term position adjustments were the main focus.
The trend of buying back despite testing the lower end reflects investors' cautious risk management stance.
US economic indicators and comments from the start of next week will likely be key to clarifying the direction.
Trading Impressions
Short-term buying at dips was more prevalent than moves aimed at breaking support.
During the rebound during New York time, short-term long positions worked after the recovery to the 150 yen range was confirmed.
Towards the end of the day, the price range narrowed and trading appeared to have calmed down as positions were adjusted.
Checklist
Will the 149.50 support hold?
Keep an eye on whether the resistance zone between 150.20 and 150.50 can be broken through.
Checking US interest rate trends and changes in risk appetite at the start of the week
Looking back
In Tokyo, the weak US dollar led to euro buying, while selling became dominant in Europe, and in New York, dollar buying following comments about China wiped out the gains.
summary
The market was on an upward trend in the early stages due to a return of risk appetite, but after the European market, the market became aware of the weight of the upper limit.
In New York, dollar buying intensified, causing the euro to stagnate and offsetting its gains during the day.
Towards the end, it was difficult to determine the direction, and the market was dominated by short-term movements.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, buying was dominant and there were times when the price tested around 1.17.
During European trading hours, there was a sell-off and the upside was limited to the 1.17 range.
During New York time, dollar buying increased following the remarks on China, pushing the dollar back to the upper 1.16 range.
Background/materials
The euro was supported by a slight decline in US interest rates and early risk appetite.
In Europe, profit-taking and pre-index position adjustments led to selling on rebounds.
In New York, dollar buying increased after positive comments were made about relations with China.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The 1.1700 level is a benchmark for recovery, and if it fails to break above that level, the market is likely to be pushed back.
The focus is on whether the lower limit can be maintained around 1.1670-1.1680
The short-term moving average is flat, suggesting a range formation
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The price will continue to fluctuate within a wide range from the upper 1.16s to just before 1.18.
The upper limit will be weighed down around 1.18, while the lower limit will be monitored for a reaction in the mid-1.16 range.
Momentum is neutral, and direction is likely to depend on factors.
Impressions
It was a day where the reaction to the information was quick and the leadership changed depending on the time of day.
The impression was that the return and push were intertwined and the position did not change significantly.
Interest rates and indexes will continue to be closely watched ahead of the next business day
Trading Impressions
During the uptrend in Tokyo, short-term dip targets were more likely to work.
In Europe, it was safe to follow the trend of sell-offs lightly.
In New York, price movements were fast and profit-taking was the key.
Checklist
Check whether the lower range of 1.1670-1.1680 can be maintained
Check the change in return pressure between 1.1700 and 1.1730
Confirming changes in correlation between US interest rates and US and European indices
Looking back
During Tokyo hours, buying of the pound took the lead due to the weakening of the dollar, but as European hours began, selling became dominant, and in New York, dollar buying progressed following President Trump's remarks regarding China.
summary
In the early stages, the pound rose due to buying that reflected risk appetite, but after Europe, profit-taking selling took place.
During New York time, the dollar was temporarily bought back, resulting in small fluctuations around 1.34.
It was a day lacking direction, with the daily chart closing with a small candle.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, it rose to around 1.3450 following a decline in US interest rates.
As European trading began, risk aversion pushed the yen back down to just before breaking below 1.34.
In New York, President Trump's remarks about China led to increased dollar buying, and the market remained heavy on the upside.
Background/materials
In the United States, fears of a government shutdown and financial instability contributed to fluctuations in the dollar's exchange rate.
In the UK, a slowing economic outlook is keeping the pound from rising.
The dollar recovered following the US government's comments, and dollar buying became dominant against the pound as well.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The upside is being capped around 1.3450, and short-term selling is on the cards.
1.3400 is being watched as an immediate support level.
The short-term moving average is trending sideways, suggesting a range-bound market.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The upward trend since September has subsided, and the adjustment phase continues.
The focus will be on whether the medium-term support line around 1.34 can be maintained.
On the upside, resistance bands overlap around 1.36, leaving selling pressure on the rebound.
Impressions
Buying and selling were mixed throughout the day, with the pound's direction limited.
Comments related to US politics became short-term factors, and a decline in liquidity also had an impact.
The market is thought to be at the stage of assessing the consistency between interest rates and economic indicators.
Trading Impressions
Short-term buying was effective during the uptrend during Tokyo hours, but after Europe, selling on rebounds prevailed.
In New York, the market turned to buying dollars, so it seems that early profit-taking paid off.
With no clear direction, the market was dominated by short-term trading.
Checklist
Support at 1.3400 confirmed
Be aware of the resistance zone above 1.3500
Keep a close eye on US interest rates and UK economic indicators
Looking back
From Tokyo to early Europe, dollar buying was dominant, but buying began to pick up in the latter half of Europe, and the Australian dollar eventually recovered its losses and closed
summary
Although the day's developments lacked direction, there was a noticeable buying spree from the latter half of the European market.
Although dollar buying temporarily strengthened during New York hours, the Australian dollar remained firm.
Overall, the price fluctuated within the range of 0.6450 to 0.6500 but ended at a high.
Today's price movements
During Tokyo hours, dollar buying prevailed against the backdrop of falling US interest rates, and the Australian dollar fell to around 0.6450.
During European trading hours, Australian bond yields bottomed out and stock prices rebounded, leading to buying and a recovery to the 0.6480 range.
During New York time, dollar buying intensified following President Trump's remarks on China, but the Australian dollar also saw buying, ultimately maintaining a high range.
Background/materials
A temporary decline in US interest rates triggered dollar buying, which acted as a downward pressure in the early stages.
In Australia, the stabilization of domestic bond yields provided support, and the recovery of risk appetite was noted.
President Trump's comments helped improve market sentiment, leading to buying of both the US dollar and the Australian dollar.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
0.6450 acted as short-term support, rebounding towards the end of the day
0.6500 was seen as the upper limit, and attempts to break above it were seen.
In the short term, the moving averages will converge and the trend will remain volatile.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
The downward trend since mid-September has subsided, forming a cross-shareholding at the bottom.
If the price stays above 0.6500, there is room to test the 0.66 range, but the lows of 0.64 are prone to buying on dips.
In the medium term, it will be difficult to determine the direction, and the price will continue to fluctuate within the main range.
Impressions
The market reacted sensitively to news on US interest rates and US-China relations throughout the day.
The Australian dollar has a strong correlation with the US dollar, making it prone to short-term price movements depending on the news.
Even as risk sentiment improved, aggressive positioning appeared subdued.
Trading Impressions
Short-term buying was effective in the low range during Tokyo hours, and the market saw a rebound.
Long positions dominated in late European buybacks
During New York trading hours, the price continued to trade in the high range, with short-term trading the main focus.
Checklist
Will the 0.6450 support hold?
Keep an eye on whether it will settle above 0.6500
Continued monitoring of the impact of US interest rates and China-related comments
FX Journal