Market Summary

The previous day, the Japanese and US finance ministers met to discuss currency trends, leading to yen buying.

However, at the lower end, actual demand and short-term investors also bought back, limiting the downward pressure.

With the FOMC meeting coming up today, we expect calm price movements, mainly due to position adjustments.

Expected range

Expected range is around 149.00 to 150.40

With the FOMC statement coming up, it's difficult to determine the direction, and a thick order is expected on both the upside and downside.

tactics

Before the event, we will focus on range rotation and short-term sell-offs.

Consider buying on dips when prices fall sharply, but avoid carrying over positions

trigger

Breaking above 150.40 may lead to stronger short-term buying in the upward direction

A break below 149.00 could trigger stops, increasing yen buying momentum

Wait-and-see sentiment prevails during Tokyo time, with attention focused on the FOMC statement (early next morning) during New York time

Nullification Conditions

If the FOMC issues a dovish message and dollar selling accelerates, accompanied by a decline in US interest rates

Conversely, if the statement turns out to be hawkish and dollar buying intensifies on the back of rising US interest rates, the range scenario will collapse.

Risk Event

FOMC policy interest rate announcement and Chairman Powell's press conference

US Employment Cost Index

Statements by Bank of Japan officials and comments from foreign exchange authorities

Position Management

Considering event risk, position size is limited to less than half of normal size

The target for taking profits is around 150.30, and the target for cutting losses is below 149.00.

Keep your position as light as possible before the announcement

Checklist

Check for changes in wording in the FOMC statement (whether there are hints at the timing of a rate cut)

Keep an eye on US interest rates and dollar index reactions

Check whether there are any statements from foreign exchange authorities or reports related to intervention.

Market Summary

The previous day's market continued to lack direction from European time to US time.

After a downward pressure in the early New York session, buying came in and the euro closed slightly higher.

With the FOMC meeting and preliminary Eurozone GDP figures today, and the ECB meeting the next day, we expect to see a focus on position adjustments.

Expected range

Expected range is around 1.0650-1.0750

Before the event, the price is likely to remain within a range, and both the upside and downside are expected to be heavy.

tactics

In the short term, the basic strategy is to rotate within a range, and consider buying on dips when the price suddenly drops.

Lighten your position before the event and prioritize checking the direction after the indicator is released

Short-term traders focus on US interest rate reaction during New York time

trigger

A break above 1.0750 could lead to increased buying

Risk of dollar buying dominating if 1.0650 is broken

Fluctuations widen triggered by the Eurozone GDP preliminary figures (18:00) and the FOMC statement (early morning the following day)

Nullification Conditions

If the FOMC delivers a dovish message and dollar selling accelerates

If eurozone GDP falls far short of expectations and economic concerns accelerate euro selling

If there is no clear direction and the price continues to remain in a narrow range, return the strategy to neutral.

Risk Event

Eurozone GDP preliminary figures (3rd quarter)

FOMC policy interest rate announcement and Chairman Powell's press conference

The next day's ECB Governing Council meeting

Position Management

Before the event, we recommend position sizes of 50% or less than usual.

The target for taking profits is around 1.0740, and the target for cutting losses is below 1.0650.

Set shallow orders to prepare for sudden changes after the index is released

Checklist

Eurozone GDP preliminary figures and market reaction

Keep an eye on the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's tone

Check US interest rate trends and the reaction of the dollar index

Market Summary

The previous day saw a sharp sell-off of the pound due to a combination of a fall in the yield on 10-year UK government bonds, optimism about the US-China summit, and a rise in US long-term interest rates.

Although there was some buying back towards the end of the day, the recovery was slow and the stock closed below last week's low.

With the FOMC meeting coming up today, we expect calm price movements, mainly due to position adjustments.

Expected range

Expected range is around 1.2420-1.2550

While caution remains over the downside, the market is prone to short-term adjustment buying.

tactics

In the short term, we will focus on selling on pullbacks, while focusing on range trading before the index.

Consider buying on dips during a sudden drop, but avoid carrying over positions from before the event.

The direction will likely become clear mainly after the FOMC announcement.

trigger

A break above 1.2550 is likely to lead to stronger short-term buying.

If the price breaks 1.2420, selling will accelerate and the trend of searching for lower prices may resume.

From European trading hours to US trading hours, keep a close eye on US interest rate trends and changes in risk appetite

Nullification Conditions

If the FOMC delivers a dovish message and dollar selling continues

If a hawkish stance re-emerges in UK macro data and statements

If the price does not clearly break below the most recent low from a technical standpoint, we will temporarily ease our downward pressure warning.

Risk Event

FOMC policy interest rate announcement and Chairman Powell's press conference

Final US GDP and employment data

Statements by UK Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) officials

Position Management

Considering the risk before the event, position size is limited to 50% or less of normal size

Take profits around 1.2530, stop loss set at breaking below 1.2420

Focus on short-term trading until a clear direction emerges

Checklist

Check the FOMC statement and the tone of the chairman's remarks

Keep an eye on US interest rates and dollar index reactions

Check out the movement of UK bond yields and the stock market's risk appetite

Market Summary

The previous day, expectations for the US-China summit supported risk appetite, and the Australian dollar was dominated by buying against the US dollar.

The pause in the rise in US interest rates also helped the market maintain its strength towards the end of the day.

With the FOMC meeting coming up today, we expect calm price movements, mainly due to position adjustments.

Expected range

Expected range is around 0.6500 to 0.6570

It is likely that profit-taking selling at the top and buying on dips at the bottom will continue to intersect.

tactics

The basic strategy is to buy on dips and respond by checking the direction after the event has passed.

Prioritize short-term rotation over building new positions before the FOMC meeting

Asian hours: Wait-and-see approach, strategy determined based on price movements in Europe and beyond

trigger

A breakout above 0.6570 could strengthen buying momentum

A break below 0.6500 risks deepening short-term correction

Keep an eye on US interest rate trends and the reaction of the dollar index

Nullification Conditions

If the FOMC makes hawkish statements and dollar buying resumes

If Australian economic indicators or China-related news increase risk aversion

If the price cannot technically break above the most recent high, the uptrend scenario will be rejected.

Risk Event

FOMC policy interest rate announcement and Chairman Powell's press conference

US economic indicators (preliminary GDP figures and ADP employment statistics)

China-related news (economic stimulus measures and official comments)

Position Management

Before the event, we recommend position sizes of 50% or less of normal.

The target for taking profits is around 0.6560, and the target for cutting losses is below 0.6490.

Until the event passes, short-term trading will be the basis, and restructuring will be carried out after confirming the direction.

Checklist

Check the FOMC statement and the tone of the chairman's remarks

Keep an eye on US interest rates and dollar index movements

Check risk trends in the Chinese market and commodity prices

Looking back

In the early morning hours, the US Treasury Secretary's comments prompted yen buying, but by Tokyo time yen selling prevailed, and dollar buying intensified after the FOMC meeting.

summary

The dollar remained firm as the US Federal Reserve reaffirmed its tightening stance.

Meanwhile, expectations of policy changes in Japan have receded, and the yen has continued to recover slowly.

The market was dominated by position adjustments, with an eye on US interest rates and the Bank of Japan meeting.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, yen buying took the lead following the remarks by the Finance Minister, and the dollar/yen rate rebounded slightly afterwards as investors trimmed their positions.

In Europe, a wait-and-see attitude awaiting the FOMC spread, and dollar buying intensified after the event in New York.

At the end of the day, the yen was sold off slightly due to rising US interest rates.

Background/materials

There is a growing view that the US Federal Reserve will maintain its stance on controlling inflation and will not rush the pace of interest rate cuts.

US interest rates remained firm and the dollar remained resilient against major currencies.

On the Japanese side, the yen was weighed down by a decline in expectations of policy adjustment ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The upside was heavy at the previous day's highs, and the short-term support line was in focus on the downside.

In the short term, the price continues to move within a range with no clear direction.

The immediate focus will be whether the price will reach a new high after the event.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

While the upward trend is maintained in the medium term, the momentum is slowing.

The gap between the major moving averages is narrowing, and the possibility of a cross-holding is also being considered.

If the support level is broken, it is necessary to be aware of the risk of the correction widening.

Impressions

The day was full of mixed emotions and lacked direction.

The reaction after the FOMC meeting was limited, and it seems the market had already factored in a certain amount of the price.

The next main topic is shifting to the Governor's remarks after the Bank of Japan meeting.

Trading Impressions

There was a strong tendency to wait for the event to pass, and short-term trading was limited.

The dollar buying immediately after the FOMC meeting was temporary, and there was a move to prioritize profit taking.

With the weekend approaching, many investors are taking light positions, and trading remains cautious.

Checklist

Check the trends of US interest rates and the dollar index

Check the tone of the Governor's remarks after the Bank of Japan meeting

Will yen-buying pressure continue in early Tokyo trading?

Looking back

Selling of the euro was dominant from Tokyo through European trading hours, and after the FOMC meeting, dollar buying increased, causing the euro to trade with a heavy upper limit.

summary

In the period leading up to the FOMC meeting, the focus was on position adjustments, and the overall direction was limited.

The dollar remained firm as the US Federal Reserve's stance was perceived as leaning towards tightening.

This, combined with the slowdown in prices in the eurozone, has limited the euro's upside.

Today's price movements

During Asian trading hours, selling of the euro took the lead, and the euro tested the lower end of the range in early European trading.

During New York time, there was a temporary buying back due to wait-and-see sentiment ahead of the FOMC meeting, but after the announcement, dollar buying became dominant again.

Overall, the day was centered around waiting for the event and reacting to the results.

Background/materials

The US Federal Reserve's indication that interest rates will remain high led to increased dollar buying in response to interest rate differentials.

In the eurozone, weak economic indicators and slowing inflation are impacting policy stance

The recovery in risk appetite was limited, and the dollar continued to be preferred as a safe haven currency.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the trend of selling on rebounds continued, and there was concern that the upper limit would be cut back.

Intermittent buying back was also observed near support, confirming the firmness of the lower limit.

The short-term moving average has flattened out, forming a range with little sense of direction.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the downward trend will continue, with some adjustments to recover.

The gap with the major moving averages is narrowing, and the reaction after the event will determine whether the trend will continue or reverse.

The environment remains one in which selling pressure is likely to rebound at high prices.

Impressions

Active trading was refrained during the FOMC meeting, and volatility increased temporarily after the announcement.

Although the dollar continues to dominate the market overall, there has been a temporary buying back of the euro depending on the factors.

The price movement remains uncertain, and attention is focused on how the market sentiment will change after the event.

Trading Impressions

The focus was on position adjustments before the announcement, and the reaction of short-term investors was noticeable after the event.

The price range was narrow, and it seemed like many investors prioritized taking profits.

Taking a light position was effective in preparation for sudden changes when volatility increased.

Checklist

Check the trends in US interest rates and the dollar index after the FOMC meeting

Check out eurozone inflation figures and the tone of ECB officials' comments

Observe whether the upper and lower limits of the short-term range are broken

Looking back

Selling of the pound was dominant from the beginning of the European session, and after the FOMC announcement, buying of the dollar intensified, pushing the pound down.

summary

Concerns over slowing UK inflation and economic slowdown led to a slow recovery for the pound.

The FOMC confirmed the tightening stance of the US Federal Reserve, and the dollar remained firm.

The market rediscovered the interest rate differential between the UK and the US, and trading remained cautious amid a lack of direction.

Today's price movements

Asian trading started with little movement, but pound selling prevailed after entering Europe.

During New York time, a wait-and-see mood prevailed ahead of the FOMC meeting, and dollar buying prevailed after the announcement.

The pound ended trading at the end of the day slightly lower on the back of rising US interest rates.

Background/materials

In the UK, inflation continued to slow and growth indicators were also sluggish, leading to speculation of monetary easing.

In the US, the dollar was bought broadly as the Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance.

This, combined with the risk aversion trend, has contributed to limiting the pound's upside.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the trend of sell-offs continued to dominate, confirming the heavy upper limit.

There was intermittent buying back near support, and there were times when the price hesitated to fall.

The major moving averages are trending downwards, and the market appears to be in a range with no clear direction.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The downward trend continues in the medium term, and even in a recovery phase, the upside is likely to be limited.

The gap with the major moving averages has narrowed, and the price continues to accumulate energy.

In the medium term, UK interest rates are likely to be a factor influencing the trend.

Impressions

The overall market was quiet ahead of the FOMC meeting, but the dollar's dominance was reaffirmed after the announcement.

The pound's fundamental weakness was a concern, and buying momentum was limited.

Market interest is expected to be focused on indicators and key figures later in the week.

Trading Impressions

Trading was centered around position adjustments before the FOMC meeting, with short-term price fluctuations prevailing.

After the announcement, the one-way trend temporarily strengthened, but profits were quickly taken and the reaction was limited.

Overall, participants were seen to be prioritizing risk management by keeping their positions light.

Checklist

Check the trends of US interest rates and the dollar index

Check out UK inflation data and BOE key figures

Observing changes in market sentiment after the FOMC meeting

Looking back

Australian dollar buying was dominant from Tokyo to European hours, but after the FOMC announcement, dollar buying intensified and the Australian dollar was pushed down.

summary

Australian inflation data remained resilient, providing temporary support for the Australian dollar

However, dollar buying took over as the US Federal Reserve maintained its tightening stance.

Overall, prices continued to move within a range while waiting for events.

Today's price movements

Australian dollar buying led the Asian session following inflation-related results

In Europe, buying activity subsided, and expectations of rising US interest rates limited the upside.

During New York time, a wait-and-see attitude spread ahead of the FOMC meeting, and dollar buying after the announcement pushed the Australian dollar down.

Background/materials

Australian price data was mixed, raising speculation about the RBA's policy decisions.

Weak Chinese economic indicators led to a slight decline in buying of commodity-related currencies.

The US has confirmed its stance of maintaining high interest rates, which has limited the Australian dollar's upside.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the range was centered around the lower 0.66 range, and the upper limit was confirmed to be heavy.

On the downside, buying is occurring in the upper 0.65 range, and a certain level of stability is being recognized.

The short-term moving average remained flat, and the lack of direction continued.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the market is in a correction phase from an uptrend, and the trend of selling on rebounds continues to dominate.

The gap with the major moving average is narrowing, and the market is searching for a balance point.

The Australian-US interest rate differential remains a medium-term market theme

Impressions

The Australian dollar saw temporary buying due to inflation indicators, but after the FOMC meeting, the dollar dominated the market.

This was a time when the fundamental differences between Australia and the US were easily noticed.

The market remains uncertain as investors wait for the next piece of news.

Trading Impressions

Buybacks during Asian trading hours were limited, and short-term selling dominated after the European session.

Immediately after the FOMC meeting, the Australian dollar was pushed down by temporary dollar-buying momentum.

Overall, trading was limited to short-term price fluctuations and focused on low-risk trading.

Checklist

See how markets are pricing in the next RBA meeting

Check US interest rate trends and dollar index trends

Observing changes in Chinese economic indicators and resource prices