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| time | country | Importance | index | Previous Results | prediction | result | Differences between results and expectations | Rate fluctuations after announcement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| πΊπΈ America | β | August Case-Shiller US Home Price Index [Year-on-Year Comparison] | Graphical display | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β | October Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | Graphical display | |||||
| πΊπΈ America | β | October Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board) | Graphical display |
* We have selected indicators with high importance. Not all indicators are listed.
Today's Outlook
The previous day, the rise in US long-term interest rates subsided, slowing down dollar buying. Technically, the market is showing signs of a heavy upward trend, making it easier for yen buying to occur. Today, we want to see where the downward trend will solidify.
The previous day, the euro/dollar exchange rate was in a range-bound state due to a lack of direction amid a calming down of US interest rates. Today, we will be waiting to see if a clear direction emerges.
The previous day, with US interest rates settling, GBP/USD moved without any sense of direction. Expectations of a rate cut simmered against the backdrop of slowing UK inflation, and active trading was shelved. It will be interesting to see if a sense of direction emerges today.
The Australian dollar rose slightly against the US dollar the previous day following indications of progress in US-China trade talks. Today we will be watching to see how long this momentum will continue.
Hints for tomorrow seen in retrospect
During Tokyo time, the yen saw buying following the Japan-US finance ministers' meeting to discuss currency trends. The market once again became wary of intervention, limiting its upside. After European time, the market lacked direction while keeping an eye on US interest rate movements, and trading in a range continued into New York time. Despite the large sell-off, the yen's resilience was a key factor throughout the day.
The market continued to move without any clear direction from Tokyo through European trading hours, but saw a temporary downward pressure in the early hours of the New York session. After that, buying back took over as the rise in US interest rates eased and dollar buying slowed, and the euro closed slightly higher. With the FOMC and ECB Governing Council meetings coming up, active trading was limited, and the overall mood throughout the day was one of wait-and-see.
During European trading hours, selling of the pound prevailed following a fall in the UK 10-year bond yield. After the New York market opened, the recovery in US long-term interest rates also accelerated the downward pressure. While there was some buying back towards the end of the day, the momentum did not continue and the recovery remained sluggish. In the end, the pound closed below last week's low, highlighting the heavy market sentiment.
The market continued to trade in a range-bound manner from Tokyo through European trading hours, lacking a clear sense of direction. While expectations for the US-China summit supported risk appetite, a wait-and-see mood prevailed ahead of the Australian CPI due the next day. As New York trading began, the rise in US interest rates subsided, and dollar buying retreated, giving the Australian dollar a buying advantage. The market remained firm in the late trading hours, closing slightly higher.
Market Information
| Classification | Tokyo | London | new york |
|
session (Summer Time) |
ο½ | ο½ | ο½ |
| Price Fluctuationsγ USDJPY γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ EURUSD γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ GBPUSD γ | |||
| Price Fluctuationsγ AUDUSD γ |
* In the PonTan chart, the background is colored according to the above market sessions.
Today's offensive and defensive line
β Range upper limit
β‘Range lower limit
β Range upper limit
β‘Range lower limit
β Range upper limit
β‘Range lower limit
β Range upper limit
β‘Range lower limit
AI's move: How will you attack today?
Market Summary
The previous day saw a pause in the rise in US long-term interest rates, and dollar buying calmed down.
Technically, the upward momentum slowed as the price was weighed down at the 153 yen level.
Expectations of a Bank of Japan policy revision remain strong, and the market remains favorable for yen buying.
Attention will be focused today on whether there will be any movement to consolidate the lower end.
Expected range
Expected to move around 152.30-153.40
It is prone to fluctuations in both directions, but is likely to be linked to US interest rates and stock price trends.
tactics
While focusing on selling on rebounds at higher prices, we will also consider short-term rotation depending on the reaction of lower prices.
If we see a test of the lower 152 yen range, there is room to consider short-term buying.
trigger
A break above 153.50 could reignite dollar buying
Breaking below 152.20 could lead to an expansion of short-term adjustments
Economic indicators and long-term interest rates in the US are expected to set the tone
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks below 152.00, the scenario of a retest of the upper limit will be invalid for the time being.
On the other hand, if it clearly exceeds 153.80, the view that pullback selling will prevail will be lost.
Risk Event
US consumer confidence and housing-related indicators
Statements by Bank of Japan officials and reports related to foreign exchange intervention
Fluctuations in interest rates in the U.S. Treasury market and changes in stock market sentiment
Position Management
Keep lot sizes to around 70% of normal levels to prepare for sudden changes before and after index announcements
Profit taking is targeted at around 152.60 to 152.80, and stop loss is determined above 153.70.
It is desirable to prioritize short-term price fluctuations and avoid deep pursuit.
Checklist
Will US interest rates resume their rise?
Will the selling pressure continue at the 153 yen level?
Are there signs of the price stabilizing in the lower 152 yen range?
Market Summary
The previous day, US interest rates had stabilized, and the euro/dollar exchange rate was trading in the high 1.16 range with little direction.
With the ECB Governing Council meeting approaching, speculation over the outlook for monetary policy was mixed, and active trading was refrained from.
The dollar's wait-and-see attitude ahead of the release of US economic indicators also contributed to the overall trend of trading in a narrow range.
Today's focus will be on positioning before the event
Expected range
Expected to be around 1.1590 to 1.1740
The market is likely to remain in a difficult state of being unable to break out either up or down, with prices mainly fluctuating within a range.
tactics
In the short term, the basic strategy will be to rotate within a range, selling on rebounds as the price approaches the upper limit, and buying on dips as the price approaches the lower limit.
It is advisable to approach price movements before and after ECB and US index announcements with a light position.
trigger
A break above 1.1740 will lead to buying back.
If it breaks below 1.1590, the downward trend is likely to intensify.
US Conference Board: Consumer confidence and US interest rate trends seen as short-term triggers
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks below 1.1550, the view that the price has broken the lower limit of the range will be denied.
On the other hand, if it exceeds 1.1760, the advantage of the pullback selling strategy will be diminished.
Risk Event
ECB Governing Council and Lagarde Press Conference
Eurozone Consumer Price Index for October (Preliminary)
US economic indicators (consumer confidence, housing) released
Position Management
Keep lot size at 60-70% of normal levels, and moderate new orders until the event is over.
Profit taking will be around 1.1700, and stop loss will be mechanically handled if the price falls below 1.1560.
Limited to short-term trading until a clear direction emerges
Checklist
Is volatility rising due to speculation ahead of the ECB meeting?
Is the selling pressure sustained at the upper end of the 1.17 range?
Will the euro be pushed down by the resumption of dollar buying following the release of US data?
Market Summary
The previous day, US interest rates had stabilized, and the pound/dollar exchange rate was trading in the low 1.33 range, lacking direction.
With the UK's inflation slowing, expectations of an interest rate cut were raised, and the market remained weighed down
The dollar remained in a range-bound position overall, with dollar buyers refraining from buying ahead of the release of US data.
Markets remain cautious ahead of Bank of England meeting this week
Expected range
Expected to be around 1.3280-1.3380
It is difficult to determine the direction, and it appears that the market is waiting for information on whether it will break out either up or down.
tactics
For the time being, we will focus on range rotation, selling on rebounds when the price approaches the upper limit, and buying on dips when the price drops.
Prioritize short-term and small profit margins to avoid sudden changes before the event
trigger
A breakout above 1.3390 could lead to buying
Breaking below 1.3280 leads to intensified adjustment selling
US consumer confidence and UK interest rate futures will provide clues to the direction
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks below 1.3250, it will negate the lower limit of the range and the short-term upswing scenario will collapse.
On the other hand, if it exceeds 1.3420, a strategy that prioritizes selling on rallies will become less effective.
Risk Event
Conference Board Consumer Sentiment Index (10/28)
UK inflation-related indicators and BoE member comments
Speculation about the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting later this week
Position Management
Keep position size at 60-70% of normal and moderate new orders until the indicator is passed.
Profit taking will be around 1.3360-1.3370, and stop loss will be determined when the price falls below 1.3250.
Keep positions light until the direction is solidified, and prepare for liquidity risks in the event of a sudden change
Checklist
Will dollar buying resume after US data?
Will there be a buying reaction on dips in the low 1.33 range?
Is market sentiment changing ahead of the BoE meeting?
Market Summary
The Australian dollar rose slightly against the US dollar on the previous day, as signs of progress in US-China trade talks emerged.
The pause in rising US interest rates curbed dollar buying, supporting the AUD/USD pair's lower end.
However, aggressive buying was limited due to investors wanting to see the results of the Australian CPI the next day.
There was some selling back in the mid-0.65 range, and the overall trend continued to lack direction.
Expected range
Expected to be around 0.6520 to 0.6600
The market is likely to remain in a range-bound state while waiting for an event, and is prone to fluctuations both up and down.
tactics
In the short term, we will focus on range rotation, buying on dips around 0.6520 and selling on rallies around 0.6590.
With the CPI announcement coming up, we will be taking a light position and waiting for the market to pick up steam after the event.
trigger
Breaking above 0.6600 will make buying more likely
A break below 0.6520 could lead to stronger adjustment selling
The results of the US Consumer Confidence Index (10/28) and the Australian CPI (10/29) will be closely watched as short-term triggers.
Nullification Conditions
If the price clearly breaks below 0.6500, the dip buying strategy will be negated.
On the other hand, if it exceeds 0.6640, the advantage of the pullback selling strategy will decrease.
Risk Event
10/29 Australian CPI (3rd quarter) released
The Conference Board Consumer Sentiment Index
Speculation surrounding the RBA Board meeting in early November
Position Management
Keep lot sizes to around 60-70% of normal levels to prepare for the risk of sudden fluctuations before and after events
Profit taking will be around 0.6580-0.6590, and stop loss will be determined when it falls below 0.6500.
Until a sense of direction emerges, it is advisable to limit trading to short-term trading and avoid pursuing too closely.
Checklist
Is there a growing trend of position adjustments ahead of the Australian CPI?
Is the buying support in the mid-0.65 range being maintained?
Will dollar buying resume after US data?
AI Afterword: Today's Market
Looking back
During Tokyo hours, yen buying took the lead following the Japan-US finance ministers' meeting, and thereafter the market remained in a range in both Europe and New York.
summary
The upside remains restrained due to a combination of intervention caution and waiting for an event.
There was buying back at the lower end, but the day was generally lacking in direction.
In the short term, the price range tends to be limited as investors wait for new information.
Today's price movements
Asian time zones continue the trend of the previous day, with a wait-and-see approach
Entering Europe will likely be linked to interest rates and stock market trends, so continued travel is the basic line
New York is waiting for reactions to event headlines, so beware of fluctuations
Background/materials
The aftereffects of yen buying following Japan-US high-level talks and lingering speculation about intervention
The direction of US interest rates remains uncertain, and dollar buying momentum slows
Position adjustments are mainly based on indicators and key figures' comments
Technical Memo (Short Term)
The price continues to fluctuate between recent highs and lows
At the upper end, there is a tendency for selling to occur on rebounds, while at the lower end, there is a reaction of buying on dips.
Short-term moving averages are flat and momentum neutral
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
There is a pause in the upward trend, and the trend assessment will be postponed until after the event is over.
Whether the support band can be maintained will determine the mid-term stance
Volume tends to shrink slightly before the event
Impressions
Markets are reacting quickly to news, so be wary of headline-driven price movements
Rather than being too proactive, we want to assess the quality of our initial response
It is important not to be swayed by sudden price movements during thin trading hours.
Trading Impressions
The basic premise is to rotate in the range, and to follow the break with emphasis on accuracy
Before the event, keep your positions light and take profits frequently
Shallow stops limit damage when going backwards
Checklist
Check for any headlines related to official statements or intervention
Are the trends in U.S. interest rates and stock markets spilling over into the dollar?
Will the upper and lower limits of the range be updated in Asia and how will this be affected by trading volume?
Looking back
The market lacked direction during Tokyo and European trading hours, and after a downturn in the early New York session, buying came in and the market closed slightly higher.
summary
With the FOMC and ECB Governing Council meetings approaching, the overall market is in a wait-and-see attitude
The euro remains firm as dollar buying slows due to a pause in the rise in US interest rates
In the short term, a narrow range will continue as we await an event.
Today's price movements
Asian trading hours saw limited price movement due to lack of direction.
The stalemate continues during European trading hours due to a lack of material
Although there was a temporary downward pressure in the early New York trading, buying prevailed thereafter, resulting in a slight rebound.
Background/materials
Dollar buying was curbed as the rise in US interest rates took a breather
Investors hold off on new positions ahead of preliminary eurozone GDP figures and ECB meeting
Caution towards the FOMC spreads across all markets, making it difficult to determine direction
Technical Memo (Short Term)
In the short term, the price will continue to consolidate around 1.0650-1.0750
The moving averages are converging and waiting for a breakout.
The RSI is in the neutral zone and shows no signs of overheating.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
In the medium term, the range will continue with the lower 1.06 range as support on the downside.
The price continues to fluctuate around the 200-day moving average, and signs of a trend reversal are still limited.
Bollinger Bands are contracting and we need to prepare for expansion after the event.
Impressions
Lacking a clear direction, the reaction after the event will likely determine the next phase.
In the short term, the environment is prone to overreaction to news headlines and interest rate movements.
Prioritize position adjustment, not timing to take risks
Trading Impressions
Mainly short-term rotation within a narrow range
New positions should be decided after checking the initial response after the event.
Set a shallow stop to prepare for the risk of sudden changes before and after the event
Checklist
Check the FOMC statement and the tone of the chairman's remarks
Check out the preliminary eurozone GDP figures and market reaction
Focus on short-term changes linked to US interest rates and the dollar index
Looking back
During European trading hours, the pound was sold off due to a fall in the yield on 10-year UK government bonds, and in New York, the rise in US interest rates accelerated the downward pressure.
summary
In the early stages, selling was driven by falling UK interest rates, but from the middle onwards, pressure for a stronger dollar was also seen.
There was some buying back towards the end of the day, but the recovery was slow and the market closed below last week's low.
Overall, interest rate differential awareness is dominant over risk appetite
Today's price movements
Tokyo trading started with little movement, but selling took over early in the European session
During New York time, the market expanded downwards as US interest rates recovered.
Short covering led to a slight recovery towards the end of the day, but the upside was limited
Background/materials
UK 10-year bond yields fell, raising speculation of an early rate cut
Optimism regarding the US-China summit supported risk sentiment, but the exchange rate reaction was limited
A rebound in US long-term interest rates supported the dollar and limited the pound's recovery.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
In the short term, the downward trend will continue with 1.2650 as the upper limit
Clearly breaking below 1.2550, hitting last week's lowest level
RSI is approaching oversold territory, but rebound momentum is limited
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
In the medium term, the price will fall below the rising trend line since August
The lower 1.2500 range is seen as a support zone for the time being.
The moving average line is crossing over, making it easy for sell-offs to occur.
Impressions
The decline in UK interest rates is likely to affect market sentiment, and the strong dollar is a double factor in the weak market trend
As the market is adjusting before a risk event, caution is needed against a sudden rebound.
When there is a lack of information, technically driven trading tends to increase.
Trading Impressions
Maintain a sell-on-rebound stance and keep a close eye on trends after the event
In the short term, prioritize checking for a rebound rather than trying to take advantage of price fluctuations.
Thorough risk management and moderate position size
Checklist
Check UK interest rate trends and the direction of US long-term interest rates
Check the fluctuation range of the dollar index before the FOMC
Keep an eye on whether the short-term support line (around 1.2500) can be maintained
Looking back
The market remained directionless from Tokyo to European trading hours, but the Australian dollar was bought back during New York trading hours as the rise in US interest rates took a breather.
summary
A wait-and-see attitude is prevalent ahead of the Australian CPI, with little movement in Asia and Europe
The Australian dollar rose to a lower low as dollar buying retreated due to a pause in the rise in US interest rates.
The market remained firm in the final stages, closing slightly in positive territory.
Today's price movements
Asian trading hours saw a lack of direction due to a range-bound trading pattern, with short-term investors dominating the market.
European trading hours also saw limited price movement as investors waited to see what the Australian CPI would be like
In New York, there was a correction sale of the dollar, and risk appetite supported the Australian dollar
Background/materials
Anticipation for the US-China summit supports market sentiment
Speculation over monetary policy outlook is mixed ahead of Australian CPI release the next day
The trend in US interest rates was key to the overall dollar market, and the Australian dollar was also affected.
Technical Memo (Short Term)
In the short term, trading will mainly be in the range of 0.6520 to 0.6570
Moving averages converge and there is a lack of direction
The RSI is in the neutral zone and shows no signs of overheating.
Technical Memo (Mid-term)
In the medium term, the range will remain firm with support in the low 0.65 range
The price has not been able to clearly exceed 0.66, and the upper limit is also a concern.
Volatility may increase after the event
Impressions
Although trading was quiet before the event, the market remained sensitive to fluctuations in dollar interest rates
A period in which medium- to long-term interest rate and economic themes take priority over short-term factors
It is noteworthy that the stock has remained resilient even during times of risk aversion.
Trading Impressions
Be cautious about new entries before the Australian CPI announcement
Maintain a dip-buying stance in the short term, but restructure your strategy after the event is over.
Pay attention to the time overlap with the FOMC and US indicators, and prioritize taking profits when volatility increases
Checklist
Check the Australian CPI results and the market's interest rate pricing
Keep a close eye on US interest rates and the dollar index
Check for changes in risk appetite (stocks and China-related news)
FX Journal