Market Summary

With the recovery of US long-term interest rates, the market continues to test the upper limit, and there is a sense that it will remain in the high range.

Today, with the release of US housing-related indicators and minutes looming, the focus will be on reactions to interest rate trends.

During Tokyo hours, it is difficult to determine the market's direction, and the market continues to wait for external information.

Overall, price movements tend to be narrower around milestones, and the market is prone to fluctuations both up and down.

Expected range

We expect the downside to be a level where the price will be pushed down to a turning point.

The upper limit is expected to return to near the most recent high.

We need to be mindful of the short-term spread of the virus before and after the event.

Liquidity is likely to change depending on the time of day, so following up requires careful consideration.

tactics

Our basic policy is to consider buying on dips.

During times of large short-term fluctuations, it is effective to suppress new directional trends and adjust them after confirmation.

It is important to assess the reaction around turning points and be flexible in deciding whether to increase or withdraw purchases.

During events, it is advisable to avoid excessive following and wait for price movements to stabilize.

trigger

As for the upward direction, the deciding factor will be whether the price clearly breaks above the milestone.

On the downside, the focus will be on whether the price will break below the most recent support level.

If US housing-related indicators or the minutes of the meeting move interest rates, we will need to keep a close eye on the direction of their initial movements.

Flow factors are strong during Tokyo time, so reevaluation during European and American time is key.

Nullification Conditions

If you are planning to buy on dips, a clear breach of the most recent support level will be a reason to reassess your tactics.

Limited reaction after the event and continued stalling around milestones can also contribute to the negation of assumptions.

When a short-term trend is rapidly reversed, it is necessary to reconsider your judgment.

Any unidirectional movements during periods of low liquidity also require careful reassessment.

Risk Event

US housing-related indicators (construction starts and permits)

Release of minutes related to U.S. monetary policy

Sudden fluctuations in stock indexes and interest rates

Position Management

The size should be smaller than usual, and it is best to prioritize adjustments before the event.

It is effective to aim to take profits just before a turning point and not to drag the price down too much.

It is desirable to take a thorough mechanical approach to cut losses, based on the most recent support level being broken.

If you hold multiple positions, splitting them into multiple positions is an effective way to reduce risk.

Checklist

Check interest rate reaction to US housing data and minutes

Understand the trading flow at key points and the stability of price movements

Keep an eye on the reassessment of direction during Western time

Market Summary

The previous day saw a rise in US long-term interest rates weighing on the market, and the euro/dollar was expected to recover slowly.

Speculation over US monetary policy and caution over future European indicators continue, making the market susceptible to fluctuations in interest rates and stock prices.

Today we need to carefully assess whether the trend toward lower prices that spread yesterday will continue.

Expected range

The downside is the range from the previous day's low to the most recent pullback zone.

The upside is likely to be heavy around the most recent recovery high and psychological turning points.

Basically, the main scenario is fluctuations within the price range of the previous day, while taking into consideration the risk of temporary expansion during events.

tactics

The basic stance is based on range rotation, and when the market swings upward, prioritize selling on pullbacks.

In a downtrend, carefully consider pullbacks when signs of a bottoming out appear in the short term.

trigger

Check price movements before and after European trading hours and whether there will be any changes in the battle for the previous day's lows

Consider when interest rates and stock prices fluctuate significantly in the same direction around US indicators or statements by important figures as a trigger for short-term direction.

If the market enters Europe with only a limited recovery during Asian trading hours, we will need to pay some attention to downward pressure during European trading hours.

Nullification Conditions

If the price clearly surpasses the previous day's high and remains in that high range, the scenario of a sell-off advantage will be shelved for the time being.

If the price falls below the previous day's low and then rebounds sharply, and closes near the high, it is necessary to reconsider the outlook.

When the price has been outside the expected range for a long period of time and a trend with a sense of direction accompanied by volume emerges, it is a time to return to a flat trend.

Risk Event

Sudden changes in interest rates following comments on U.S. monetary policy and related indicators

Changes in the Eurozone outlook due to surprises in European economic and inflation-related indicators

Changes in risk appetite due to large swings in stock markets and commodity prices

Position Management

Keep overall position size slightly smaller than usual, and carefully consider new entries before and after the event.

Take profits gradually at turning points within the expected range, and even when aiming for growth, only leave a portion of the profits.

When cutting losses, use the previous day's highs and lows and the most recent milestones as the basis, and be mindful of the stance of mechanically executing them when unexpected price movements are confirmed.

Checklist

Are the trends of US long-term interest rates and major stock indexes aligned?

Is there a big gap between the results of the European index and the reaction of the euro/dollar?

Is the relationship between the previous day's high and low prices and today's price range consistent with the range forecast in advance?

Market Summary

The pound-dollar pair remains on a wait-and-see basis as investors continue to wait to see the direction of UK price indicators and fiscal policy.

The previous day saw fluctuations, but the price remained within a range and no clear direction was apparent.

With major events coming up today, the market is likely to be dominated by short-term investors as investors wait for the next piece of news.

Expected range

Today's main scenario is a range of around 1.30 to 1.33.

On the downside, there is a tendency for buying on dips just before 1.30, and on the upside, there is a tendency for selling on rebounds around 1.33.

Unless there are any major surprises, we would like to follow the price movements assuming that they will fluctuate within this range.

tactics

The basic policy is to keep in mind the range rotation and not chase extreme breaks.

Consider buying on dips at the bottom and selling on rallies at the top separately and prepare entry patterns for each scenario.

Before and after the event, we expect temporary widening of spreads and volatility, so we recommend careful selection of new entries.

trigger

On the upside, we will use the short-term rebound scenario as a guideline to see if there is a clear test of the 1.33 level after European trading hours.

On the downside, whether there is a strong trend of considering a break below 1.30 during London time is a possible sign of a break below the range.

We will also be keeping an eye on headlines surrounding UK inflation, fiscal comments, and the US monetary policy stance.

Nullification Conditions

If the closing price reaches the 1.33 range and starts to act as a pullback, we will reconsider the scenario assuming a sell-off.

On the other hand, if the price clearly breaks below 1.30 and the downward trend accelerates, we will reduce our range-based tactics.

If sudden fluctuations continue in a short period of time, the reliability of the technical indicators will decrease, so refrain from making any excessive purchases or sales.

Risk Event

Announcements and statements by key figures regarding UK price indicators and fiscal policy are factors that can easily influence the direction of the pound.

In the US, statements regarding the stance of monetary policy and related indicators are likely to have an impact on the cross market through dollar interest rate expectations.

If the results differ significantly from expectations or surprises emerge, be wary of temporary range breaks and increased volatility.

Position Management

Before and after the event, reduce position size to allow for margin to withstand unexpected price fluctuations.

It is best to set your profit target slightly ahead near the upper limit of the range, and not be too greedy when entering near the lower limit.

Place stop losses outside the trigger price range to avoid overtrading on consecutive headlines

Checklist

Have you checked the UK price index, fiscal schedule, and whether there were any statements by important figures?

Are you aware of indicators and scheduled statements that could affect the U.S. monetary policy stance, and are you taking note of key time periods?

Have you checked the quality and pattern of price movements around 1.30 and 1.33 and organized clues as to whether the range will continue or break out?

Market Summary

While wages and prices in Australia are showing signs of stability, the strong dollar and unstable stock prices have combined to create a lack of direction.

The previous day, the price gradually fell to its lowest point, but the lower limit was maintained, and after that, the trend of picking up the dips became dominant.

The focus today is on whether there will be another test of the lower end, and the sluggish reaction to the rebound will likely be noticed.

Expected range

Small fluctuations centered around the range of late 0.64 to early 0.65

If the external environment stabilizes, there will be an attempt to recover to the 0.65 range.

If risk aversion intensifies, pressure will move towards the mid-0.64 range

tactics

The basic principle is to focus on range rotation while responding flexibly to short-term fluctuations

If the downward trend becomes stronger, we will carefully pick up the dips.

Consider selling on pullbacks when the upward reaction is sluggish

trigger

The upward trend is clearly above the low 0.65 range.

The downward trend is below the mid-0.64 range.

Times when US indexes and interest rates react more strongly

Nullification Conditions

Stable trend above the mid-0.65 range

Price movements rapidly collapse to the low 0.64 range

Unexpected one-way movements due to sudden changes in external risks

Risk Event

Publication of US interest rate-related indicators

Australian Business Sentiment Leading Index

Fluctuations in risk sentiment linked to stock price fluctuations

Position Management

Adjust the size to be smaller than usual

Take profits based on the upper limit of the most recent range

Stop loss is when the price clearly breaks the downward milestone

Checklist

Will the dollar be biased in response to US indicators?

Are Australia-related indicators maintaining their tone?

Are stock price and risk asset movements spreading to the Australian dollar?

Looking back

With no clear indication of restraint from the authorities and expectations of intervention receding, selling of the yen prevailed, and the day saw a continued test of the upper limit led by overseas markets.

summary

During Tokyo trading hours, there was a lack of material and a lack of direction, but dollar buying became dominant after Europe, and the trend strengthened.

It is striking that the decline in concerns about intervention following the authorities' comments has affected market sentiment, creating an environment in which the yen is more likely to be sold.

In New York, the pullback was shallow and the upward trend was maintained, and short-term supply and demand supported the dollar throughout the day.

Overall, the impression was that uncertainty surrounding monetary and exchange policies had subsided somewhat, making it easier for straightforward flows to emerge.

Today's price movements

During Tokyo hours, the market was mostly trading within a narrow range, with the impression that prices continued to move cautiously while confirming speculation regarding intervention.

After entering Europe, buying became dominant, and with the addition of overseas flows, the upward bias strengthened.

In New York, the pullback was limited, and the situation was prone to intermittent buying, continuing the trend from the previous day.

Throughout the day, the market continued to test the high range, and the market gradually rose while also dealing with pullback selling.

Background/materials

Even after the meeting between the Governor of the Bank of Japan and financial authorities, no concrete measures were taken, and concerns about intervention have waned, which is seen as a factor in the selling of the yen.

With few clues from domestic indicators and no significant changes to the current stance on monetary policy, attention will be focused on relative interest rate differentials

In the US, interest rate expectations are likely to fluctuate ahead of major indicators, and the wait-and-see attitude is one factor that makes it easier to pick up on dollar weakness.

Overall, policy-related uncertainty receded somewhat, making it a day where flows were more likely to be the main drivers of activity.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the market continues to test the high range, and the shallowness of the pullback suggests a buying-dominant market.

On the other hand, there is a sense of overheating in short-term indicators, and we need to be prepared for a downturn in the event of a sudden reversal.

A situation where you want to carefully check the reaction near shallow pushes and turning points and decide whether to follow suit.

If the upward movement in the short-term chart slows down, be aware that there may be room for a correction.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, an upward bias is maintained, making it easier for pullbacks to act as support.

However, depending on the stance of the authorities and the external environment, the battle over the milestone is likely to intensify, and it is expected that there will be times when it will be difficult to determine the direction.

If we expand the period, the price continues to move in the high range, and we need to see whether the trend will continue or whether the adjustment will intensify.

Multiple moving averages are seen as support, and unless there is any unexpected news, the market will likely maintain a moderate trend.

Impressions

On this day, the change in market sentiment due to the government's statements was clearly evident, and it appeared that the decline in caution boosted the flow.

In the short term, there is a sense of overheating, so a flexible perspective is required, without being biased in one direction.

As policy-related views have settled down, it seems that there is a tendency for the reaction to the next piece of information to be large.

Trading Impressions

While carefully picking up pullbacks and shallow rallies in the high range, it seems that they want to respond quickly to changes in the trend.

In the short term, it seems more advantageous to take profits in small increments, and it is advisable not to hold on to your holdings too long.

Although the mid-term trend is being maintained, it is prone to fluctuation depending on the material, so it is important to adjust position size.

It is best not to force following near turning points, and maintain a stance of entering only after checking the reaction.

Checklist

Are there any changes in official statements and policy-related headlines?

Is there a bias in price movements during times when overseas flows are more likely to occur?

Have you reconfirmed your risk management and whether there is a sense of short-term overheating?

Looking back

The uncertainty surrounding the eurozone weighed on the market, and while the markets continued to fluctuate from Tokyo to Europe, dollar buying was prominent in New York.

summary

The euro remained in a position where its upside was easily limited due to concerns about uncertainty over business sentiment and interest rates.

In the US, despite a cautious stance ahead of the data, factors suggesting resilience supported dollar preference.

Overall, the market sentiment was more inclined towards the dollar as investors waited to see how the market reacted to the news.

Today's price movements

In Tokyo and Europe, it was difficult to gauge the direction of the market, and prices mainly moved within a limited range.

In New York, market participants were quick to react to news, and dollar buying momentum increased.

Although buying and selling were mixed around the milestone, the euro's recovery was limited

Background/materials

The outlook for eurozone economic sentiment and interest rates was received with caution, making it difficult for buying to spread.

In the US, signs of strength supported the dollar, although a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the event continued.

As for the overall market sentiment, the difference in opinion between the US and Europe was likely to influence preferences for currencies.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The recovery was slow in the short term, and the market was aware of the structure that made it easy for selling to occur at the top.

Buybacks were likely to occur at the lower end of the price range, and the battle continued in a narrow range.

Although there was little sense of direction, it was notable that the flow tended to change during New York time.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, a gradual downward bias continued, and the recovery phase lacked strength.

There was an increase in offense and defense at key junctures, making it difficult to judge the sustainability of the momentum.

The market remained susceptible to pressure changes depending on interest rate expectations in the US and Europe.

Impressions

The euro was short on material, requiring careful handling of the rebound.

The market was sensitive to US and European indicators, and there was a tendency to tolerate short-term fluctuations.

Although the overall trend was not biased in one direction, the dollar was seen to be dominant.

Trading Impressions

As the market has been in a range for a long time, the focus was on confirming a rebound or a rebound rather than following suit.

The flow of time in New York is changeable, so I have the impression that switching strategies depending on the time of day was effective.

It was necessary to carefully assess the reaction around turning points

Checklist

Changes in US and European economic sentiment and interest rate expectations

Strength of reaction to materials during New York time

Which is more dominant, a rebound or a push?

Looking back

Selling intensified during European trading hours, and dollar buying became dominant during New York trading hours, causing the pair to fall below a certain range that had been considered a holding pattern.

summary

The slowdown in UK inflation has increased speculation about when interest rates will be cut, which has limited the pound's upside.

In the US, interest rate expectations continued to fluctuate ahead of major indicators, making the market more likely to favor dollar buying.

As a result, the market fell below the level that was considered to be a holding pattern, and it was a day that saw a change in the short-term trend.

Today's price movements

From the beginning of the European session, the pound was prone to selling, and downward pressure prevailed with limited recovery.

Dollar buying accelerated during New York trading hours, causing the price to fall below a level that was considered a turning point.

Although there were ups and downs, the overall trend remained downward throughout the day.

Background/materials

The pound was weakened by a slowdown in UK inflation figures and growing speculation about when interest rates would be cut.

In the US, interest rate expectations were volatile ahead of major indicators, creating an environment in which demand for dollars was likely to increase.

Overall, it was a day in which the rate was affected by changes in views on UK and US monetary policy.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

The rally was limited and the recent support level was broken, so the short-term bias was towards the downside.

The rebound near the moving average was weak, and short-term buybacks were limited.

The short-term chart structure continued to favor selling on a pullback.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

In the medium term, the price has fallen below the lower limit of the range that was seen as a holding range, and a change in the trend has become apparent.

At the top, multiple sell-off points overlapped, and it continued to take time for the price to turn upward.

The price was trading below the medium-term moving average, and a cautious stance was required.

Impressions

The information and the charts point in the same direction, and it seems like a day dominated by selling.

In particular, there was consistency in the trend from European time to New York time, and the up and down movements were limited.

This was a time when the short-term trend had shifted, and we needed to carefully observe the strength of the future recovery.

Trading Impressions

It was easy to see the slow recovery around the turning point, and the conditions for short-term selling were easily met.

There were times when the movement became rough temporarily before and after the indicator, so I felt that adjusting the size was effective.

While caution is required when following a downward trend, participation after a recovery is relatively easy.

Checklist

How interest rate expectations in the UK and the US changed during the day

Strength of rebound after cross-holding floor

Was there any consistency in the Europe-New York trend?

Looking back

The previous day, amid a lack of direction in Tokyo and Europe, dollar buying prevailed during New York trading, pushing down the Australian dollar.

summary

With Australian wage-related indicators in the spotlight, the market remained cautious as investors waited for further information.

In the US, caution ahead of the event was strong, and dollar-friendly flows weighed on the Australian dollar

The market was also limited in its reaction to the resource market and China-related trends, making it difficult for any attempt at a recovery to take hold.

Today's price movements

Tokyo and Europe were in a state of flux, with a lack of material making it difficult to determine the direction.

As New York trading began, buying of the US dollar became dominant, and downward pressure on the Australian dollar intensified.

The recovery was suppressed early on, and the day was marked by a trend in the low range.

Background/materials

Australian wage indicators were in the spotlight, and the market was keen to assess the sustainability of inflation.

In the US, with major events coming up, there was a general sense of risk aversion in price movements.

The resource market and China-related news generated limited reaction, making it difficult to actively buy back the Australian dollar.

Technical Memo (Short Term)

In the short term, the market is likely to see a sell-off, and the chart shows that the price is heavy on the upside.

The short-term moving average line was trending downward, and it was striking how slow the reaction was to the rebound.

In the short term, the price is stagnating in the low range, making it difficult for the price to continue to rebound.

Technical Memo (Mid-term)

Although it is difficult to determine the direction in the medium term, there are intermittent movements to test the lower end.

While buying support is being seen at major turning points, the market is also likely to hit a ceiling.

The stock price continued to move at the lower end of the medium-term cross-shareholding range, and a bias in price movements was observed.

Impressions

As the dollar continues to dominate overall, the Australian dollar appears unlikely to attempt a self-sustaining recovery.

The impact of Australia and China-related factors is limited, and the environment remains susceptible to external risks in the short term.

It is necessary to continue to carefully monitor the reaction to the recovery phase.

Trading Impressions

In the short term, there was a strong tendency to sell on rebounds, and there were many instances where the momentum of the rebound was slow.

There were times when the market was affected by the flow before and after the event, and it seemed like they wanted to avoid deciding on a direction too early.

It was a day when I felt it would be safer not to push too hard, but to check the reaction at each milestone and then consider entering.

Checklist

Australian and US index results and market reaction

Resource market and China-related news

Checking price movements in the recovery phase on short-term charts