Market Summary

Although dollar buying was dominant against the backdrop of strong US indicators, profit-taking was also mixed in at high levels, resulting in a lack of direction.

In Japan, there are few changes in monetary policy and few reasons to buy the yen, while caution over comments made by authorities is likely to keep the market from rising.

The previous day, the yen strengthened during Tokyo time, but during European and American time, the dollar strengthened again in response to US indicators, resulting in price fluctuations.

Expected range

We expect the yen to fluctuate mainly between the low 153 yen range and the mid 154 yen range.

The lower end is likely to be focused on the level that was considered a potential support point last week, and if it falls below that level, there is a possibility that adjustments will continue.

The upper limit is near the most recent high, so there is a tendency for selling to occur on a pullback, and more material is needed for a sudden breakout.

tactics

The basic premise is to buy on dips, but avoid chasing high prices and make careful entry decisions.

When nearing a turning point, it is safe to wait for confirmation of a rebound before entering.

Short-term investors are considering a rotation within the range, leaving room to respond to both ups and downs.

trigger

Volatility tends to increase when results related to U.S. unemployment insurance and labor productivity deviate from expectations.

If there is a clear movement that breaks through the milestone in the morning in Tokyo or early in Europe, there will be a tendency for the market to follow suit.

If it is confirmed that US long-term interest rates continue to rise, the trend of buying dollars is likely to intensify.

Nullification Conditions

When the price clearly falls below the level that was most recently considered a potential support point and the recovery is slow.

When selling pressure increases at high prices and the downward trend continues.

If US interest rates fall and the factors for buying the dollar weaken, a review of tactics will be necessary.

Risk Event

Number of initial unemployment insurance claims in the US.

US labor productivity and unit labor costs.

Statements by foreign exchange authorities and sudden geopolitical news.

Position Management

The basic strategy is to use small lots within the expected range and consider taking profits at each milestone.

Stop losses as soon as the price clearly breaks through the potential support point.

During periods when consecutive indicator results are in between, consider reducing positions or temporarily withdrawing.

Checklist

Will US interest rates continue to rise?

Price movements and volume reactions around milestones

Whether the authorities have made any statements to warn against a weaker yen

Market Summary

In Europe, the market continues to look for new factors, with investors waiting for an improvement in German orders and comments from key ECB officials.

In the US, a wait-and-see attitude is growing ahead of the release of labor-related indicators and concerns about the outlook for monetary policy.

On the previous day, it was difficult to determine a clear direction, and although the market fluctuated up and down, it remained within a certain level.

Although there is buying back at low prices, the upside is heavy, and the price is trending within a range.

Expected range

The bottom is around early 1.06 to mid 1.06.

The upper limit is around early 1.07 to mid 1.07.

Unless any major news emerges, it is expected to fluctuate within this range.

tactics

Basically, it is handled by rotating the range.

When prices are on the decline, we will pick up the stocks little by little while assessing whether there is room for a rebound.

We will check for any sluggish recovery and consider short-term selling.

trigger

The focus will be on new highs during European trading hours and fluctuations due to the release of indicators during New York trading hours.

If the trend changes based on factors such as the number of new unemployment insurance claims in the United States, a sense of direction may emerge early on.

If the price moves upward, the most recent high will be taken into consideration, and if the price moves downward, there will be a tendency for the price to test the low.

Nullification Conditions

If it settles firmly at a higher level than expected, we will reconsider our sell-on-rebound stance.

On the other hand, if the recovery is weak after breaking down, you should refrain from buying on the downside.

A sudden increase in volatility or material surprises could also lead to a revision of assumptions.

Risk Event

Number of initial unemployment insurance claims in the US.

Statement by a European Central Bank official.

Preliminary figures for U.S. employment and wage-related indicators.

Position Management

The basic principle is to take small positions within the expected range.

When taking profits, use the most recent rebound or recovery level as a guideline and avoid chasing the price too far.

Stop losses are taken quickly based on a clear breakthrough of a milestone.

Checklist

Is there a continuing awareness of the upper and lower limits of the range in price movements during European trading hours?

Has the reaction to the release of US indicators changed the direction?

Are there any changes in market sentiment due to statements by important figures or interest rate trends?

Market Summary

With the Bank of England due to announce its policy soon, the market is lacking direction, and while it is aware of slowing inflation and growth, it continues to wait for further news.

The previous day, there was buying back at the lower end, but the upper end was heavy, and price movements remained small, driven by position adjustments.

Expected range

Around 1.3000 to 1.3200.

Until the policy announcement, it is likely that the market will remain within a range, and the price range is likely to be limited.

tactics

Until the event passes, it is safe to base your strategy on range rotation and keep your positions small in preparation for sudden fluctuations.

The direction will be more easily determined depending on the content of the press conference, so after the announcement we will flexibly switch to selling on rallies or buying on dips.

trigger

On the upside, if there is a clear break above the 1.3150 level, it will be a sign of accelerated short-term buying.

On the downside, downward pressure is likely to intensify if the level remains below 1.3000, and the time of entry into Europe and policy announcements could be a turning point.

Nullification Conditions

If the price continues to move without any sense of direction in the 1.3100 range even after the event and there is no volume, the assumptions of the strategy will likely fall apart.

Also, if there is a sudden fluctuation in either direction that entangles your stop, you will need to review your tactics.

Risk Event

Bank of England policy rate, statement, and vote split.

Statements made at the Governor's press conference regarding the timing of interest rate cuts and inflation outlook.

US unemployment claims and productivity indicators drive dollar interest rates.

Position Management

Before the announcement, we prioritize keeping positions light and not letting unrealized losses accumulate.

After checking the movement after the announcement, the size is adjusted, profit taking is kept short, and stop loss is mechanically executed at a predetermined level.

Checklist

Do the statements and the split in votes suggest a move towards easing?

Will there be strong mention of when interest rates will start to be cut, wages, and prices at the press conference?

Is the trend changing due to interest rates and the dollar's reaction to the US index?

Market Summary

Concerns about economic slowdowns in Australia and China and sluggish resource prices are likely to weigh on the market, while the US is conscious of the tenacity of employment-related factors.

On the previous day, selling of the Australian dollar took the lead in Tokyo, but after the European market, US indicators led to dollar buying, limiting the recovery.

Expected range

The basic view is that prices move from near the previous day's low to near the previous day's high.

The market is prone to temporary fluctuations due to US indicators and statements by important figures, and the upside tends to slow down due to a thick band of selling on rebounds.

tactics

Based on a range rotation leaning towards pullback selling, we will respond in stages by attracting upside.

Anticipate a sudden rebound in the short term, and take profits in small increments

trigger

If the price clearly breaks above the previous day's high in early Europe, we will check for upward growth.

If the initial movement does not continue immediately after the US index and the market falls back, consider resuming selling on the rebound.

Nullification Conditions

The price trend is such that the breakout with substance is confirmed in the higher frame and the price no longer falls at the pullback.

The assumption of a sell-side advantage is undermined by the continued rise supported by volume and headlines.

Risk Event

US employment and unemployment insurance outcomes and their response to interest rates

Statements by important figures and sudden policy headlines

Sudden changes in China-related indicators and resource markets

Position Management

The size is more modest than usual, and the size is further reduced before and after the index.

Place stop loss slightly outside the most recent high, and split profit taking just before the milestone.

Checklist

Will the initial movement after the US data continue or reverse?

Resource prices and China-related headlines

Changes in the sell-back band and trading pattern for higher time frames

Looking back

Selling on the rebound dominated from Tokyo to Europe, and selling intensified during New York time, offsetting the previous day's gains.

summary

While the background to this was the continued high interest rates in the United States and a recovery in risk appetite, caution about the currency in Japan was a factor that held back the recovery.

There were times when the market hesitated to fall at support levels, but selling prevailed during New York time, and the market continued to adjust from the previous day's highs.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, the price gradually fell from the high range, and selling continued into European hours.

During New York trading hours, the price fell below the milestone, widening the decline and there was limited buying back.

Overall, the trend was unanimously downward, and there was a sense of weight on the upside.

Background/materials

US interest rates remained stable, supporting the dollar.

Japanese authorities expressed caution against sudden currency fluctuations, and the risk of intervention remained a concern in the market.

Risk appetite was on the rise in the stock market, and buying of the yen as a safe-haven currency was limited.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The decline temporarily stopped at the support level, but the recovery was weak and the upper limit was cut back.

It remained below the short-term moving average, and even during the recovery phase, there was little momentum to break out above it.

The range of intraday highs and lows was limited, and the selling trend continued in the short term.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, downward pressure increased due to the holding at high prices.

The focus was on breaking through the supporting milestone and testing the next support band.

On the other hand, the medium- to long-term upward trend itself has been maintained, and there are still views that this is a pullback.

Impressions

With a lack of strong news, selling on rebounds prevailed, and it seemed as though the market remained cautious.

What was striking was that rather than a sudden drop, the price gradually fell from the high range, accompanied by adjustments.

Trading Impressions

It seemed that there was a lack of momentum to aim for buying on dips, and there were many situations where selling on rallies was more advantageous.

While it was necessary to enter the market only after confirming a rebound at a turning point, there were also limited opportunities for the market to follow a downward trend.

Checklist

Check for the attack and defense of key support levels.

Check whether there are any reports of official statements or currency intervention.

Make sure the direction is aligned with trends in US interest rates and the stock market.

Looking back

The dollar's upside was kept in check, and buying of the euro continued throughout the day from Tokyo to Europe and New York.

summary

The background to this was that uncertainty about the trade situation had eased and risk appetite had returned to the market as a whole.

Although there was an initial pullback in New York, the downside was limited and the market closed at a high level.

Today's price movements

The euro was gradually bought from Tokyo time onwards, and buying appetite remained strong even in early European trading, pushing the level up.

In New York, there was a temporary adjustment due to selling that appeared to be profit-taking, but it was quickly bought back and remained in the high range until the end of the day.

Background/materials

As uncertainty surrounding US trade policy subsided, demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset weakened somewhat.

In the European market, rising stock prices and stable interest rates were in focus, providing support for the euro.

Although caution remains in the market, there was no sign of any sudden risk aversion.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, an upward trend was in focus, and the market conditions remained favorable for buying at dips.

There was increased trading around the milestone, but downward momentum was limited.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the market is expected to continue its gradual recovery trend, consolidating at lower levels while testing higher levels.

The moving average has gone from flat to slightly upward sloping, giving the impression that the market direction is starting to settle.

Impressions

Rather than being swayed by news, it seems that the market has remained stable due to a combination of buybacks and actual demand.

Although it is not a sudden rise, a certain degree of stability has returned to price movements, and it appears that market participants' caution has eased.

Trading Impressions

Careful buying at dips was likely to be rewarded, but there were also times when chasing the market was a bit difficult to judge.

Since the price cannot fluctuate greatly either up or down, I feel that it was important to manage the levels at which to take profits and cut losses.

Checklist

Have you checked the schedule of important indicators and important speeches?

Do you know the milestone levels and the most recent highs and lows?

Are your position sizes and risk tolerances appropriate?

Looking back

Buying came in from Tokyo, continued in Europe, and closed at a high in New York after some pullbacks.

summary

The pound remained firm despite the Bank of England's policy remaining unchanged and expectations of future interest rate cuts.

Although uncertainty over fiscal policy remains, downward momentum was limited and buying prevailed.

Today's price movements

A gradual upward trend is forming in Tokyo, and buying continues in Europe as well.

There was some profit-taking selling in New York for a while, but the downward pressure was shallow and buying returned.

Background/materials

The Bank of England kept its policy interest rate unchanged, and the close vote raised expectations of a rate cut.

The financial authorities showed a cautious stance on spending and taxation, leaving the market uncertain about the future.

There was a lack of notable news on the US side, and the direction of the dollar was also limited.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The price continued to move in the high range, and the pullback remained relatively shallow before rebounding.

The price maintained its movement above the short-term moving average, indicating strong buying interest.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The price continues to move near the upper limit of the range, and the lack of direction continues.

In the medium term, the support level has not been broken and the trend has not been significantly disrupted.

Impressions

The material was somewhat weighty, but the reaction was limited, suggesting market resistance.

The next direction will depend on the content of policy and fiscal events, so we need to avoid either excessive expectations or pessimism.

Trading Impressions

The pullback was shallow, and the advantage of buying on dips over selling on rallies was emphasized throughout the day.

However, there were times when the team struggled to make progress at key stages, and their judgment was called into question when it came to following suit.

Checklist

Have you seen price reactions after major events?

Did it break new support and resistance levels?

Have you reviewed the consistency of your positions and risk management?

Looking back

Although Tokyo and Europe continued to trade in a slight range, dollar buying prevailed during New York trading hours, preventing the Australian dollar from recovering and pushing it down to near the previous day's level.

summary

The Australian dollar showed little sense of direction, and as New York trading began, it became apparent that it was struggling to move higher.

Although there were times when buying did not continue and the price was pushed back, the lower limit remained at a certain level and the price remained within the range overall.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo and European trading hours, prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and there was a noticeable trend of postponing judgment due to a lack of material.

As New York time approached, the Australian dollar's upside was limited by US interest rate trends and dollar buying back, and at times it fell to near the level seen at the end of the previous day.

Background/materials

There were no notable economic indicators or statements from the Australian side, so factors supporting the Australian dollar were limited.

The US dollar remained resilient due to interest rate fluctuations and a decline in risk appetite, which contributed to a relative slowdown in the Australian dollar's recovery.

Although the bottoming out of resource prices provided some support, market attention was focused on the strength of the dollar.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the market stagnated at a level where prices were likely to rise, making it prone to selling on rebounds.

On the downside, the price is hesitant to fall below the most recent low range and is waiting for a clear break.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The highs have continued to fall over the course of several days, and in the medium term, there is concern that the upper limit will be heavy during the recovery phase.

The price is settling into a range of holdings around the central price range, and developments continue to explore the direction.

Impressions

Overall it was a quiet day, but as the weakening during New York time showed, it seemed unlikely that the Australian dollar alone would be able to sustain its rebound.

There is room for the market to move in one direction depending on the trends in the US dollar and interest rates, so there is still an atmosphere of waiting for new information.

Trading Impressions

Buying does not continue at the upper limit of the range and there is a tendency for the price to fall back, so in the short term it seemed effective to wait until the price had risen.

Although the price has been able to avoid falling below its lows, it seems necessary to be conscious of risk management and not be biased towards buying.

Checklist

Check the trends of US interest rates and the dollar index

Pay attention to changes in Australian indexes and resource prices

Check whether the most recent low price range and the return high price have been updated.