Market Summary

Progress in Japan's ruling coalition is raising expectations for fiscal expansion, leading to a slight weakening of the yen.

On the other hand, the narrowing interest rate gap between the US and Japan and policy uncertainty will be factors that will keep the dollar/yen exchange rate from rising.

The previous day saw small price movements and a lack of direction, so investors are cautiously watching to see whether the momentum of the recovery will continue.

Expected range

Expected to be around 149.50–151.50.

tactics

We will focus on buying on dips, while keeping in mind range rotation in combination with selling on rallies.

trigger

Breakout level: If it exceeds around 150.90.

Downside breakout level: If it breaks below around 149.70.

Time period: Focus on early movements in the Tokyo market.

Nullification Conditions

Price that negates the assumption: A clear rise above the upper limit and a sharp rebound to around 152.00, or a fall below the lower limit and a sharp drop to around 149.00.

Risk Event

Preliminary national consumer price index (scheduled for release on October 23rd) and Bank of Japan-related comments.

Position Management

Keep the size at about 50% of the standard, set the profit target at about half the range width, and set the stop loss target near the bottom of the range if the lower limit is broken.

Checklist

Confirmed progress in reporting on Japan's ruling coalition.

Monitors the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, as well as statements and events from the Bank of Japan and the US.

We will be watching to see how USD/JPY reacts to the key levels of 149.70 and 150.90.

Market Summary

While the direction is limited as we await European indicators, the market is gauging the strength of the recovery phase.

Intermittent reactions to US interest rates and statements by important figures have led to a mix of heavy upper limits and buying back at lower limits.

While the previous day's price was suppressed, it cannot be said that the price has consolidated.

Expected range

Expected to trade around 1.1600–1.1750

Depending on the event, there is room to expand the range, but first prioritize offense and defense within the range.

tactics

As the underlying trend is unclear, small changes will be made based on range rotation.

The upper row assumes selling on a rebound, and the lower row assumes buying on dips, and if the advantage weakens, withdraw quickly.

The initial breakthrough is a short-term attempt to avoid deception.

trigger

The breakout was confirmed around 1.1720 and a pullback was formed.

The downside was a break near 1.1620, and selling on the rebound was confirmed.

Focus on price movements immediately after flash PMIs and key figures' comments in European trading hours

Nullification Conditions

The assumption of a breakout is invalid if the price does not stay at the upper level and the time spent at the most recent high is extremely short.

The assumption of a downward breakout is invalid if the price fails to settle at the lower level and quickly returns to the range.

Risk Event

Eurozone Flash PMI

Comments from major central bank officials and minutes of meetings

US economic indicators and inflation updates

Position Management

Start with 50–70% of your normal size and go down a notch before the event

Profit taking is determined in stages near the center of the range or just before the most recent swing.

Stop losses are executed mechanically based on the trigger negation level, and the average profit/loss ratio is maintained at 1 or more.

Checklist

European PMI headlines and breakdowns: direction confirmed

Check the impact of simultaneous changes in US interest rates and the dollar index on the euro

Check whether the upper and lower limits of the range have been updated due to liquidity changes from Asia to Europe

Market Summary

Expectations of a slowdown in UK inflation and wages and uncertainty about the future of the Bank of England coexist, and while the recovery is slow, the market is prone to buying back when the market moves downward.

The previous day, the price rebounded but the upper limit was still heavy, so today we need to assess the momentum of the rebound and the reaction to the pullback.

High sensitivity to US interest rates and statements by important figures, so attention should be paid to the direction of European trading hours

Expected range

Expected to trade around 1.2620–1.2760

Range expansion is likely to occur in limited cases immediately after indicators or statements by important figures.

tactics

Based on range rotation, sell on pullbacks in the upper row and buy on dips in the lower row.

Break attempts are split to avoid initial deception

trigger

The breakout confirmed the formation of a pullback and settlement around 1.2740.

The downside was a clear break near 1.2640 and a sell-off on the rebound was confirmed.

Focus on the period of increased trading volume in early London and early New York trading

Nullification Conditions

The assumption of a breakout is invalid if the price does not stay in the upper range and returns to the range early.

The assumption of a downward breakout is invalid if the price fails to stay at the bottom and quickly recovers to the center of the range by rebounding.

Risk Event

UK PMI flash and inflation-related headlines

Updates on key central bankers' statements and parliamentary positions

Interest rate trends based on US economic indicators such as US PMI

Position Management

Start with 50-70% of your normal starting hand, and then lower it a level before and after the event.

Profit taking is determined in stages just before the center of the range or just before the most recent swing.

Stop losses are mechanically executed based on the trigger negation level, ensuring consistent risk-reward management

Checklist

Check the direction and breakdown of surprises in UK indexes

Confirming simultaneous fluctuations in US interest rates and the dollar index

Enter London to check if the range will be updated

Market Summary

Market sentiment is supported by comments made by US officials regarding China, and the Australian dollar is experiencing a buying spree after a downward slide.

Although uncertainty about the Chinese economy remains, rising stock prices and risk appetite are supporting the Australian dollar

The previous day, after testing the lower end during European trading hours, the recovery strengthened during New York trading hours.

Expected range

Expected to be around 0.6470–0.6570

While the market is checking the bottom in the short term, it is looking for momentum to recover.

tactics

Mainly buy on dips, and respond in stages while assessing support around 0.65

Prioritize profit taking at the top end, and maintain a flexible stance while also considering range fluctuations.

trigger

A breakout occurs when the price clearly exceeds the 0.6560 level and settles

If the price breaks below 0.6470, it will likely be dominated by sell-offs.

Attention is focused on the direction of initial responses during Tokyo and European time

Nullification Conditions

The assumption of a breakout is invalid if the price immediately falls back into the range after updating the high.

The assumption of a downward breakout is invalid if there is a rapid buying back after the breakout and the price recovers to the 0.65 range again.

Risk Event

China's economic indicators and policy-related news

RBA comments and inflation outlook update

Changes in the dollar index due to US interest rate trends and statements by important figures

Position Management

Set trading size at 50-70% of normal size, and adjust slightly before and after index announcements

The target for taking profits is near the middle of the range, and the stop loss is at a level that clearly falls below the most recent low.

During events, carefully select entry positions to prepare for wider spreads

Checklist

Check market reaction to Chinese economic indicators and key figures' comments

Check for changes in RBA policy stance

Check the direction of the US Dollar Index and stock indexes

Looking back

Although there were instances of yen buying during European trading hours, expectations for the inauguration of the Takaichi administration led to yen selling, resulting in a lack of direction.

summary

Although dollar buying was dominant in the early stages, the market was aware of the weight of the upper limit, making it easy for selling to occur on rebounds.

In Europe, yen buying temporarily strengthened following hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan

After that, selling of the yen became dominant due to political factors, and the market recovered again.

US time market remained in a wait-and-see mood due to lack of material

Today's price movements

Tokyo saw a buying spree but then a pullback, fluctuating between 150 yen and 150 yen

The yen strengthened in Europe, but in the US, the dollar again began to be bought, resulting in little movement.

The daily price range was limited and no clear direction was observed.

Background/materials

A hawkish speech by a Bank of Japan policymaker was seen as a factor for buying the yen.

On the other hand, the news of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Restoration Party agreeing to form a coalition government led to yen selling.

The prospect of Takaichi's inauguration raises expectations for political stability, supporting the dollar/yen

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The area around 150 yen is likely to be seen as support.

Selling on rebounds occurred in the lower 151 yen range, acting as the upper limit of the range.

Range trading without direction continues in the short term

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The 152 yen level remains a strong resistance zone

On a daily basis, the price continues to consolidate at high levels.

The turning point for the medium-term trend will be whether the price will clearly break below 150 yen

Impressions

It seems that the market is easily affected by news and short-term investors are the main buyers.

Political factors drive the movement, while fundamentals have limited influence

The market is in a wait-and-see state, searching for the next clue

Trading Impressions

Buying on dips at the lower end of the range and selling on rallies at the upper end of the range

Keep positions light in the absence of clear direction and prioritize risk management in the event of sudden changes

Don't aim for a breakout, it's safe to focus on price fluctuations

Checklist

Check whether there are any additional comments from Bank of Japan officials

Keeping a close eye on US interest rate trends and stock market risk appetite

Market reaction to the battle to break below 150 yen

Looking back

Buying was dominant during Tokyo hours, but selling on the rebound became dominant from Europe to New York, confirming the heavy upper limit.

summary

Overall, there was a lack of material, and price movements continued without any sense of direction.

After European trading hours, there was a sell-off and the upward momentum slowed.

Buying and selling were mixed around the milestone, and the price remained within a range throughout the day.

With the event approaching, there was a noticeable movement to adjust positions.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, buying was slightly ahead, resulting in a firm start

Selling pressure increased during European trading hours, limiting the upside.

During New York trading, the market lacked direction and remained within a limited price range.

Background/materials

Comments by ECB officials come into focus, and expectations of further easing recede

A wait-and-see attitude spread ahead of European PMI release

There were intermittent dollar purchases linked to US interest rate trends.

The stock markets of major countries also moved only slightly, limiting the impact on foreign exchange.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The recent high is likely to be perceived as resistance.

The downside is supported by the recent lows, and the range appears to be continuing.

The market continues to lack direction in the short term

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The daily chart indicates that the uptrend may be entering a correction phase.

On the weekly chart, the price continues to fluctuate around the high range.

Major moving averages have converged, and the market is waiting for a sense of the next direction.

Impressions

With no notable news, the market was dominated by technical factors.

Market remains cautious ahead of the event, with trading subdued

There is limited movement both upside and downside, and a wait-and-see mood prevails.

Trading Impressions

In the short term, the price is likely to be hit hard, so there is a risk of sell-offs.

It is more effective to focus on price fluctuations rather than aiming for a breakout

It is best to maintain a light position until you get a sense of direction.

Checklist

Check whether there are any further comments from ECB officials

Focus on the Eurozone PMI preliminary figures and market reaction

Check the trends of US interest rates and the dollar index

Looking back

Although buying was dominant during Tokyo hours, selling on the rebound became dominant from Europe to New York, and the price fluctuated little at around 1.34 in the final minutes.

summary

It was a day lacking in direction, with prices fluctuating between rising and falling throughout the day.

Expectations of a US interest rate cut held down the dollar, while a wait-and-see attitude ahead of UK data limited the pound's upside.

As a result, the price range was limited and trading was dominated by back-and-forth movements.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, the price continued the trend from the previous weekend, rising to around 1.3420 with some short covering.

After European investors entered the market, selling of the pound intensified, pushing it back to the 1.3360 range.

During New York trading, the dollar also recovered, and the pair continued to fluctuate around 1.3400.

Background/materials

In the United States, dollar buying was curbed due to a pause in the rise in long-term interest rates and cautious comments from FOMC members.

In the UK, trading was limited as positions were adjusted ahead of key indicators such as CPI.

European stocks and crude oil prices also lacked direction, and there were few clues from external factors.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The area around 1.3350 is seen as support on the downside, while the upside is heavy in the 1.3430 range.

The short-term EMA is moving sideways, and there are limited signs of a trend reversal.

The RSI remains around 50, and the range-bound movement continues with little momentum.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

On the daily chart, the upward trend line that has been in place since August is maintained, but momentum is slowing.

The 20-day and 50-day lines are converging, making it difficult to determine the direction.

If it clearly breaks below 1.3300, there is a possibility that the correction will intensify, but at the moment it is in a neutral zone.

Impressions

There was a strong wait-and-see mood as investors waited for new information, and it seemed that active buying and selling was refrained from.

Attention will be focused on whether UK and US economic indicators later in the week will spark a renewed trend.

Overall, price movements were dominated by short-term investors, with actual demand flow being limited.

Trading Impressions

This is a market suitable for day trading, where you can take advantage of rebounds within a narrow range.

The movement to chase higher prices is slow, and a selling mindset on rebounds appears to be dominant.

Volatility has been declining in the short term, resulting in a quiet period before the index.

Checklist

Confirmed range of 1.3350-1.3430 is maintained

Reconfirm the release schedule for major indicators (UK CPI, US PMI)

Keep an eye on interest rate trends and the dollar index after New York time

Looking back

Although buying was dominant during Asian trading hours, selling on rebounds intensified in Europe, and bargain hunting came in in New York, causing the market to close around 0.6500.

summary

Expectations of easing US-China trade tensions supported the Australian dollar, and a weaker dollar also provided a tailwind.

However, stagnant resource prices and uncertainty about the future of Australian employment and policy were seen as factors that would restrain the price from rising.

As a result, there was no clear directional movement and the price fluctuated within a range around 0.6500.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, there was a movement to recover to the 0.6500 range at one point, and buying was dominant.

As European trading began, the exchange rate was pushed back from the high 0.6500 range to around 0.6450 at one point.

During New York trading hours, buying resumed and the price recovered to around 0.6500, closing at a high level.

Background/materials

Expectations for a resumption of trade talks between the US and China have grown, providing a tailwind for risk currencies such as the Australian dollar.

On the other hand, weak employment statistics in Australia and sluggish resource prices have raised concerns about the future of policy interest rates.

The dollar index remained weak, and the move to hold back on the dollar supported the Australian dollar to some extent, but not enough to create a clear trend.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The price continues to fluctuate within the range of 0.6450 to 0.6500, so caution is required when breaking through.

It has been pointed out that there is a possibility that the short-term moving average (e.g., EMA50) will act as resistance on the upside.

There are observations that the RSI and other indicators are a little overheated, so we need to be careful of the risk of a correction from a sudden rise.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

On a daily basis, a downward channel is forming, and until an upward breakout occurs, there is a need to be cautious about a medium-term range or downward swing.

While around 0.6400 is seen as a target for the lower limit, around 0.6645 is seen as a target for the upper limit for the time being.

Depending on the trends in resource prices and comments from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), a trend reversal is likely to occur.

Impressions

Today's market gave the strong impression of being in a range while waiting for new information, and there were limited major movements in either direction.

Improved risk appetite and a weaker dollar have supported the Australian dollar but have yet to translate into a clear uptrend.

Going forward, Australian employment and China-related data and policy comments could be a turning point.

Trading Impressions

In day trading, buying and selling mainly takes place within the range of 0.6450 to 0.6500.

There is a tendency for the trend to be selling on rallies followed by buying on dips, and with the direction difficult to see, it is realistic to stick to a small price range.

However, if any sudden policy or economic news comes out, there is a possibility that the price will break out of the range, so it is important to carefully set stops and manage risks.

Checklist

Check price movements within the 0.6450-0.6500 range on a regular basis.

Understand the release schedules of major economic indicators from China, Australia, and the United States.

Monitor trends in resource prices (especially iron ore) and the dollar index (DXY).