Market Summary

The dollar continued to be dominant on the previous day, closing at a high level, and the yen remains sluggish in its recovery.

While the interest rate differential between Japan and the US remains unchanged, speculations regarding interest rate forecasts are mixed in the market ahead of US price indexes and official comments.

Although the authorities are taking note of the caution, there is currently little evidence to support a clear trend toward buying the yen, and it is likely that the yen will remain in a range of highs.

Expected range

Today's main scenario is a range movement between the most recent high and a level that is likely to be a potential pullback.

There are many events between European and US trading hours, and market conditions are likely to remain volatile, so we would like to see a somewhat wider price range.

This is a situation where we need to assume a range view, preparing for both attempts to update the high and movements to test the previous day's low and short-term support band.

tactics

The basic stance is to keep in mind buying on dips in line with the upward trend, while refraining from chasing high prices and waiting for a correction.

If there is a shallow pullback during Asian trading hours, the average price will be adjusted by split entry, taking into account the risk of fluctuations around the time of European entry and US indexes.

If the short-term recovery is sudden, we will prioritize a wait-and-see approach and take a cautious stance by checking the depth of the downturn and the accompanying volume before entering.

trigger

On the upside, whether the price has clearly broken above the most recent high range and whether the price stays above that range for a long time will be a guideline for considering follow-up buying.

If the price clearly breaks below the previous day's low or short-term support band and the recovery becomes slow, keep an eye on it as a sign that the buying scenario on dips may be weakening.

In terms of time periods, we want to check the early European flows and the initial and second-stage movements immediately after the release of US price indexes as potential triggers.

Nullification Conditions

If the decline from the high range is larger than expected and the price breaks through multiple support bands in a short period of time, the scenario of buying on dips will weaken.

If the price fluctuates wildly after the indicator and remains heavy throughout the day near the lows rather than the highs, it is a sign that the assumption of trend continuation needs to be reconsidered.

Even if volatility suddenly increases due to statements by government officials or headlines, and price movements appear to be far removed from actual demand, it is best to avoid following suit.

Risk Event

US price indexes are easily linked to interest rate forecasts, and it is important to be cautious of widening spreads and sudden price jumps in the few minutes before and after the announcement.

It is important to note that during times when U.S. financial authorities are making statements, changes in the nuances regarding the timing and level of interest rates are likely to affect the direction of the dollar.

Depending on the timing, Japanese economic indicators and statements by important figures could also trigger yen buybacks, so it's best to check the schedule and headline levels in advance.

Position Management

Before and after an event, keep your position size smaller than usual and adjust your open positions to match your pre-determined risk tolerance.

Rather than aiming for a large price range all at once, the idea is to combine partial closings at turning points or near the most recent highs and lows to limit fluctuations in unrealized gains.

Stop losses should be based on breaking short-term support or breaking out of the expected range, and it is important to decide the level and lot size in advance so that you can execute stop losses without hesitation after reaching that point.

Checklist

Did you check the schedule and content of the U.S. inflation index and statements by financial authorities in advance?

Do you understand the relationship between the most recent highs and lows and short-term support and resistance levels on the chart?

Are your position size and acceptable risk levels excessive in light of your expected range and stop loss level?

Market Summary

The previous day saw a lack of direction and trading in a relatively narrow range.

On the euro side, the assessment of growth and prices remains uncertain, and a wait-and-see mood continues regarding the outlook for monetary policy.

The dollar is easily influenced by fluctuations in interest rates and risk appetite, and there are mixed signals for both positive and negative factors.

Today, we will be looking to see if there will be any movement to break out of the range through the flow after European investors enter and their reaction to the indicators.

Expected range

The lower limit is near the zone of potential bearish prices that were noticed up until the previous day.

The upper limit is around the high price range where sell-offs are likely to occur, and for the time being it is considered to be the upper edge of the range.

Until there is clear information on either the upside or downside, we expect the market to be prone to corrections of excesses.

We want to check the volume and smoothness of price movements around the milestones to determine the effectiveness of the range.

tactics

The basic stance is to rotate in the range, carefully picking up dips on the lower side and considering selling on rallies on the upper side.

We will refrain from following one direction and limit trading to short-term price fluctuations.

When a break is suspected, we prioritize adjusting existing positions over creating new ones.

During times when it is difficult to see the direction, it is best to take a lighter position and focus on observation.

trigger

The breakout clearly exceeds the upper limit of the range, and the key to determining whether the price can be maintained above that limit is whether the price can be maintained.

A downward breakout is a situation where we want to see if the price breaks through a potential support point and the subsequent recovery remains weak.

Prices tend to fluctuate around the time European trading starts and immediately after major index announcements, so be careful of misleading movements.

Inflation-related indicators in the eurozone and the US, business confidence indicators, and statements by key figures are likely to act as short-term triggers.

Nullification Conditions

If one end is repeatedly tested and the rebound weakens, causing the range to become unbalanced, adjust your assumptions.

When sudden news causes a significant increase in volatility and the price suddenly settles outside the range, it is necessary to reconsider your strategy.

If the price does not push back after crossing an important technical milestone and instead settles over time, range-based tactics will become less effective.

Not only short-term indicators, but also events that raise concerns about changes in the medium- to long-term outlook can be invalidating factors.

Risk Event

Eurozone inflation indicators, business surveys, and monetary policy announcements

Comments on U.S. employment and consumption indicators, and monetary policy stance

General news that significantly changes risk appetite, such as geopolitical risks and sudden changes in the stock market

Sudden headlines that occur during times when liquidity is likely to be low can also be a factor in fluctuations.

Position Management

Before and after the event, keep your position size smaller than usual to allow room for unexpected fluctuations.

Take profits at each milestone within the range, and adjust so as not to hold too much unrealized profit at once.

Set clear criteria for stop loss outside the range, and maintain a stance of executing without hesitation when the conditions are met.

The overall risk amount is managed taking into account account balances and positions in other currencies, and care is taken to prevent excessive bias.

Checklist

Check interest rate trends and spread changes in the Eurozone and the US

Check the price movements and trading patterns near the previous day's highs and lows and the upper and lower limits of the range

Check the economic calendar and upcoming speeches by key figures, and reassess your position before and after the event.

Market Summary

Although there were times the previous day when selling was dominant, the decline narrowed and the market closed, so there is a sense of a temporary recovery trend.

With UK growth indicators and housing-related data due, the market continues to cautiously assess the economic slowdown and the direction of monetary policy.

In the US, too, attention is focused on price indicators, and with factors both for the pound and the dollar lining up, it is difficult to determine the direction.

In the short term, there is a mixture of strong recovery and heavy upside, making the market prone to either direction.

Expected range

Today we can expect fluctuations to be centered around the low 1.30s on the lower side and around 1.32 on the upper side.

Given the previous day's rebound, it is likely that the price range will be difficult to push either up or down.

There is a possibility of a temporary overshoot depending on the outcome of the UK indicators.

With price-related events in the US coming up, the price range is likely to fluctuate between European time and New York time.

tactics

The basic strategy is to assume a range rotation and to avoid any extreme growth on either the upside or downside.

When the recovery is heavy, it is easy to take short-term selling turns, and when there is a pullback, it is easy to take light buying turns.

If the movement back to the central band continues, it is safer not to pursue your position too deeply.

When new information is announced, new entries are limited and priority is given to confirming clear price movements.

trigger

One indicator will be whether the UK growth index in European trading hours breaks above the level at which the strength and weakness of the market became clear.

The short-term deciding factor for the downward direction will be whether the price will again break below the previous day's downward trend.

When U.S. price indicators show unexpected fluctuations, the direction is likely to change.

We would like to incorporate into our short-term judgment whether the initial strength or weakness immediately after the indicator will continue.

Nullification Conditions

If the price continues to move in one direction, far away from the expected central band, the range assumption is likely to collapse.

If the results of the UK indicators turn out to be a major surprise, widening the scope for recovery or further downward pressure.

When a market pattern appears that continues to cut up or down in high and low prices after the US price index.

This is the time when short-term selling on rallies and buying on dips no longer work at all.

Risk Event

Publication of UK growth indicators and housing-related data.

US price-related indicators and employment-related data.

Short-term fluctuations due to interest rate trends in Europe and the United States and statements by important figures.

Sudden price movements during times of low market liquidity.

Position Management

The size should be more modest than usual, and should gradually decrease before and after the indicator.

Take profits early as the price approaches the center band, and avoid chasing it too far.

When cutting losses, take into account short-term fluctuations and do not hesitate to do so outside the expected range.

Do not take multiple directions at the same time, but narrow down your decision-making criteria to one.

Checklist

Which way did the initial movements after the UK data go?

Which will prevail: a recovery trend or a heavy upside?

Is there a sudden widening of the price range around the US index?

Market Summary

Following a slight recovery the previous day, today's Australian employment data came in better than expected, leading to a gradual rise in the Australian dollar against the US dollar.

With the unemployment rate falling and employment numbers showing solid growth, it is easy to assume that the RBA will maintain a tighter stance for the time being.

The AUD/USD pair is currently at its highest level since its most recent recovery, and while it is attempting to move upwards due to indicators, it is prone to sell-offs at the upper end due to a sense of turning point.

Expected range

Today, the basic scenario is that the pair will explore the ups and downs in the range of around 0.6500 to 0.6600, keeping in mind the lows reached during Asian trading hours and the highs reached after the indicators.

If the buying momentum following the Australian index continues unabated, it will be easy to test the upper limit of the range, but depending on the results of the US index, caution is needed as the price may temporarily fall below 0.6500.

tactics

Currently, the basic strategy is to buy on dips while checking where the dips will stop after the indicator, and try to enter gradually without chasing high prices.

In the short term, we will prioritize taking profits before the turning point, but as long as the firmness of the downside remains on the back of improving employment, we will assume a stance of picking up shallow dips.

On the other hand, if the market sentiment changes due to factors on the US dollar side, it may shift to an environment dominated by pullback selling, so it is important to manage without getting stuck in a fixed direction.

trigger

On the upside, whether the price can clearly break above the high range after the indicator and settle there will be a deciding factor for continuing to buy on dips, and we want to check the shallowness of the pullback after the break.

If the price clearly breaks through the potential pullback around 0.6500 on the downside and the rebound becomes weak, this will be a signal to temporarily hold back on the upside.

In terms of time periods, we will want to pay attention to the early European market after the Australian flows have run their course, and the price movements around the time of the release of US employment-related indicators and US inflation-related indicators.

Nullification Conditions

If the buying driven by the Australian employment data stalls and the daily chart closes well below 0.6500, we will consider the scenario of buying on dips to have temporarily retreated.

Additionally, if the stock continues to fall while failing to reach a new high after the index, we will consider switching to a cautious stance as this is a sign that there is limited room for short-term gains.

If the US dollar strengthens more than expected and similar movements against the US dollar spread to other major currencies besides the Australian dollar, we would like to conclude that the market has become driven by the US dollar rather than individual factors.

Risk Event

The biggest focus will be on how the assessment of today's Australian employment statistics will be absorbed into the market, and attention will also be needed on subsequent Australian-related indicators and the tone of statements by RBA officials.

Overseas, US employment and inflation indicators are due to be released, and there is a risk that the overall direction of the dollar will change depending on whether interest rate cuts are expected.

Furthermore, we will need to keep an eye on the possibility that Chinese economic indicators and stock market trends will influence the level of risk appetite and affect the position of the Australian dollar, a resource-rich currency.

Position Management

It is safe to assume that new positions will be entered into at a slightly smaller size than usual, and that further increases will be made cautiously until the volatility following the Australian employment data subsides.

Regarding taking profits, I think it is easier to manage risk by considering partial settlements before the milestone and reducing the risk once the price has returned to the middle of the expected range.

It is advisable to mechanically execute stop losses when the price clearly falls below a potential pullback level, or when the price is judged to be moving in the opposite direction to the scenario due to post-event volatility.

Checklist

Did you check the new high after the Australian employment statistics, and the shallowness of the subsequent pullback and the accompanying volume?

Are you keeping an eye on the battle around 0.6500 and the movement of the dollar index before and after the release of US indexes?

Are your position size and stop loss level set in line with the expected range and volatility of the day?

Looking back

Against the backdrop of US interest rate trends, the market was unstable with buying and selling varying depending on the time of day, and the market held back from falling in the final stages due to buying back.

summary

During Tokyo hours, the market continued to trade in a small range at high prices, and a wait-and-see attitude prevailed across the market.

After European investors entered the market, dollar selling intensified due to sluggish US interest rates, and downward pressure was temporarily felt.

Although selling continued during New York hours, buying gradually began, and the overall price remained within a range.

Today's price movements

In the early stages, prices remained in the high range but continued to move in a directionless manner.

As European trading began, dollar selling took the lead in response to interest rate trends, and the price range gradually narrowed with occasional bargain hunting.

Selling prevailed again during New York trading hours, but buying returned towards the end of the day, allowing the market to recover some of the downward pressure.

Background/materials

The sluggish growth of US long-term interest rates was perceived as a factor for selling the dollar, and changes in interest rates at different times of the day directly affected price movements.

There was no significant change in Japan's policy stance, and the direction of the exchange rate was driven by external factors.

The overall market continued to see a mix of risk appetite and adjustments, and buying of the yen as a safe haven currency was limited.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the price continued to trade in the high range, with a balance between heavy upside and strong downside.

There were many reactions around the short-term moving average, and the market continued to fluctuate in small increments.

The market reacted quickly to interest rates, and the formation of short-term trends was easily influenced by intermittent price movements.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, prices continued to remain in the high range, making it difficult to see a clear direction.

The market was aware of the long period of stagnation near major turning points, making it easy for energy to accumulate both up and down.

Easily influenced by interest rates and events, it has tended to move within a range rather than maintain a consistent trend.

Impressions

High dependency on interest rate information and differences in reaction depending on the time of day made price movements complicated.

The struggle between selling on rallies and buying on dips continued, and I got the impression that price range management was important in short-term trading.

Although there was some buying back towards the end of the day, overall it was a fairly even day.

Trading Impressions

The flow of the market tends to change depending on the time of day, and there were many situations where following-the-trading was prone to swings.

The strategy of carefully picking up dips and rallies was effective, and it was important to focus on small, steady investments rather than aiming for excessive price fluctuations.

It was necessary to carefully assess the reaction around the turning point, and the accuracy of entry and exit was put to the test.

Checklist

Have you grasped the market's reaction to interest rate movements?

Have you seen the price behavior around the milestone?

Have you prepared for changes in the flow depending on the time of day?

Looking back

The euro rose on the day as dollar selling prevailed following a pause in the rise in US interest rates.

summary

After European investors entered the market, the dollar was sold off due to the trend in US interest rates, and the euro remained firm.

The dollar continued to be sold off in corrections towards New York, and the euro remained vulnerable to buying at its weaker side.

Overall, the direction was limited, but the trend has somewhat mitigated concerns about the downside.

In the short term, the market reacted quickly to news, and changes in liquidity over time were reflected in price movements.

Today's price movements

In the early stages, the market was in a state of turmoil after a sell-off, but the euro recovered gradually during European trading hours.

After the New York opening, dollar buying was slow, and the euro strengthened at the bottom and rose slightly.

Although the price range for the day was stable, buying was likely to occur during the downward trend.

Overall, the market is moving in a stable range while digesting the news.

Background/materials

As US interest rate adjustments progress, the dollar-buying trend has temporarily subsided, creating an environment in which funds are more likely to flow into the euro.

U.S. economic indicators, including employment-related indicators, were mixed, causing market interest rate expectations to fluctuate.

Although there has been no major change in the economic outlook for the eurozone, it will act as a supportive factor in the short term.

Political events and monetary policy-related comments were also limited, and the market reacted selectively

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The short-term trend of cutting the lower price is maintained, making the market more favorable for buying on dips.

The lows in the European trading hours were perceived as short-term support, contributing to the rebound during New York trading hours

On the upside, the previous day's rebound high is in sight, and material support is needed to break through.

The short-term trend line is gradually rising, and although momentum is limited, it remains stable.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the market will continue to fluctuate, and the direction is unclear.

The battle around the moving average continues, and the market structure is prone to a mix of pullbacks and sell-offs.

The reaction slowed at the mid-term resistance zone, and actual demand trading suppressed price movements.

The price is moving within a wide range, and is prone to fluctuations depending on the material.

Impressions

Short-term price movements are calming down, and excessive reactions to news appear to be limited.

Sensitivity to interest rates and other indicators remains high, and a lack of direction indicates caution among market participants

There was no rush to form a trend, and trading continued while checking reactions at each milestone.

Trading Impressions

There was a certain level of buying interest at the pullback, and it seemed like there were some situations where it was easy to participate in the short term.

There was no denying that the upside was heavy, and there were many occasions when careful profit taking and position management were required.

Overall, it was important to focus on range and carefully pick out the moments when movement was required.

Checklist

Confirm direction of US interest rates and eurozone indicators

Check price movements during European hours and how the low price range is handled

Check the position within the mid-term range and the reaction of the resistance zone

Looking back

The day saw a buying spree following a downward pressure from weak UK data, leading to a rise in the dollar against the lower end.

summary

In the early stages, the UK's growth indicators weighed on the market, and it was felt that the market would be unable to rise further until it entered Europe.

The stabilization of US interest rates has slowed the dollar's recovery, and the pound has gradually consolidated its lower limit.

In New York, the balance between currencies was reorganized, creating an environment conducive to buybacks.

Overall, the market recovered while digesting weak news, and extreme fluctuations were limited.

Today's price movements

Asian trading hours saw the market continue to move within a narrow range, with a cautious stance continuing the previous day's trend.

During European trading hours, the market fell further in response to weak domestic indicators, but this did not lead to excessive selling and the market gradually recovered.

As the market approached New York, the stabilization of US interest rates became a concern, and pound buying prevailed against the backdrop of dollar selling.

The market ended with a calm price movement in the final stages, and concerns about a lower price were somewhat alleviated.

Background/materials

Latest UK figures show slower growth, initially weighing on pound

On the other hand, the stabilization of US interest rates has eased dollar buying momentum, providing support for the pound.

There was limited unexpected news in both Europe and the US, and the focus was on confirming the continuation of existing themes.

The market maintained a cautious approach to risk management and avoided excessive fluctuations.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

After the downward pressure on entry into Europe, the market maintained a short-term support range, confirming buying interest on dips.

In New York, the recent resistance band was tested, and the recovery trend expanded slightly.

Short-term price fluctuations were relatively stable, with price movements primarily focused on the balance of supply and demand.

Towards the end of the day, the price remained close to the short-term line, and no rapid growth was observed.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

From a medium-term perspective, there is still a lack of direction, and the stock continues to move within a wide range.

While the lower limit is being considered at a certain level, the upper limit has not been clearly broken through, and the cross-holding trend continues.

The market is susceptible to domestic and international factors, and the medium-term market sentiment appears to lack stability.

Additional information was needed to form a trend, so careful judgment was required.

Impressions

The pound, despite weak indicators, consolidated its lower end and appeared to regain stability throughout the day.

However, the lack of information continues in the medium term, making it difficult to predict the direction of the market.

The price movements themselves remained within a relatively well-organized range, and the market was keen to avoid any excessive following.

It seems like a day spent carefully checking the ingredients without going overboard.

Trading Impressions

In the early stages, selling was the dominant trend, so it was best to refrain from making any risky entries.

After the downward pressure during European trading hours, there were some buying opportunities, but the environment was also prone to short-term profit-taking.

The recovery in New York required careful position management, and excessive chasing was not recommended.

It was effective to focus on movement within the range and adjust my stance flexibly.

Checklist

Has it been possible to secure short-term support?

Are US interest rates continuing to stabilize?

Is the buyback trend continuing?

Looking back

Although buying was ahead in the early stages, selling on the rebound intensified from mid-Europe, and the gains were almost wiped out by the time of New York.

summary

Strong employment news in Australia and risk appetite supported early buying, but the trend reversed from mid-session in Europe.

The market reacted strongly to US interest rate movements, and the fluctuations were large as it swung back from dollar selling to dollar buying.

Selling pressure continued into New York time, resulting in a noticeable pullback from the intraday high.

Today's price movements

From Tokyo to early Europe, buying was dominant and the market gradually rose.

After European investors entered the market, the rise in US interest rates eased, and dollar selling intensified, temporarily testing the highs.

Selling became dominant from mid-Europe, and price movements continued through New York, almost erasing the early gains.

Background/materials

Australian employment data showed overall strength, leading to early buying of the Australian dollar

The global trend of risk appetite continued, which was seen as a factor pushing up the Australian dollar.

While there were times when dollar selling progressed due to the narrowing of the rate of increase in US interest rates, there were also times when the dollar's upside became heavy due to the subsequent rebound.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the early uptrend, the short-term line provided support, making it easy to pick up dips.

Since the middle of the European session, there has been strong selling pressure, making it impossible to maintain the short-term upward trend.

During New York time, the decline from the intraday highs continued, and the upper limit of the short-term range was particularly heavy.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, although there are ups and downs, it continues to move within a certain range.

Although there is room for upward pressure due to Australian indicators and risk appetite, it is often held down by US interest rate trends.

The upper end of the mid-term range remains a resistance zone, and the direction remains uncertain.

Impressions

The impression of the day was very different, with the early part of the day showing a straightforward reaction to the news, and the falloff from mid-Europe onwards.

There were times when the Australian dollar was seen to be buying, but the fact that it is easily influenced by US interest rates and the trend is easily changed is an issue.

There were many amplitudes that were difficult to follow in the short term, and it seemed that reasonable entry accuracy was required.

Trading Impressions

It was easy to pick up the dips in the early stages, but it was necessary to catch the shift to selling dominance from mid-European trading onwards.

During New York trading hours, sell-offs tended to pile up, so careful judgment was required when trading price fluctuations.

There were many instances where price movements lacked consistency, making it important to attract and manage positions.

Checklist

Are we being too sensitive to changes in US interest rates?

Do you know the upper and lower limits of the mid-term range in advance?

Are the criteria for selling on rallies and buying on dips clearly defined?