Market Summary

The dollar/yen exchange rate is trading at a high level amid concerns about fluctuations in US interest rates and weak Japanese economic indicators.

The outlook for Japanese and US policy is unclear, and while the yen is trending weakly, there is a continuing tug-of-war between caution over the upside and the risk of a sudden appreciation of the yen.

Expected range

Today, we expect the range to be around 153.00 to 156.00, with the upper range being the most recent high and the lower range being a likely pullback.

During times when there are few indicators or statements from important people, the market is likely to remain within a range, and new information will likely be needed for a clear breakout.

tactics

The basic stance is to buy on dips, avoid chasing high prices, and carefully pick up short-term dips.

As long as the daily chart maintains an upward trend, it is safe to view sudden downturns as temporary adjustments and combine them with partial profit taking on recovery phases.

trigger

On the upside, we will check whether the breakout continues near 155.50, and the entry condition will be that the spread and trading volume remain stable after the breakout.

On the downside, we will be watching to see if the price breaks below 153.50 and moves towards the 153.00 range, and we will look for a pullback when there are signs of a bottoming out on the short-term chart.

Nullification Conditions

If the closing price breaks below 152.50 and the daily chart clearly shows a lower high and a new low, we will reconsider our buying scenario.

If US interest rates fall more than expected and the upward pressure on the dollar as a whole weakens, the stance of assuming a strong dollar will need to be revised.

Risk Event

If Japan's growth-related indicators and price statistics deviate from expectations, the Bank of Japan's stance will change, and the yen's direction will become more likely to fluctuate.

On the US side, manufacturing data and comments from Federal Reserve officials could influence expectations for when interest rates will be cut, potentially impacting the dollar's trend.

Position Management

By keeping position size smaller than usual and placing stop loss levels outside the expected range, you will be less susceptible to temporary noise.

Take profits gradually, using the most recent highs and lows as a guide, and try not to chase unrealized gains all at once.

Checklist

Have you checked the position of the rising trend line and the major moving average on the daily chart?

Are you aware of the calendar of major indicators and speeches scheduled for today?

Did you check the stop loss level outside the expected range and the risk-reward balance in advance?

Market Summary

The final report on eurozone inflation indicators is scheduled for today, and attention is being paid to the balance between the degree of price slowdown and expectations of interest rate cuts.

The previous day saw a suppression of the upside, and the recovery was slow, with intermittent attempts to test the lower end.

The US side is also facing important indicators, and the situation continues to be one of searching for a sense of direction while keeping an eye on interest rate and stock market trends.

Expected range

The expected range is around 1.1550-1.1660, and we should keep in mind the fluctuations between the previous day's low and the most recent rebound high.

On the downside, we want to keep an eye on whether selling will intensify further at the previous day's low or a zone slightly below that.

On the upside, we expect there to be a tendency for sell-offs to occur towards the upper 1.16 range, and we would like to avoid chasing the price as it approaches the upper limit of the range.

tactics

Our basic stance is to sell on rallies, and we would like to wait for a recovery during European trading hours before considering entry.

I want to diversify my positions around clear milestones and maintain the image of carefully picking up short-term price fluctuations.

Chasing the bottom can easily lead to overshooting, so avoid jumping in immediately after the price breaks through a milestone.

trigger

The first indicator to be used to determine whether euro selling will prevail after the final report of the eurozone inflation indicators is released.

If the price clearly falls below the previous day's low and the recovery remains weak, we would like to consider strengthening our stance on the rebound.

On the other hand, if the index continues to rise and stay in the upper 1.16 range, we would like to switch to a wait-and-see approach.

Nullification Conditions

If the price clearly breaks above the 1.1660 level and then settles down, we would like to reconsider the sell-on scenario.

If the price quickly turns around after testing the lower limit and moves to update the previous day's upper limit, we should temporarily abandon the assumption that the price is moving downwards.

If volatility drops sharply after the index and remains stuck in a narrow price range, refrain from aggressive buying and selling.

Risk Event

If the final figures for eurozone inflation indicators deviate significantly from forecasts, we should be cautious of any sudden changes in direction.

If there are sudden movements in US economic indicators or long-term interest rates, we need to be aware of the risk of a downside move for the euro/dollar due to dollar buying.

When sentiment changes due to statements by important figures or sudden headlines, we want to be flexible and not stick to a pre-determined scenario.

Position Management

Overall, I would like to keep the lot size somewhat small and trade at a size that can withstand fluctuations within the expected range.

Place your stop loss a little outside the most recent high and low, and withdraw early if the price moves in a way that is different from what you expected.

I would like to prioritize taking profits without being too greedy, such as placing the profit taking position a little before the center of the range.

Checklist

Did you check how the volume and thickness of plates around the milestones changed before and after entering Europe?

Are you able to understand the price movements before and after the indicator and the extent of the spread, and are you able to visualize the execution risk?

Have you organized the daily candlestick patterns and the patterns of recent high and low price updates to check for any inconsistencies with your scenario?

Market Summary

With the UK CPI due, speculation about interest rate forecasts is mixed, and the US side is also struggling to provide a clear direction ahead of the minutes.

The pound-dollar pair is fluctuating between highs and lows, but the highs and lows are converging, and a holding pattern is in the cards.

Although there have been some short-term attempts to recover, neither the upper nor lower limits have been clearly broken through, and the market continues to explore the balance of power.

A wait-and-see attitude remains ahead of major events, making it easier for investors to wait for an exit from cross-shareholdings.

Expected range

Around 1.3100 to 1.3190

There are no clear breakthroughs either up or down, and the trend is expected to remain within the framework of cross-shareholdings.

The price range is likely to be limited until the event passes

The direction is easily changed depending on the material

tactics

Range rotation

While checking the battle between the upper and lower prices, we are preparing to pick up any small pullbacks.

Avoid excessive following, assuming continued cross-shareholdings

Prioritize early withdrawal in the event of a sudden change

trigger

A breakout is confirmed near 1.3190

The downside is a clear break around 1.3100.

Initial reaction after UK CPI and US minutes

Beware of the momentum as European time begins

Nullification Conditions

If the upper or lower limit of the cross-shareholding is broken with strong momentum

If the sense of direction after the event is biased in one direction

When short-term rebounds continue consecutively

If the response of the main lines slows down

Risk Event

UK CPI

FOMC Minutes

European and US PMI flash reports

UK retail data

Position Management

The size is modest and rotation is limited within the expected range.

Set a small profit margin and adjust it based on the assumption that the price range will be limited.

Execute stop loss early in line with the up and down break movements

Avoid leaving positions unattended after sudden changes

Checklist

The tilt of cross-holdings and the degree of proximity to the upper and lower limits

UK CPI and direction before and after US minutes

Trends and momentum after European time begins

Market Summary

In Australia, expectations of an early interest rate cut have receded due to the resilience of employment indicators, but with wage indicators and RBA-related events coming up this week, a wait-and-see mood continues.

In the US, interest rate expectations are fluctuating, with periods of dollar buying and periods of risk appetite returning, and the Australian dollar is also vulnerable to changes in the external environment.

The AUD/USD pair has been trading mainly in the 0.65 range recently, and although it has been feeling a bit heavy on the upside after a round of gains up until last week, it has started the day without any major disruptions.

On the daily chart, the area around the moving average line is being taken into consideration, and whether or not this level can be maintained will likely be the focus of the market conditions early this week.

Expected range

The main scenario for today is a range of around 0.6450–0.6550, with a tendency to buy on dips in the upper 0.64s and sell on rallies in the mid-0.65s.

During Asian trading hours, price ranges are likely to be limited as investors await events, and we expect the market to be prone to ups and downs in response to movements in US interest rates and stock markets after London.

On a weekly basis, the price is showing a slight recovery trend, but it is in a position where it is prone to adjustments at high prices, so it is important to be aware of the need to distinguish between short-term and medium-term ranges.

Rather than assuming a major trend reversal, we would like to first carefully check the direction of the convergence and breakout within the above range.

tactics

The basic strategy is to rotate within the range, and consider buying on dips gradually without chasing too hard around 0.6450, while considering selling on rallies around 0.6550 as an option.

New entries near the center of the range tend to have a poor risk-reward ratio, so it is best to focus on limit orders as close as possible while checking volatility and spreads.

If short-term technical indicators show overheating, regardless of the direction, reducing position size temporarily and leaving room to observe will make it easier to respond to fluctuations during events.

During times when it is difficult to determine the direction, it is worth considering the option of not being greedy for price fluctuations and instead focusing on limited entries at favorable positions rather than multiple intraday rotations.

trigger

A consolidation above 0.6550 is cited as an upward trigger, and if this level is clearly broken, it will be easier to consider following up with an eye on the upper limit of the range expanding in the short term.

On the downside, a break of 0.6450 will be a warning line, and if it breaks through on a closing price basis, it could be an opportunity to reconsider the dip buying stance more cautiously.

In terms of time zones, the price movements in the morning in London and the price movements before and after the release of US indexes in early New York often determine the intraday range, so care must be taken not to increase new positions too much before or after these times.

As the release of the Australian wage index approaches, spreads are likely to widen when liquidity narrows during Oceania hours, so caution is required when placing market orders.

Nullification Conditions

If the price quickly reaches the 0.6600 range and remains stuck at that high level for the rest of the day, the range-based sell-on-return strategy will need to be reconsidered, and there will be room to consider following the trend.

On the downside, if the price remains below 0.6400 for a long period of time or if a sudden risk-off trend occurs due to an event, the option will be to temporarily switch from a buy-on-dip stance to a flat one.

On the technical side, if the price breaks below the moving average or trend line and the recovery is slow, it is a sign that the short-term support recognition has been broken and careful judgment is required.

In either case, when price movements clearly exceed the volatility or intraday range you had anticipated, it is important to consider this as a time to reassess your scenario.

Risk Event

This week, Australian wage indicators and RBA-related announcements are scheduled, and the strength of wage inflation will likely change market views on the future path of interest rates.

In the US, inflation and business confidence indicators are due to be released, and the overall direction of the dollar may be influenced by the reaction of interest rates and stock markets, so attention should be paid not only to the results but also to how the market reacts.

News about China and resource prices is likely to affect Australian dollar sentiment, so it's a good idea to keep an eye on iron ore prices and headlines related to China.

Unscheduled statements by important figures and headlines about geopolitical risks can easily cause large price movements in a short period of time, so it is advisable to reaffirm the basic rule of not leaving positions unattended for long periods of time.

Position Management

On days like today when multiple events are coming up, it is best to keep position sizes smaller than usual and prioritize securing appropriate stop-loss and profit margins outside the expected range.

Even when combining buying near the lower limit of the range and selling near the upper limit, it is effective to operate with an awareness of the average opening price, assuming split entry and closing, rather than placing all orders at once.

Before and after the indicator, it is easy to get caught up in widening spreads and temporary shadows, so deciding in advance the time period to refrain from placing new orders and concentrating on managing positions you have opened in advance will help reduce risk.

It is easier to control your mental state by setting a maximum allowable loss for the day in advance and not making new entries if that level is reached, and also by implementing monetary-based rules.

Checklist

Have you checked the schedule and content of the Australian wage index and RBA-related headlines?

Do you understand how movements in US interest rates and stock indices affect the dollar as a whole and the AUD/USD?

Have you decided on the expected range, stop loss level, and maximum allowable loss for the day before entering?

Looking back

Buying was seen in Tokyo and Europe, and buying momentum intensified in New York, with prices exceeding last week's high at times, but the market settled down near the highs.

summary

The yen was weighed down on the upside, and the dollar continued to be supported overall throughout the day.

Buying became dominant during overseas trading hours, and prices continued to maintain levels near the milestone.

The market reaction was limited and there was no excessive reaction to the news.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo, buying gradually became dominant, continuing the trend from the previous day.

The market continued in a similar direction during European trading hours, with some buying occurring even during the downward pressure.

Buying intensified in New York, with prices exceeding last week's high at times and closing near the high.

Background/materials

There was a view that the dollar was supported by the fact that US indicators remained firm.

Expectations for US monetary policy did not change significantly, and buying of the yen due to fluctuations in risk appetite was limited.

In Japan, there were no major changes in economic indicators or policy trends, and market attention turned to external factors.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, prices remained in the high range, with a shallow pullback structure continuing.

There was some fighting around the turning points, but there was a sense that buying was more likely at the lower end.

Towards the end of the day, the momentum calmed down and the price range gradually narrowed.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the upward trend has been maintained, and the trend of picking up dips appears to be dominant.

Buying was more likely near the moving average, and the direction did not change significantly.

On the other hand, a cautious attitude was seen in the high price range, and excessive following was restrained.

Impressions

Despite the lack of material, support was confirmed, and the direction was easily influenced by external factors.

Short-term momentum and medium-term trends overlapped, and although the overall market was quiet, buying appeared to be dominant.

Going forward, price ranges are likely to narrow and changes are likely to occur depending on new information, so we will need to keep a close eye on the market's reaction.

Trading Impressions

The market was able to confirm the shallowness of the pullback while assessing the reaction near the turning point.

Although investors were cautious about chasing higher prices, the ease with which buybacks were made was impressive.

I got the impression that they need to adjust to short-term fluctuations and want to avoid taking unreasonable positions.

Checklist

Have you checked the reaction around the milestone?

Did you compare the depth of the pullback and the strength of the rebound?

Did you consider the direction of overseas time?

Looking back

Tokyo and Europe showed little sense of direction, and dollar buying prevailed in New York, strengthening the trend of testing the lower end of the market.

summary

The eurozone's price indexes were sluggish, and coupled with the cautious stance of the authorities, prices remained sluggish.

US indicators showed signs of strength, and expectations of early easing receded, creating an environment in which the dollar could be easily supported.

The recovery was limited, and prices remained mostly in the low range until the end of the day.

Overall, the market was conscious of the straightforward trend of a weaker euro and a stronger dollar in line with the news.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, prices remained in a small range, lacking direction.

After entering Europe, sell-offs became dominant, and the market showed signs of a heavy upside.

In New York, dollar buying progressed, and the lows fell slightly, testing the downward trend.

Even towards the close, the recovery was limited, and the market remained weak throughout the day.

Background/materials

Price-related indicators in the eurozone have slowed down, creating an environment where interest rate cuts are likely to be expected.

The cautious stance of the authorities was confirmed, and there were few factors that would lead to aggressive euro buying.

US indicators showed signs of resilience, and the dollar showed relatively firm movements.

While the market remained at a wait-and-see attitude for major statistics and statements from officials, the dollar remained dominant overall.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the upper resistance zone was a concern, making it easier for selling to occur during a recovery phase.

Although the lower end maintained a certain level of support, the momentum of the recovery was weak and the trend was leaning downward.

The oscillator remained near the neutral zone, limiting the bias towards strength and weakness.

In the short term, price movements continued with an eye on the lower end of the range.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the price remained below the major moving averages, and the recovery trend continued to take a breather.

The market continued to be unable to break through the upper limit, and the market was prone to feeling a bit sluggish.

The balance of the price range tends to tilt downward, but there were limited signs of a major collapse.

From a medium-term perspective, a consolidation between support and resistance zones was confirmed.

Impressions

There was a period of time when there was little sense of direction, and in the short term, there was a strong tendency to wait for new information.

The dollar appeared to maintain its relative strength due to the resilience of US indexes.

The weakening of the euro side made it difficult for the momentum of the recovery to be suppressed.

The series of price movements seems to have been mainly a straightforward reaction to the information.

Trading Impressions

It was difficult to expand either up or down, so it was necessary to build up a small price range.

Although there were some sell-offs, there were many price movements that were difficult to follow.

It was difficult to judge short-term pullbacks, and excessive position management was something we wanted to avoid.

It was a day where a clear breakthrough was difficult to come by and required careful action.

Checklist

Review key indicators and statements

Understanding the upper and lower limits of the short-term range

Observation on whether the dollar's dominance will continue

Looking back

There was some buying in Europe, but dollar buying intensified towards New York, causing the gains to be reversed.

summary

During European trading hours, concerns about the downside receded somewhat, but overall it was difficult to see a clear direction.

During New York trading, the dollar was easily bought, and fluctuations were kept to a minimum as cross-holding continued.

Although there was a reaction to short-term factors, it was a day that was unlikely to lead to a major change in the trend.

Today's price movements

There was some buying back in the early European session, and the downward trend took a breather.

In New York, dollar buying was dominant, narrowing the gains that had been building up in Europe.

As a result, the flow of goods was mainly within the cross-shareholding area, and the sense of direction was limited.

Background/materials

Markets remained cautious about the UK's fiscal management, limiting the pound's recovery.

Meanwhile, with US data releases coming up, the dollar remained reluctant but still prone to buying.

Both currencies were struggling to show a positive trend, and their reactions to news tended to fluctuate depending on the time of day.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

On the short-term axis, the price has remained stable, with no clear upward or downward movement.

Whenever there was a rebound, there was a push back movement, and buying and selling was prone to crossover around turning points.

Although there were short-term fluctuations, there was no momentum to determine the trend.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, a wide range was maintained, and market conditions remained difficult to judge the trend direction.

Although reactions around milestones provide some clues, there has been limited continuity.

The time of day was more likely to have an impact than the material, and there was no decisive factor in either the upside or downside.

Impressions

The strength of the material fluctuated depending on the time of day, and it seemed like the market continued to move without any clear direction.

Although there were short-term movements, the overall trend was not stable and a cautious stance was taken.

Unless there is any unexpected news, it seems that the environment is likely to continue with similar cross-shareholdings.

Trading Impressions

Buying back in Europe and selling back in New York were intertwined, making it difficult to decide whether to push or pull.

Even if you look at short-term reactions, it seems like the movement is difficult to sustain, making it hard to increase profit margins.

Until a clear direction was established, it was necessary to respond cautiously and not push ahead.

Checklist

Whether price movements are maintaining a cross-holding range

Are there any differences in the reactions to materials between Europe and New York?

Are reactions around milestones consistent?

Looking back

Tokyo and Europe showed a lack of direction, with dollar buying dominating in New York, pushing the market downwards.

summary

Overall, the dollar's dominance was a major factor, with the Australian dollar showing a notable slow recovery.

With major events coming up, there were few positive clues, and pressure towards the lower end of the range was noticeable.

The market remained mostly in the lower range towards the end of the day, and a cautious mood continued throughout the day.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, there was a lack of material, leading to limited movement and a limited sense of direction.

During European trading hours, buying and selling were mixed, and the price range remained flat.

In New York, dollar buying prevailed, pushing the market downwards, and the recovery remained sluggish as the market closed.

Background/materials

Speculation over US monetary policy continued to fluctuate, and interest rate fluctuations contributed to the dollar's strength.

The global risk aversion is a concern, and the Australian dollar is sensitive to resource and economic trends, making it difficult to buy.

A cautious stance was seen across the market ahead of Australian-related indicators and economic events in major countries.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the market will continue to be prone to sell-offs, and the upper limit will be heavy.

The battle for control continued near key points, with only limited rebounds.

The decline appears to have bottomed out near support, but a clear reversal is difficult to confirm.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the price will continue to move within a wide range, making it difficult to gauge its direction.

The moving averages are arranged in a mixed manner, making it difficult to form a clear trend.

In the medium term, there is a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the market is prone to fluctuations depending on the external environment.

Impressions

There were no major changes throughout the day, and the main factor was the firmness of the dollar.

The recovery lacked momentum, bringing to light the lack of buying factors for the Australian dollar.

The market appears to be remaining cautious as it waits to see what the next events and indicators will be.

Trading Impressions

Short-term sell-offs on rallies are likely to continue to work, but excessive following should be avoided.

When chasing the downside, it is necessary to pay attention to rebounds near turning points and adjust positions appropriately.

It is difficult to see a clear direction in the medium term, so we want to continue waiting for clues.

Checklist

Check the reaction near the milestone

Check changes in interest rates and dollar trends

Check the positioning of major events and how the market is pricing them in