Market Summary

With the yen continuing to weaken against the backdrop of expectations for economic measures by the Takaichi administration and high US interest rates, the dollar/yen exchange rate has been hovering in the upper 152 yen range, and developments are focused on a turning point.

Expected range

Around 151.80 to 153.00

tactics

Maintain a stance of mainly buying on dips, but take a cautious approach by prioritizing taking profits when prices reach new highs.

trigger

On the upside, if the price clearly breaks above around 153.00, buying will become more dominant.

On the downside, if the price breaks below 151.80, there is a possibility that further adjustments will be considered.

Pay attention to fluctuations in US interest rates and the timing of statements by important figures

Nullification Conditions

If the yen clearly falls below the mid-151 yen range and settles at the closing price, it will be considered a pause in the upward trend.

If yen-buying flows increase due to sudden risk aversion or fears of intervention

Risk Event

Policy-related coverage following Japan's national CPI results

Release of US durable goods orders and consumption-related indicators

Speculation and comments from key figures regarding next week's BOJ meeting

Position Management

When chasing higher prices, split your entries and focus on taking profits when prices rise sharply.

When buying on dips, check the support band and buy in small lots.

Strict stop loss management based on the price falling below the 151 yen level

Checklist

Check for new reports on Japan's economic measures

Keep a close eye on trends in US long-term interest rates and the dollar index

Check the impact of BOJ-related statements and news on the market

Market Summary

The previous day's lack of direction continued, with the euro/dollar pair trading within a narrow range.

Today, attention will be focused on the preliminary German and Eurozone PMI figures and US interest rate trends, and depending on the results, there is a possibility that the market will test either the upper or lower limits of the range.

Overall, markets are focused on short-term price action as they await events

Expected range

Around 1.0600 to 1.0680

tactics

Based on range rotation, be conscious of flexible response in preparation for short-term breaks

It is safe to hold your position until the European PMI is announced and then enter after checking the results.

Short-term investors will mainly focus on contrarian trading near the upper and lower limits

trigger

On the upside, if the price clearly breaks above around 1.0680, buying may intensify.

On the downside, if the 1.0600 level is broken, dollar buying will prevail and the correction movement is likely to spread.

Preliminary European PMI figures and US interest rate movements signal a reversal of the short-term trend

Nullification Conditions

If the price remains flat around 1.0650 throughout the day, the short-term breakout scenario will be temporarily invalidated.

If European and American indicators settle around market expectations and volatility drops dramatically

If the dollar index remains largely unchanged from the previous day and loses its sense of direction

Risk Event

Preliminary German and Eurozone PMI figures released

Release of US durable goods orders and consumption-related indicators

Statements by ECB and Fed officials

Position Management

Trading within a range involves managing positions in small lots and settling short-term as a rule.

When a breakout or a breakout occurs, use split entries while assessing the momentum.

Set stop loss at 20 to 30 pips and avoid pursuing too far until you see the direction.

Checklist

Preliminary German and Eurozone PMI results and market reaction

Keep a close eye on trends in US long-term interest rates and the dollar index

Check the impact of ECB and Fed officials' statements on short-term trends

Market Summary

The previous day's lack of direction continued, with the pound/dollar pair remaining within a range

While expectations of a rate cut following the weak UK CPI reading weighed on the dollar, high US interest rates also supported the dollar.

There are few indicators released today, so attention will be focused on movements after European hours

Expected range

Around 1.2600 to 1.2700

tactics

It is difficult to see a clear trend, and short-term trading is mainly based on range rotation.

While being mindful of pullback selling, we are cautiously aiming to buy on dips at lower prices.

We want to see if there are signs of a breakout during the period of increased liquidity in Europe.

trigger

On the upside, a breakout above around 1.2700 could lead to active short-term buying.

On the downside, selling pressure will intensify if the price breaks below 1.2600, and there is room for short-term adjustments to expand.

European PMI preliminary figures and US interest rate movements could be triggers

Nullification Conditions

If the price remains flat around 1.2650 throughout the day, the breakout scenario will be temporarily invalidated.

Volatility declines as statements by key figures and economic indicators fall within market expectations

If the dollar index remains largely unchanged from the previous day and continues to lack direction

Risk Event

UK economic indicators and comments from BoE officials

US durable goods orders and consumer spending indicators

Fluctuations in US long-term interest rates and geopolitical news affecting market sentiment

Position Management

Anticipate range trading and set conservative position sizes

Use split entries and avoid excessive positions until a break is confirmed

Set stop loss at 20-30 pips and prioritize short-term settlement until a clear direction emerges.

Checklist

Confirmed change in BoE interest rate cut expectations due to UK CPI fallout

Keep an eye on the European PMI preliminary figures and US interest rate trends

A reaction was confirmed near the main range level (1.2600, 1.2700)

ChatGPT:

Market Summary

Although buying was dominant the previous day, the price was unable to clearly break out of the range and remained in a small movement.

Even as US interest rates remain high, the strength of the resource market is being recognized, limiting the downside.

Today will likely be a day of searching for direction amid a lack of material.

Expected range

Around 0.6520 to 0.6590

tactics

Since no clear trend is visible, focus on trading based on range rotation

Respond flexibly by combining short-term buying on dips and selling on rallies

When a break occurs, check the volume and time period before considering entry.

trigger

On the upside, if the price breaks above around 0.6600, buying may become dominant.

On the downside, selling will intensify if the price breaks below 0.6520, and there is concern that a short-term adjustment may be in the cards.

Fluctuations in US interest rates and resource prices are likely to trigger a departure from the range.

Nullification Conditions

If the price remains flat around 0.6550 throughout the day and volume declines, it will be difficult to make short-term trades.

If the dollar index remains at a volatility rate of less than 1% compared to the previous day, it is difficult to determine the direction.

If the Chinese market is closed or there is a lack of material, and the commodity market becomes calm

Risk Event

Australia and China PMI Flash Report

US durable goods orders and personal consumption indicators

Resource price trends (iron ore, copper, crude oil, etc.)

Position Management

When trading within a range, keep position sizes small and settle short-term.

When a break occurs, prioritize split entry after confirmation over following.

Set stop loss at 20-25 pips to limit risk.

Checklist

Check out the Australian and Chinese economic data release schedules

Keep a close eye on trends in US long-term interest rates and the dollar index

Check the impact of intraday fluctuations in resource prices (iron ore and copper) on the Australian dollar

Looking back

During Tokyo trading, dollar buying was ahead on the back of expectations for the Takaichi administration's economic measures, and while Europe saw a heavy upside, New York closed slightly higher as dollar selling following the index was bought back.

summary

Expectations for domestic policy continue to support yen selling

Temporary dollar selling due to weak US economic indicators was quickly resolved

Overall, the market is maintaining a firm footing despite fluctuating around high prices.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, yen selling took the lead, while the dollar/yen exchange rate remained firm.

During European trading hours, the price was trading at around 153 yen, with the price struggling to rise.

During New York time, the dollar was temporarily sold due to the deterioration of US economic indicators, but was later bought back and ended slightly higher.

Background/materials

Expectations for economic stimulus measures from the Takaichi administration support yen selling

In the US, PMI and initial unemployment claims are showing some weakness

The dollar's resilience was a focus of attention amid continued expectations of a widening interest rate gap between Japan and the US.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The price continues to test the resistance level around 153 yen, and there is a lack of momentum to break out above it.

The mid-152 yen range is seen as support on the downside.

While the upward trend line remains strong in the short term, momentum has slowed somewhat.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

On the daily chart, the price is maintaining a gradual upward trend, staying above the 20-day moving average.

The price is approaching the upper limit of the medium-term upward channel, and a correction is on the horizon.

As the price continues to move along the upper limit of the Bollinger Band, there are concerns about overheating.

Impressions

A day lacking direction as domestic policy expectations and US interest rate trends clash

Reaction to indicators is limited, with profit-taking at high levels prevailing in the short term

The overall market appears to be showing signs of position adjustment ahead of the weekend.

Trading Impressions

Be cautious about chasing higher prices, and be wary of pullbacks near key milestones

When a pullback is formed, check for support in the mid-152 yen range and look for a buying opportunity.

While waiting for indicators, short-term trading with limited position size is effective

Checklist

Check the results of major US economic indicators (durable goods orders and preliminary PMI figures)

Check the latest news on Japan's additional economic measures

We will be watching to see if the price breaks above the 153 yen resistance level or if it forms a pullback again.

Looking back

From Tokyo to Europe, the market was in a state of flux, lacking direction. During New York trading, dollar selling prevailed due to weakness in US indexes, but was bought back towards the end of the day, and the daily chart ended with little substance.

summary

Weak US economic indicators led to temporary dollar selling

The euro's lower limit was supported by the strength of European indicators.

In the end, the price continued to move within a range, lacking direction.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, there are few clues and the market is trading in a narrow range.

Eurozone PMI remains firm during European trading hours, testing the upside but with limited momentum

During New York time, US indexes were weak, causing dollar selling to prevail temporarily, but the dollar was subsequently bought back, cutting the upside.

Background/materials

Eurozone PMI exceeds market expectations, supporting expectations of economic recovery

Weak US economic indicators lead to a lull in dollar buying

A lack of major new news in both Europe and the US means a wait-and-see mood continues

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The range of 1.0600 to 1.0680 will continue to be a focus

Short-term moving averages are flat, suggesting a lack of direction

The upper and lower shadows are prominent, and short-term buying and selling flows are intertwined.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

On a daily basis, the price continues to move around the 20-day moving average, remaining in a neutral position.

Located in the middle of the mid-term range, no clear trend reversal has been confirmed.

The RSI remains at a neutral level, with calm price movements and no signs of overheating.

Impressions

Although there was a temporary surge in response to US economic indicators, the overall market lacked direction.

While the euro is showing signs of stability, its upside is also being limited, giving the impression of lacking strength.

Trading was limited as position adjustments prevailed ahead of the weekend.

Trading Impressions

As no clear breakout is seen, contrarian strategies within the short-term range are the focus

Selling on rebounds at higher prices and buying on dips at lower prices in small lots

When indicators react suddenly, it is effective to avoid chasing them too closely and to trade while keeping in mind the upper and lower limits of the range.

Checklist

Check out the results of key economic indicators from the Eurozone and the US

Keep an eye on whether it will break out into the 1.0600-1.0680 range

Check out comments from European leaders and interest rate trends ahead of the start of the week

Looking back

From Tokyo to Europe, the market fluctuated without breaking below the previous day's lows, and during New York time, dollar selling temporarily prevailed due to weakness in US indexes, but buying came in and the market closed slightly lower.

summary

The price continued to move within a range amid a lack of direction.

US data temporarily boosts euro buying and dollar selling, but sustainability is limited

Overall, the market is calm with downward pressure and buybacks intersecting.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, there was little new information, and the price moved within a range that was in line with the previous day's low.

During European trading hours, selling on rebounds and buying on dips were mixed together, resulting in a lack of direction.

During New York time, dollar selling temporarily prevailed due to weak US economic indicators, but short-term buying led to a recovery in value.

Background/materials

Expectations of a rate cut remain strong in the UK, limiting the upside

US economic data falls short of market expectations, sparking dollar selling

Both Europe and the US lacked new policy clues, and they continued to wait for new information.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The range around 1.2600 to 1.2700 will continue to be a focus

The short-term moving average is flat and shows no direction.

Even in a temporary downward trend, buying is likely to occur at the support level

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

On the daily chart, the battle continues around the 20-day moving average, leaving the market in a neutral mood.

Price movements are converging in the middle of the mid-term range, and the trend is searching for a turning point.

The RSI remains neutral, showing no signs of overbought or oversold.

Impressions

The reaction to the US index was temporary, and the market as a whole was in a wait-and-see attitude.

The pound showed some firmness against the dollar but lacked clear upward momentum.

Trading was limited ahead of the weekend, with short-term investors taking the lead.

Trading Impressions

It is effective to sell on rebounds at the upper limit of the range and buy on dips in small amounts at the lower limit.

Pay attention to short-term price movements immediately after the announcement of an index, and aim for a rebound after the reaction rather than following suit.

I would like to be mindful of adjusting my positions towards the start of the week and try to manage my investments with minimal risk.

Checklist

Check the results of major UK and US economic indicators and market reactions

Keep an eye on whether there are any signs of a breakout from the 1.2600-1.2700 range.

Check out the comments made by Bank of England officials and changes in policy stance

Looking back

The market continued to trade in a range with little sense of direction from Tokyo to Europe. During New York time, dollar selling temporarily prevailed due to weakness in US indexes, but was later bought back, resulting in a closing candlestick with a small body.

summary

The Australian dollar is lacking direction despite reacting to the results of US indicators

Resource prices also showed limited movement, with prices remaining in a range due to a lack of material.

Overall, the day was focused on position adjustments ahead of the weekend.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo time, the market continues to trade in a range around the previous day's closing price, lacking a clear sense of direction.

There was temporary buying back during European trading hours, but the upside was heavy and the rise was limited.

During New York time, US economic indicators fell short of expectations, leading to increased selling of the dollar, but short-term investors bought back the dollar.

Background/materials

US economic data fell short of expectations, triggering dollar selling

There was no notable new news in Australia, and the market is in a wait-and-see mood ahead of next week's CPI announcement.

Resources markets remained flat and were unlikely to be a factor influencing the direction of the Australian dollar.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the range centered around the mid-0.65 range is likely to be considered.

The upside was held down by recent highs, while the downside was supported by bargain hunting.

The RSI is at a neutral level, and the trendless market continues.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

On the daily chart, it is moving above the 20-day moving average and maintaining a gradual upward trend.

In the medium term, the range of 0.64 to 0.67 will continue, with limited signs of a change in direction.

On a weekly basis, the price has remained flat since the previous week, and is waiting for a breakthrough.

Impressions

The US dollar as a whole reacted sensitively to the index results, but the momentum was short-lived.

The Australian dollar's downside is limited due to the firm resource market, but there is little clear buying pressure.

Overall, market participants were less willing to trade aggressively, resulting in a quiet Friday

Trading Impressions

If you are looking for short-term price movements, focus on selling at the upper limit of the range and buying at the lower limit.

When chasing higher prices, be careful of profit-taking movements

In preparation for next week's CPI announcement, it is safe to lighten positions and wait until the end of the week.

Checklist

Check out the Australian CPI schedule for next week

Keep a close eye on US economic indicators (PCE and durable goods orders)

Check trends in resource prices (especially iron ore and copper)