Market Summary

Today, there is a possibility of reduced liquidity due to the US holiday, and the dollar/yen was bought during Tokyo time, once again approaching last week's highs.

The previous day, buying continued from Tokyo into European trading hours, and although growth stagnated during US trading hours, the market closed at a high level.

On the material side, with the US indexes approaching a peak, there is a growing sense of caution and investors appear cautious about the emergence of clear trends.

Expected range

Lower limit = around 153.50 to 154.00 / Upper limit = around 154.50 to 155.00.

tactics

While keeping the price in a range, we will mainly focus on buying on dips. If there is no clear movement to break above the high, we will also consider selling on rallies near the upper limit.

trigger

Breakout: Clear movement above 154.50/Time period: Morning Tokyo time to early European time.

Downward break: Movement below 153.50.

Nullification Conditions

A clear break and close above or below the expected range, especially if the price continues to move above 155.00 or below 153.00.

Risk Event

Sudden fluctuations due to the early release of US indicators, sudden policy comments, and reduced liquidity due to holidays.

Position Management

Keep the size to about 70-80% of your normal position / Take profits by looking at rebounds near the upper or lower limits / Set stop losses outside the expected range (for example, if it breaks above the lower limit, if it breaks below the upper limit, then above the upper limit).

Checklist

First, check whether the USD/JPY is moving within the expected range.

Be aware of the impact of reduced liquidity (thin trading and the appearance of shadows).

Monitor by time period to see if there are any changes due to index announcements or policy statements.

Market Summary

The euro showed little buying momentum the previous day, and the dollar also showed little movement, lacking direction.

Eurozone economic sentiment indicators showed improvement, but trading was limited as investors remained cautious about U.S. interest rates.

Due to the US market holiday today, there will be fewer market participants, and price movements are expected to be quiet, mainly due to adjustments by short-term investors.

Expected range

The range is expected to remain in the upper 1.14 to lower 1.16 range.

Given the decline in liquidity, we need to be mindful of sudden fluctuations

tactics

Until a clear direction emerges, we will focus on range rotation and respond carefully by prioritizing short-term sell-offs.

Considering a rebound when approaching support, but avoiding excessive following

trigger

If the price clearly breaks above the 1.16 mark during European trading hours, there will be attempts to shift to a buying-back trend.

On the other hand, if it falls below 1.14, the risk of a larger adjustment increases, so be careful.

Nullification Conditions

If the price fails to break through the upper resistance level and selling pressure increases again, withdraw the uptrend scenario.

On the other hand, if the price does not fall below the lower limit and remains stable, we will reassess the downside scenario.

Risk Event

German economic sentiment indicators and eurozone data releases

Reduced liquidity and sudden price movements due to US market closures

Position Management

Keep trading volume to about half of normal levels and set wider stop losses in case of sudden price fluctuations.

When taking profits, focus on the short term and keep your positions light before major indicators.

Checklist

Check whether the initial movements in European time will give a sense of direction

Observe price and volume movements following Eurozone data releases

Be wary of one-way swings due to thin trading during the US market holiday

Market Summary

The previous day saw the market try to rise higher several times, but the rebound continued, and the market closed with a heavy upper limit.

Today is a US holiday and the bond market is closed, making the market prone to low liquidity during New York hours.

Markets are cautious as they gauge the direction of interest rate cuts ahead of UK labor market data release

It is difficult to determine the direction, and although price movements are limited, caution is needed in the event of a downward move.

Expected range

Expected to be around 1.305–1.323

1.30 is seen as a psychological turning point, and above that, the 1.32 range is a zone where sell-offs are likely to occur.

Overall, the trend of exploring the lower limit of the range is likely to prevail.

tactics

Consider shorting at the upper resistance zone, focusing on selling on pullbacks

As spreads may widen due to reduced liquidity, please leave some leeway when placing limit orders.

In short-term trading, limit price ranges and avoid increasing positions before events.

trigger

A break of 1.310 could accelerate a downward test

Weak UK employment data could strengthen the downward bias

On the other hand, if the market turns out to be on the upside, there is room for temporary buying back of the pound.

Nullification Conditions

Breaking above 1.323 temporarily halts pullback selling scenario

If the index remains stable at around 1.32 after the employment statistics, we will reconsider the scenario of searching for a lower price.

If the price continues to reach new highs in the short term, prioritize position adjustment.

Risk Event

UK Labour Market Statistics (Wages and Unemployment Rate)

US Holidays Reduce Liquidity

Sudden fluctuations due to European time statements and indicators

Position Management

Aim for a trading size of 50-70% of the usual amount

Take profits early before the lower range, and stop losses above 1.323

Before the indicator, reduce your open positions and consider re-entering after checking the results.

Checklist

Instantly check UK employment statistics for wage trends and unemployment rates

Reduced positions due to reduced liquidity due to US market closures

Determine changes in short-term trends, focusing on the 1.31 attack and defense

Market Summary

The previous day, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Deputy Governor's speech hinted at the intention to "maintain a somewhat tighter financial environment in order to return to the inflation target," which provided support for the Australian dollar.

Australian consumer confidence recovers in November, with sentiment weighing on prices slightly

The US bond market is closed today, which means liquidity is likely to be tight, and we expect the market to be uncertain about direction during the day.

The price is likely to fluctuate within the range of the previous day's high and low, and the breakout will depend on the headline.

Expected range

The main scenario is around 0.6480–0.6560, with a trade-off around 0.65.

Beware of momentary excesses due to thin trading and avoid chasing the edge prices.

Reassessing the range trend based on price movements after London investors entered the market

tactics

Based on range rotation, ignore new trades near the center and aim to return to the center from the edge

When a headline occurs, wait for a moment rather than immediately follow it

Split limit orders shallowly, and adjust risk to close to the opening price quickly after execution

trigger

The breakout level was the previous day's high and a new high in the European initial market.

The downside was the previous day's low and the Tokyo morning low.

Focus on the early London trading times and the market conditions before and after the fix.

The factors fluctuate depending on RBA-related headlines, Chinese sentiment, and advance reports of US indicators.

Nullification Conditions

A series of large negative and positive lines in one direction, with prolonged stagnation at the upper or lower levels.

The reaction of selling on rallies and buying on dips is sluggish, and the pullback after the break is minimal.

The expected central zone formation collapses, and the pin bar remains unformed.

Risk Event

Changes in speculation due to additional reports and reinterpretation of the RBA Deputy Governor's speech

Australian November Consumer Confidence Update and Business Sentiment Headlines

US bond market closures led to thinning of orders and widening spreads, as well as speculation over US inflation data later in the week

Position Management

Start with a board that is less than half the normal size, and take into account the risk of slipping due to the thinness of the board.

Set short-term profit-taking steps and secure a portion mechanically by returning to the central band

Place stop loss tightly outside the most recent shadow, and pause for a while if there are consecutive hits.

Checklist

Check for additional RBA-related headlines and statements by key figures

Examining the latest Australian sentiment and market interpretation gaps

Monitor periods of reduced liquidity and widening spreads due to U.S. bond market closures

Looking back

Although prices tested higher from Tokyo to Europe, the rise came to a halt as investors were aware of sell-offs at higher prices.

summary

The dollar/yen exchange rate fluctuated up and down against the backdrop of US interest rates and employment-related indicators.

Dollar selling intensified in the early New York session, but buying back came in towards the end, resulting in a calm trend.

The direction was limited, and adjustments were likely ahead of a turning point.

Today's price movements

Prices remained firm during Tokyo hours and rose gradually during European hours

During New York time, the market temporarily fell in response to weekly US employment-related indicators.

After that, there was a buying spree, and the market remained at a small fluctuation compared to the previous day at the end of the day.

Background/materials

Mixed results from US economic indicators make it difficult to determine the direction of interest rates

In Japan, expectations of a change in monetary policy receded, leaving the yen selling mood

The overall trend of risk appetite continued, but short-term profit-taking was also noticeable.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

On a daily basis, the price continues to consolidate at high levels.

Although it is located above the moving average line, there is a sense of weight on the upside.

The focus is on whether short-term support can be maintained

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The upward trend is maintained in the medium term, but momentum is slowing somewhat.

Momentum is needed to set a new high, and we are waiting for the next news.

The market is consolidating its lower end, with limited signs of a change in direction

Impressions

Reactions to US indicators were likely to create short-term volatility.

There was no clear trend in the overall market, and trading continued to be centered around position adjustments.

Although the price movements were quiet, it was an impressive day with heavy upside.

Trading Impressions

It was appropriate to carefully refrain from chasing higher prices and limit ourselves to targeting short-term pullbacks.

There is a strong tendency to sell off at turning points, and follow-up buying is limited

It was safe to wait until the current had turned before entering.

Checklist

Check whether short-term support is available

Examining reactions to US economic indicators

Beware of changes in position bias

Looking back

EURUSD briefly surpassed last week's highs as dollar selling continued amid reduced liquidity due to the US holiday.

summary

Weak European indicators combined with the closure of the US market resulted in an overall lack of direction for the day.

During New York time, the dollar weakened following the latest employment news, leading to a buying back of the euro.

Ultimately, the upward trend did not continue, and growth stagnated due to short-term profit-taking.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo and European trading hours, prices fluctuated slightly up and down compared to the previous day, moving within a limited range.

Selling of the dollar intensified during New York time, and the dollar was seen slightly breaking above last week's high.

After that, there was a reactionary buying back of the dollar, and the market closed at a somewhat calmer level at the end of the day.

Background/materials

Germany's ZEW economic climate index fell short of expectations, raising concerns about the European economy.

In the United States, bond markets were closed for a holiday and major economic data was lacking.

There were times when technical buying by some short-term investors pushed up the market, but the continuity was limited.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The most recent upside is near last week's high, maintaining a short-term upward trend line.

On the other hand, on a daily basis, the price has not clearly broken through the upper resistance zone, making it difficult to determine the direction.

The breakout occurred amid low trading volume, so caution is needed regarding a short-term backlash.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the market is expected to maintain a solid trend since September, but selling pressure will remain.

The moving averages are converging and are in a transitional period where they are searching for a direction.

Going forward, US interest rate trends and European economic sentiment indicators will likely be key to determining trends.

Impressions

While the overall market was quiet before the event, the upside driven by technical factors was striking.

This is thought to be a temporary movement resulting from adjustments to short-term positions rather than a sustained buying trend.

In times of low liquidity, price movements tend to be exaggerated, so caution is required.

Trading Impressions

Rather than chasing high prices in thin trading, it is safer to enter the market after checking the reaction near the turning point.

Short-term traders should focus on taking profits when prices are rising and place importance on risk management in the event of sudden changes.

In an environment where it is difficult to get a sense of direction, it is effective to limit position size.

Checklist

Beware of excessive positions before important indicators

Be wary of the risk of a reversal during periods of low liquidity

Don't rely too much on short-term breakouts, but be sure to check thoroughly.

Looking back

The UK employment statistics showed a worsening unemployment rate, which led to a temporary sell-off of the pound, but the dollar weakened in response to US employment-related indicators, and the pound began to recover its losses.

summary

The market was cautious in assessing the outlook for interest rates in the UK and the US, and prices continued to move with little sense of direction.

Although it reacted to short-term factors, overall it remained within a limited range.

The tug-of-war between risk aversion and interest rate expectations continues, with no clear trend forming.

Today's price movements

During Asian trading hours, the market continued to move little, following the previous day's trend, and during European trading hours, the market temporarily fell following the employment statistics.

During New York time, selling of the dollar prevailed following the results of US indicators, and the pound rebounded from its lower level.

Towards the end of the day, there was a mix of buying and selling to adjust positions, and the price range converged within a limited range.

Background/materials

With the UK labour market showing signs of slowing, expectations of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England were on the rise.

In the United States, employment-related indicators were slightly weak, capping the dollar's upside.

The market environment continues to be one in which investors are aware of a turning point in global interest rate policy.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the upside is heavy and there is a tendency for selling pressure to be felt.

There has been buying back within the support zone, and prices continue to fluctuate within a narrow range.

Short-term indicators lack direction and are waiting for a clear break.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the price has formed a gentle holding range, and there are limited signs of a trend reversal.

The market remains balanced as it is moving near the major moving average.

To predict medium-term trends, the focus will be on the next UK economic indicators and BOE comments.

Impressions

The reaction to the news was temporary, suggesting that investors are taking a cautious stance.

With the outlook for policy interest rates unclear, the market remains in a wait-and-see mood.

In the near term, it is more likely to be influenced by changes in sentiment than fundamentals.

Trading Impressions

It is susceptible to fluctuations due to sudden index announcements, so position management is required.

In short-term trading, it is important to respond flexibly, taking into account the limited price range.

It is best to enter cautiously until a clear break is confirmed.

Checklist

Check the next UK and US economic indicator release dates

Keep track of BOE keynote speech schedules

Reaffirming key support and resistance levels

Looking back

Although the Australian dollar was supported by comments from key figures at the Reserve Bank of Australia, the overall trend was one of narrow range with little sense of direction.

summary

Selling prevailed in Tokyo, and the market remained in a range-bound state during European trading hours.

In New York, there was a temporary sell-off of the dollar following US employment-related indicators, but buying back came in and kept the upside in check.

Overall, there was a strong mood of waiting for new information, and trading remained within a small range.

Today's price movements

In early Asia, the market fell to near the previous day's low before rebounding slightly on buying by short-term investors.

In Europe, prices continued to move without any sense of direction, and the low number of participants meant that the market was not stable.

Selling pressure on the dollar temporarily increased in New York, but the rise in the Australian dollar was limited.

Background/materials

The Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia made comments indicating a strong stance on curbing inflation, which helped support the Australian dollar.

In the US, risk appetite recovered somewhat as expectations grew that a government shutdown would be avoided.

However, with US economic indicators being mixed, it was difficult for the market to gauge direction.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

Although there was a short-term rebound from near the lower end of the range, the upside was capped at the previous day's high level.

The short-term moving average remains flat and no clear trend reversal has been confirmed.

There was also a decrease in trading volume, and active new positioning was limited.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the market will continue to move in the middle of the range, and the lack of direction continues.

The decline has stopped at the support zone, leaving room for buying back.

To break through the upper resistance zone, further material or clear weakness in the US dollar is likely needed.

Impressions

The Australian dollar has been balancing between solid fundamentals and the instability of the US dollar.

While risk aversion receded across the market, cautious trading that did not lead to trend formation was evident.

Going forward, the market will likely continue to be influenced by short-term factors and will likely continue to move without any clear direction.

Trading Impressions

Short-term traders mainly engaged in scalping-type trading to adapt to the environment of small price fluctuations.

The situation continued to be one of buying with an eye on support zones and selling on rebounds at resistance zones.

In the medium term, position adjustments were prioritized, and new accumulation was refrained from.

Checklist

Check the remarks of RBA officials and the minutes of meetings

Keep a close eye on US employment-related indicators and interest rate trends

Continue to monitor the movement of major support and resistance zones