Market Summary

The Bank of Japan meeting passed without incident the previous day, and the trend toward a weaker yen was in focus.

US interest rates remain high, leading to a dollar-buying environment.

Today is the weekend and the end of the month, so flows, including rebalancing, are likely to intersect.

The market is unlikely to be biased in one direction, and the focus will be on the balance between the heavy upside and adjustment pressure.

Expected range

The lower limit is near the previous day's low, and the upper limit is the range up to the most recent high.

The index is likely to move in tandem with US long-term interest rates and stock price trends, and is expected to fluctuate moderately throughout the day.

If there are no major indicators or statements from important figures, the market is likely to remain calm.

tactics

While buying on dips will prevail in the short term, we will respond flexibly while keeping an eye on end-of-month flows.

Prioritize taking profits near turning points and be cautious about following entries

As the price tests the upper limit of the range, there is room to consider selling on the rebound after a rebound is confirmed.

trigger

Focus on US interest rate fluctuations during overseas hours and end-of-month adjustments in New York

The key to breaking out above the threshold is if the movement above the threshold is confirmed, and the key to breaking out below that is the selling pressure in the early stages of Europe.

Tokyo hours are dominated by actual demand flows, and the sense of direction tends to be limited

Nullification Conditions

When the price clearly falls below the threshold and there is no buying back reaction

US interest rates have fallen sharply, leading to a shift in market sentiment towards dollar selling.

When unexpected position liquidation due to month-end flow progresses

Risk Event

Results of US economic indicators (employment-related, inflation indicators, etc.)

Comments by the government and the Bank of Japan on foreign exchange and price trends

The impact of weekend and month-end capital flows and hedge adjustments

Position Management

New entries should be made in small lots and avoided during times of low liquidity.

Take profits gradually just before the milestone, and avoid excessive growth.

Stop losses should be decided only after clearly confirming that the most recent support/resistance level has been broken

Checklist

Regularly monitor the direction of US long-term interest rates and the stock market

Keep an eye on price movements during European hours and rebalancing trends during New York hours

Check the statements of Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance officials and whether there are any intervention observations

Market Summary

The previous day saw dollar buying dominate due to rising US long-term interest rates, pushing the euro downwards.

The ECB Governing Council confirmed interest rates would remain unchanged, and the lack of surprises was seen as a sign that all the news had been released.

As the weekend and the end of the month overlap, actual demand and rebalancing flows are likely to influence the market.

The market is likely to remain in a state of flux in the short term, with no clear direction.

Expected range

The lower limit is near the previous day's low, and the upper limit is near the most recent high.

Due to the backdrop of US interest rates and stock market trends, prices are expected to remain within a narrow range.

Traffic is expected to remain strong until clear breakthrough material emerges

tactics

The basic policy is to focus on selling on rallies, while being cautious of short-term rebounds.

Buybacks are likely to occur at the lower end of the price range, so respond cautiously rather than following the momentum.

Entry will be made in stages, anticipating sudden changes before and after the index announcement.

trigger

The US PCE deflator results and US Treasury yield trends are key for the short term

Beware of buybacks during European hours and flow changes during New York hours

If the price clearly breaks above the milestone, it will undergo a short-term correction, but if it breaks below that, there is a possibility of selling pressure rekindling.

Nullification Conditions

Maintain the support zone, and if the rebound trend strengthens, temporarily withdraw the sell-on-return policy.

If US interest rates fall and dollar selling becomes dominant

If you over-follow transient movements due to flow factors, prioritize position adjustments.

Risk Event

US PCE deflator released

Reports on statements by important figures and monetary policy

Sudden flows due to position adjustments at the end of the month and on the weekend

Position Management

Keep position size small and consider increasing or decreasing it after the event has passed.

Profit taking is divided before the milestone, and loss cutting is determined when the price falls below the most recent upper or lower limit.

Reduce leverage and limit risk during times of increased volatility

Checklist

Check out US PCE data and interest rate reaction

Observe whether there will be any euro buybacks during European hours

Pay attention to rebalancing and fund month-end flows

Market Summary

The previous day, dollar buying was dominant due to the rise in US interest rates, and the pound was testing a downward trend.

A day of dollar-led price movements continued amid a lack of material in the UK

As the weekend and the end of the month overlap, flows due to actual demand and rebalancing are likely to increase.

It is difficult to determine a clear direction, and price movements tend to be sporadic in the short term.

Expected range

The lower limit is the previous day's low, and the upper limit is near the most recent high.

US interest rates and stock price trends are expected to determine the range of fluctuations

Price movements tend to be limited due to upcoming major events

tactics

The basic policy is to focus on selling on rallies and be cautious about short-term buying on dips.

Prioritize taking profits near turning points and avoid pursuing too deeply

Refrain from new entries during times when liquidity is likely to be low, and wait until the reaction is confirmed before acting.

trigger

The focus will be on the flow shift during European trading hours and price movements before and after the release of US indexes

A breakout will be due to a combination of a fall in US interest rates and rising stock prices, while a breakout will be due to risk aversion and continued dollar strength.

Be wary of fluctuations related to rebalancing before and after the London FIX

Nullification Conditions

If the price remains low and the rebound continues, temporarily withdraw the sell-on-rebound strategy.

If US interest rates stabilize and dollar buying slows, we expect the dollar to return to a range.

If the pound-buying sentiment clearly strengthens during European trading hours

Risk Event

US PCE deflator released

UK monetary policy comments and reports on next week's central bank meeting

Capital movements and hedge adjustments typical of the end of the month and weekend

Position Management

Set small lot sizes and consider restructuring after the event

Profit taking is divided just before the milestone, and loss cutting is executed when the price clearly falls below the most recent upper and lower limits.

Reduce open positions and limit risk when volatility rises

Checklist

Check the dollar index and US interest rate movements after the release of US PCE data

Observe the flow changes during European hours and the direction before and after the London FIX

Check for reports and comments from key figures ahead of next week's BOE meeting

Market Summary

The previous day saw dollar buying dominate on the back of rising US interest rates, limiting the Australian dollar's upside.

The buying back caused by the strong Australian CPI results has run its course, and the momentum of the Australian dollar's rise has subsided

China-related news and fluctuations in resource prices are seen as weighing on the market.

The end of the month coincides with the weekend, making price movements due to flow factors more noticeable.

Expected range

The lower limit is the previous day's low, and the upper limit is near the most recent high.

It tends to be linked to the direction of US interest rates and the stock market, and fluctuates mainly within a range.

With the event coming up, stable price movements are expected in the short term.

tactics

The basic policy is to focus on selling on rallies and respond carefully to short-term rebounds.

If you are aiming for a pullback, check the momentum and time of the rebound before entering.

Don't follow the noisy price movements before and after the event, but prioritize waiting until a sense of direction emerges

trigger

US interest rate trends and the US PCE deflator will determine the continuation of dollar buying

Changes in the Chinese market and resource prices are also attracting attention as short-term triggers

Be wary of fluctuations due to month-end flows around the London FIX

Nullification Conditions

If the price remains at the lower end and Australian dollar buying becomes dominant, the sell-on-return strategy will be temporarily withdrawn.

If US interest rates fall and dollar selling intensifies

If positive news related to China leads to widespread buying of the Australian dollar

Risk Event

US PCE deflator released

Official comments and monetary policy outlook ahead of the RBA meeting

Reports on Chinese economic statistics and the government's policy stance

Position Management

Set position size conservatively and increase or decrease it after checking the direction after the event.

Divide profit taking just before the milestone, and set stop loss based on the most recent upper and lower limits.

When price movements become volatile, reduce open positions to limit risk

Checklist

Check US PCE data and US interest rate reaction

Monitor China-related news and resource price trends

Keep an eye on the impact of month-end flows around the London FIX

Looking back

Selling of the yen dominated from Tokyo to Europe, but it was unable to surpass the previous day's high, and in New York, a wait-and-see attitude prevailed, resulting in a lack of direction.

summary

Even after the Bank of Japan event, the dollar remained strong and the yen weakened, but the upside was limited

During New York time, investors tended to wait and see for US interest rate trends, resulting in little movement overall.

As the end of the month coincided with the weekend, price movements were limited to corrections and flow-driven movements.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, yen selling prevailed and the market rose gradually

During European trading hours, the market attempted to break through the previous day's high but stalled.

In New York, the price range was limited as US long-term interest rates stabilized, and prices remained flat.

Background/materials

After the Bank of Japan confirmed that it would keep its policy unchanged, there was little additional material and the reaction subsided

US interest rate hikes slow dollar buying momentum

There were occasional temporary movements due to end-of-month rebalancing and actual demand flows.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The price near the previous day's high was perceived as resistance and fell back

The short-term moving average is flat and lacks direction.

While buying was easy at the dip, follow-up buying was limited.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The trend of a strong dollar and a weak yen continues, but momentum has slowed somewhat

Major support is being maintained and no reversal of the trend is being confirmed.

Over the medium term, the differential in US interest rates and policy stance remains supportive

Impressions

It seems that the major factors have been resolved and we are now in a period where we are searching for the next direction.

Due to factors including the end of the month and the weekend, price movements were limited, but the market was susceptible to flow.

Trading Impressions

There was no momentum in chasing higher prices, and there were times in the short term when there was a risk of selling on pullbacks.

Although there is still a desire to buy on dips, many people are cautious about following suit.

Checklist

Check trends in US interest rates and government bond auctions

Beware of month-end and weekend flow imbalances

Be aware of the battle between major support and the previous day's high

Looking back

There was a lack of direction from Tokyo to Europe, and selling intensified in New York, resulting in a day that ended at the lower end of the market.

summary

Weak price indicators in the eurozone and expectations of an early interest rate cut weighed on the upside.

After the release of the US inflation indicators, dollar buying prevailed, and the temporary recovery was limited.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, prices remained in small fluctuations, and a wait-and-see attitude continued.

After European trading hours, the price gradually became more limited, and fell further in New York, falling below the previous day's low.

Although the price subsequently declined, it did not rebound significantly and ended trading at a low level.

Background/materials

Eurozone inflation indicators fell short of expectations, leading market expectations for future policy interest rates to lean slightly more accommodative.

US personal consumption and price-related indicators were generally within expected ranges, and US long-term interest rates were on a downward trend, leading to brief periods of dollar selling.

However, the weakness of the euro prevailed, limiting the recovery.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

On the hourly chart, the downward trend continued, and the price continued to be unable to break above the key resistance zone.

The rebound after the new low was limited by the 200MA, and no clear signs of a trend reversal were observed.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

On the 4-hour chart, the trend of lower highs and lows continues, and even in an uptrend, there is a tendency for sell-offs to be anticipated.

On the daily chart, the 20 EMA is seen as an upper resistance point, and downward pressure remains.

Impressions

Despite attempts to recover both in terms of information and charts, the momentum did not continue, making it a difficult market for buyers to move forward.

On the other hand, rather than a one-sided sell-off, there were many situations where it was difficult to determine the direction as the market reacted to each indicator.

Trading Impressions

During the recovery phase, investors were conscious of entering the market while checking the momentum of selling, but the price range was limited.

Even when chasing lower prices, it was necessary to be careful of rebounds at each milestone, and position management was important in many situations.

Checklist

Check whether the recovery after the important indicator is weak.

Check the volume and candlestick shape around milestones.

Continue to monitor interest rate trends in the US and Europe and bond market reactions.

Looking back

Little movement continued from Tokyo to Europe, and as New York time approached, selling became dominant and the market fell slightly below the previous day's low.

summary

Although there was a long period of time where there was little sense of direction, there was a temporary downward pressure during New York time.

After testing the lower end, there was buying back and the closing price recovered slightly to end trading.

Today's price movements

In the early stages, prices remained within a narrow range, and the market took a wait-and-see stance.

Selling intensified during New York hours, causing the market to temporarily fall, but the market began to recover towards the end of the day.

On the daily chart, a small body with wicks remained, limiting the sense of direction.

Background/materials

The upside was limited due to concerns about the UK's slowing economic growth and a cautious view on finances.

Meanwhile, in the US, views on monetary policy were mixed, with the dollar's strength fluctuating intermittently.

The material itself lacked novelty, and the market was in a waiting mood for clues.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

On the daily chart, there are wicks on both the upper and lower ends, making the shape lack a sense of direction.

In the short term, there is a tendency to notice a test of lower prices, but there are also signs of a recovery after breaking below the lows.

The deviation from the moving average is not large, and the short-term trend is unclear.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the market is continuing to adjust from the high range, and there is still concern that a sell-off may occur.

The price continues to fight around key support areas, and no major trend reversal has been confirmed.

The price continues to move within a range, and the sense of medium-term consolidation is strengthening.

Impressions

A lack of material and a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the weekend meant that the day lacked any positive clues.

Although the market tried to move downward, the momentum was limited and it was impressive that the market did not lean too much in the selling direction.

The entire market appears to be searching for the next step.

Trading Impressions

Although there was some movement to follow suit after the price fell below its low, the price rebounded quickly, making it difficult for short-term investors.

It was an environment where the trend direction was difficult to determine and unreasonable positions were likely to lead to risk.

I feel like it would have been more effective to maintain a clear attitude of waiting for a break.

Checklist

Have you checked the schedule of important indicators and important speeches?

Do you know your key support and resistance levels?

Are your position sizes and risk management reasonable?

Looking back

Although selling was ahead from Tokyo to Europe, the previous day's low was not broken, and in New York, prices remained in a small, directionless range.

summary

The resilience of the US dollar and concerns about the Chinese economy weighed on the Australian dollar, and although it tried to move lower it was unable to break through.

The market was largely waiting for the next piece of information, and it was difficult to see a clear direction throughout the day.

Today's price movements

Selling of the Australian dollar became dominant from the early hours of Tokyo trading, and the dollar attempted to move downwards.

In Europe, the decline stopped near the previous day's low, and then there was a mix of selling and buying.

In New York, the price range was limited while investors were assessing US interest rates and stock price trends.

Background/materials

Expectations of high US interest rates and a firm US dollar kept the Australian dollar in check.

Uncertainty over Chinese economic indicators and resource prices dampened Australian dollar buying momentum.

In Australia, expectations of an interest rate cut have receded somewhat, but concerns about an economic slowdown remain.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The area around the previous day's low was seen as support, and the price was not able to clearly break through, leading to a rebound.

The upside was heavy around the short-term moving average and the rebound high, and there were scattered instances of selling on the rebound.

Volatility is declining and the market is likely to remain range-bound in the short term.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

It has been range-bound for several weeks and continues to lack direction.

The medium-term moving average is moving sideways and there are no clear signs of a trend reversal.

The next focus will be on whether the price will break through the upper or lower limit of the range, and the market is paying close attention to this.

Impressions

The market seemed to react slowly to the information and was waiting for the next piece of information to make a decision.

Although there is a lack of direction, I feel it is worth noting that there is awareness of the firmness of the lower end.

Trading Impressions

In the short term, neither the up nor downsides were able to rise, and there were many occasions when we had to focus on trading within a limited price range.

The day was dominated by sellers closing out short of support and small buybacks.

Checklist

Maintaining key support

Will there be any changes in the trends of US interest rates or the US dollar index?

Are there any new developments in China-related indicators or risk trends?