Market Summary

Buying was dominant the previous day, and the price surpassed last week's high, indicating an upward trend, but we need to carefully assess whether this trend will continue in the near term.

Today, with US interest rates remaining high and stock prices falling due to a risk-off sentiment, the interest rate differential between Japan and the US is likely to lead to a continued battle at high levels.

Expected range

The expected range is around 155.00-155.80, with the upper limit indicating pullback selling pressure and the lower limit indicating the strength of buying interest on dips.

During Tokyo hours, we would like to observe price movements within the range and the volume imbalance to determine the direction after Europe.

tactics

Our basic stance is to respect the daily upward trend and buy on dips, avoid chasing high prices and wait for a correction phase.

If US interest rates and stock prices are stable as the price approaches the lower limit of the range, consider diversified buying. On the upper side, if the price is reaching a new high from the previous day and growth is sluggish, prioritize taking profits.

On the other hand, if the price clearly falls below the expected range, we will shelve the dip buying scenario and prepare for a short-term sell-off.

trigger

The upward trigger will determine whether the bullish trend will continue based on whether the previous day's high can be broken out and maintained at the closing price on a real basis.

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On the downside, if the 155.00 level is broken and becomes resistance, this will be a guide to confirm the scenario of an extended correction.

In terms of time, we focus on the initial movements immediately after the announcement of the US trade price index and industrial production, and the subsequent direction of their settlement.

Nullification Conditions

If the daily chart shows a pullback with a long upper shadow and the price breaks below the lower limit of the expected range, the dip buying assumption will be deemed invalid.

If stock prices fall and the yen strengthens simultaneously due to a sudden rise in Japanese long-term interest rates and reports of a change in the Bank of Japan's stance, the scenario of a continued strong dollar will need to be reconsidered.

Risk Event

Today, there is a concentration of indicators that are likely to affect interest rates and risk appetite, such as the US trade price index, industrial production, and US securities investment, and volatility is likely to increase depending on the results.

Japan's machinery orders, government comments, intervention speculation, and geopolitical risk headlines are also seen as factors that could cause sudden fluctuations.

Position Management

As trading will be in the high price range, new positions will be smaller than usual and opening and closing positions will be assumed to be divided into multiple steps.

Take profits frequently when the momentum of the previous day's high is slowing down or when short-term support is being broken, to avoid a sudden drop in unrealized profits.

It is safe to set a stop loss outside the expected range by a certain amount, and to mechanically execute it at a level that can be judged as a scenario collapse while withstanding the noise before and after the event.

Checklist

Are the results of major US indexes and the reaction of US interest rates and stock prices consistent?

Are there any changes in Japan's long-term interest rates or Bank of Japan-related headlines?

Is USDJPY still within the expected range or are there signs of a range breakout?

Market Summary

Although the market weakened the previous day, it only moved slightly, and the direction remained limited as the market searched for a pullback.

Today, with statements from European dignitaries and US employment and housing-related indicators on the horizon, the market is likely to be in a waiting-for-information mode.

The market will continue to search for lower prices near turning points, and in the short term, adjustments before events are likely to be the main focus.

Expected range

A range of late 1.15 to early 1.16 is expected.

There is a tendency for heavy trading on both the up and down sides to be noticed, and the market is likely to recover even if there are sudden fluctuations.

The price is likely to continue moving within a narrow range until a sense of direction emerges based on the results of the event.

tactics

The basic policy is to focus on range rotation and avoid extreme ups and downs.

By combining targeting pullbacks near key points with selling on rallies, we are responding with the assumption that the price will stay in the market for a short period of time.

Given the current situation where there is little sense of direction, we will refrain from expecting excessive price fluctuations and prioritize small profit-taking.

trigger

If the statements made by important figures during European trading hours are biased towards either hawkish or dovish, it could trigger short-term turmoil.

If the results of US employment and housing-related indicators deviate significantly from expectations, be wary of dollar-led fluctuations.

If the price breaks above the milestone, it will likely try to recover, and if it breaks below the milestone, it will likely move in the direction of the most recent low.

Nullification Conditions

If the price clearly falls below the milestone and continues to move slowly, expectations are likely to be disrupted.

A case where one-way flow becomes stronger after a European or American event, causing price movements to deviate from the range.

If short-term buybacks remain difficult, we will review our policy.

Risk Event

Statements by European dignitaries (multiple).

US employment and housing-related indicators.

Eurozone inflation-related statistics due the next day.

Position Management

The size will be set conservatively to allow for fluctuations before and after the event.

Prioritize small profit taking and make frequent adjustments within the expected range.

Stop losses are determined by calmly following predetermined conditions such as breaking a milestone or a slowdown in recovery.

Checklist

Are the tones of statements by European dignitaries biased?

Will dollar-led fluctuations in US employment and housing indicators intensify?

Is the range between the milestones continuing?

Market Summary

While the UK's growth indicators are sluggish and the central bank's cautious stance is being taken into consideration, expectations of interest rate cuts in the US are being adjusted, and the market environment continues to support the dollar.

Although there were attempts to move upward on the previous day against the backdrop of overseas flows, the market was unable to surpass the milestone, and the situation remains one of cross-holding as buying at dips and a sluggish recovery are in balance.

Adjustments ahead of the event are likely to continue today, and the focus in the market will likely be on which direction the market will break out of the holding range.

Expected range

The expected range is around 1.31 on the lower side and around 1.32 on the upper side.

In the short term, there will be a mix of selling on rallies and buying on dips, with limited direction.

This makes it easy for the offensive and defensive play to continue around key points.

tactics

Keep your eyes on the range rotation, and respond in small increments while checking the reaction near the upper and lower milestones.

Buying is done after confirming that the price is hesitating to fall in the lower price range, and selling is done after confirming that the price is slowing to recover in the upper price range.

Avoid holding on to positions too long and focus on short-term completion.

trigger

On the upside, keep an eye on the fact that the trend is likely to change if it clearly breaks above the 1.32 level.

On the downside, keep in mind that if the price continues to fall below 1.31 and settle, the adjustment is likely to deepen.

Pay attention to situations where the direction of the dollar changes based on US indicators (prices, production, and US securities investment) during New York time.

Nullification Conditions

If it breaks through the 1.32 level with force and settles in the upper range with a recovery, the expected range will be pushed back.

Even if the break below 1.31 does not last as expected and a strong rebound forms a support base, the scenario of breaking down the range will be invalid for the time being.

When a sudden headline causes a liquidity imbalance, causing prices to stagnate outside the expected range.

Risk Event

Statistics related to rice prices.

Rice production indicators and capacity utilization rates.

US foreign securities flows.

Position Management

The size is smaller than usual, and emphasis is placed on balance, not tilting too much to one side.

Take profits gradually just before milestones, and be mindful of not aiming for too much growth.

Stop losses are executed mechanically when the price clearly deviates from the target range, taking into account the most recent fluctuation range.

Checklist

Confirmed that position adjustments are likely to intensify before UK indicators

US indexes identify times when the dollar is likely to fluctuate in the short term

Determine whether the price movement at the turning point will continue in the range

Market Summary

With the Australian minutes due to be released, uncertainty over monetary policy was a concern, and concerns over US interest rate trends also weighed on the upside.

The global stock market downturn dampened risk appetite, causing the Australian dollar to struggle to recover.

The previous day saw prices gradually fall to lower lows, with short-term rebounds limited.

Today we are looking at the reaction to the news and exploring whether the market will continue to test the lower end.

Expected range

The lower limit is expected to be around 0.6450, and the upper limit is expected to be around 0.6550.

In the short term, the price range will narrow slightly, and investors will be waiting for further information.

In situations where it is difficult to get a sense of direction, you want to avoid excessive vertical movement.

tactics

Our basic policy is to focus on selling on rebounds, and respond carefully while checking the strength of the upper limit.

Buying on dips tends to have a limited price range and is considered suitable for short-term trading.

If the fluctuations increase due to the material, do not force it, but wait and see the reaction before making a decision.

trigger

A change in tone in the Australian minutes during Asian hours will provide clues as to direction

A breakout above around 0.6500 is a good indication to consider revising your sell-back criteria.

A break below the 0.6450 level is likely to strengthen the bearish bias.

Nullification Conditions

If Australian-related factors are stronger than expected and the price remains stable at 0.6530

If risk appetite improves due to falling US interest rates and rising stock prices, the Australian dollar will be bought back widely

When selling does not continue even after testing the lower end, and a rebound trend clearly takes hold

Risk Event

The contents and interpretation of the Australian proceedings summary

Market sentiment and interest rate trends ahead of US data releases

Changes in risk appetite due to stock market fluctuations

Position Management

The position is lighter than usual, and priority is given to checking fluctuations after the material is released.

When taking profits, we focus on short price ranges and make early adjustments near turning points.

Loss cuts are executed mechanically according to the criteria of the most recent recovery high and bottom break.

Checklist

Change in tone of Australian minutes

Direction of US interest rates and stock prices

Reactions confirmed around 0.6500 and 0.6450

Looking back

The test of highs in Europe did not continue, but in New York, interest rates led to a slight increase in the previous day's high.

summary

During European trading hours, the market continued to trade in the high range but failed to break out above the high range, resulting in a lack of direction.

During New York trading hours, the recovery of US interest rates was in focus, creating a market environment favorable for dollar buying.

As a result, the price slightly exceeded the previous day's high, and interest rate-linked price movements dominated the day.

Although there were temporary fluctuations up and down, the flow itself was relatively straightforward and the reaction to the material was calm.

Today's price movements

The European market started off with a test of the high range, and the upward trend remained.

After that, the upside was heavy amid a mix of buying and selling, and no clear breakthrough was achieved.

As New York time approached, dollar buying became dominant due to interest rate trends, and upward movements were once again in focus.

The stock price remained in the high range throughout the day, and ended trading slightly above the previous day's high.

Background/materials

US long-term interest rates recovered during New York trading hours, creating an environment conducive to dollar buying in response to interest rate differentials.

During European trading hours, a lack of material made it difficult to determine direction, and the market continued to fluctuate around the high range.

Japan's factors were limited, and interest rates in the US were seen as the main driver.

There was no sign of excessive risk appetite or risk aversion in the market as a whole, and the mood remained calm.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

After struggling in the high range, the price has risen slightly, and there appears to be limited room for further short-term declines.

For the short-term line, the high point in European trading hours is a benchmark, and whether or not it can be broken through will likely affect the next direction.

The short-term focus is whether the recovery trend during New York time will be maintained, and fluctuations remained relatively stable.

Although there were up and down fluctuations in the short term, the direction itself continued to be linked to interest rate trends.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the upward trend continues, and the market is likely to become more aware of the battles around turning points.

While there have been some adjustments, the overall trend has been maintained, and the situation remains favorable for buying at dips.

The price has been stuck in the high range for a long time, and the level considered to be the support zone is gradually rising.

The situation will remain susceptible to interest rate trends in the medium term, and it will be essential to check the external environment when making decisions about the direction of the market.

Impressions

The price movements for the day reacted directly to the return of interest rates, and it can be said that the market was clearly biased by the information.

Although there were temporary fluctuations up and down, the situation did not lead to excessive risk-taking and the impression was calm.

Although there was some pushback, the reaction around the turning point was stable, and market participants were moderately cautious.

Overall, the market was relatively stable, and it was a day where the market was prone to reacting to interest rate-related indicators and comments.

Trading Impressions

While confirming the heavy upper limit during European trading hours, the market conditions were favorable for trading in line with interest rate trends during New York trading hours.

Rather than being overly directional, it would be better to respond in small increments while checking the reaction at higher prices.

It was important to note that the market remained in a shallow pullback condition, and the extent of short-term adjustments was likely to be limited.

I have the impression that by carefully tracking reactions around turning points, we were able to respond in a way that minimized risk.

Checklist

Revisit interest rate trends intraday

Carefully observe reactions around turning points

Maintain a strategy that doesn't lean too much towards one direction

Looking back

During European trading hours, although the improving economic outlook provided support, the upside was heavy, and towards the end of the New York session selling became dominant, causing the price to fall below the previous day's low.

summary

In Europe, the market was limited in its ability to break out above the target due to pending selling in anticipation of a rebound, and the market fluctuated slightly up and down within a range.

Interest rates remained somewhat strong during New York trading hours, limiting any recovery and slowing down euro buying momentum.

Overall, there was little sense of direction, and the situation continued in which the upper limit was heavy in the short term.

Today's price movements

Asian trading continued the same trend as the previous day, with little fluctuation between key levels.

After entering Europe, the price briefly tested the lows, but even when it recovered, it was unable to sustain a breakout and remained within a range.

In New York, interest rates were expected to recover, leading to a move below the previous day's lows while a recovery was suppressed.

Background/materials

The improved growth outlook for the eurozone has helped to avoid excessive euro selling.

Although US indicators showed some weakness, the market reaction was limited, and the overall situation was lacking in clues as to the direction of the market.

With financial authorities due to make comments, interest rate trends and risk attitudes will determine the market on this day.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the price avoided breaking below the main support band, but the recovery was weak, and the price continued to be focused on the lower end of the range.

The short-term moving average was flat, showing a balanced buying and selling situation.

The reaction was slow at the upper resistance zone, and the situation continued in which the short-term lack of strength was easily noticed.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, cross-shareholdings will continue, and the situation remains unclear.

The market was unable to clearly surpass the major recovery level, and as a whole, it was easy to maintain a wait-and-see stance.

Although there was some buying back at the lower end, no clear trend was formed.

Impressions

The information was sporadic and judgments were divided, and the market seemed to maintain a cautious stance, particularly regarding interest rate trends.

Even with support from Europe, the recovery was limited, highlighting the lack of directionality in the overall market.

Trading Impressions

In the short term, the recovery phase is lacking momentum, and the reaction at the upper resistance zone is weak, so it seems that a cautious approach is needed.

Even when the price was testing the lower end, there was a certain degree of strength in buying back, and it seemed that the price continued to fluctuate slightly within the range.

Checklist

Check the maintenance status of the main support belt

Keeping an eye on interest rate trends and related market reactions

Reviewing the position of European indicators and official statements

Looking back

During European trading hours, the market briefly tried to move downwards, but the upside was heavy, and during New York trading hours, the market remained directional, waiting for new information.

summary

Caution continued ahead of the UK price index release, and trade was dominated by caution due to concerns about fiscal uncertainty.

There was some buying when the market tried to recover, but the momentum did not continue and the price did not move beyond the milestone.

During New York time, there was a lack of clues, and a wait-and-see stance within a range prevailed.

Today's price movements

Downward pressure prevailed in the early stages of the European market, and although there was a gradual recovery afterwards, the upside remained suppressed.

Selling prevailed near the milestone, and the price range remained limited.

Even after New York time began, no clear direction emerged, and trading volume remained stable with little imbalance.

Background/materials

Attention was focused on UK price trends, which were seen as an important point to check in predicting the outlook for the next monetary policy.

The persistent cautious stance regarding domestic fiscal management has been one factor in limiting the pound's upside in the foreign exchange market.

The US side also lacked any major clues, and trading remained calm, driven by supply and demand.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The reaction around the turning point was heavy, and it was considered that the market was prone to sell-offs.

On the short-term axis, the trend continues to be directional and is unlikely to be biased either upward or downward.

The battle for the base line continued, and many believed that a clear breakthrough was needed.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

The high range continues to be suppressed, and the slow recovery remains a concern.

Buybacks have been observed at mid-term milestones, but the dominance has not yet been skewed to one side.

The price continued to move within a wide range, and additional information was needed to determine the direction.

Impressions

There was a lack of positive signs in both Europe and New York, and the overall cautious stance stood out.

The market remains calm, with few indicators or statements from key figures.

Participants' attention was shifting to the next material, and they continued to take a wait-and-see approach.

Trading Impressions

The short-term recovery was slow, and careful buying and selling was required after confirming the reaction.

There is room to pick up small reversals within the range, but it is difficult to follow the trend unreasonably.

It was appropriate to avoid excessive risk and manage the market based on the narrow price range.

Checklist

Milestone Reactions

Direction of price indicators

Liquidity situation during European and US time

Looking back

Although the price temporarily fell during Tokyo time, bargain hunting helped the price maintain its lows for the day.

summary

Australian wage indicators were as expected and lacked any new direction, leading to a weak early market, continuing the previous day's trend.

As the attitude of assessing the trend of US interest rates spreads, buying back came in, which did not lead to excessive selling and limited downside.

In New York, while there was awareness of a recovery in US long-term interest rates, bargain hunting also took place, resulting in a calm trend.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, the price tested near the previous day's low and was pushed down, but after the selling was over, buying gradually became dominant

European trading hours lacked a positive sense of direction, but remained firm as investors waited for US indicators

In New York, dollar buying was seen against the backdrop of a recovery in US interest rates, but AUD was also picked up on dips and the trend was to consolidate its lower level.

Background/materials

The Australian wage index came in as expected, and the market reaction was limited, with a lack of material for the Australian dollar being taken into consideration.

Global stock price trends and risk attitudes remain unstable, and the currency's position as a commodity currency means that its upside is limited.

The impact of US interest rate adjustments remained strong, and interest rates and dollar movements influenced the market's direction.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the market continues to trade around the previous day's low, and there is a certain amount of buying demand at the dips.

The price continues to move around the moving average line, and although there is little sense of direction, the trend is to check the lower end.

In the short-term recovery phase, the upper resistance zone was taken into consideration, limiting momentum.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the market will continue to trade near the lower end of the range, and the cautious sentiment will remain.

The position of the moving average line indicated a slow recovery, and the market continued to lack direction.

There is a lack of material to judge the medium-term trend, and the market is now waiting to see changes in the external environment.

Impressions

The Australian index was as expected, lacking any basis for determining strength or weakness, and price movements remained within a stable range.

On the other hand, there was also buying at the lower end, and it was notable that the market was not dominated by selling.

Fluctuations in interest rates and stock prices continue to be a concern, and the market tends to react primarily to external factors.

Trading Impressions

Buybacks from the downward pressure near the previous day's low were confirmed, and short-term contrarian strategies were effective in some situations.

On the other hand, the upside remained heavy and it was difficult to follow the recovery, so careful entry was required.

In the absence of a sense of direction, limiting price ranges seemed effective.

Checklist

Check market liquidity and interest rate trends

Reexamining the impact of Australian indicators and risk attitudes

Continue checking the reaction near the lower end of the range